Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitesse
Utrecht		37.8%
35.4%		26.8%
+325
-114
+265
-105
3
1		-0.71963-0.66649-0.66118
Fortuna Sittard
VVV-Venlo		35.2%
39.3%		25.5%
+116
+234
+110
+225
3
1		-0.34298-0.34655-0.75018
RKC Waalwijk
Sparta Rotterdam		24.5%
55.3%		20.1%
+277
+103
+300
-110
0
2		-0.75466-0.69693-0.36709
Emmen
Groningen		17.2%
67.8%		15.0%
+280
+114
+295
+105
1
1		-0.69695-0.69558-0.91172
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		19.0%
66.2%		14.8%
+410
-161
+390
-165
1
4		-0.52106-0.52157-0.25260
Heracles Almelo
ADO Den Haag		53.6%
24.8%		21.6%
-141
+410
-165
+450
2
1		-0.20946-0.18988-0.38018
Heerenveen
Willem II		41.5%
33.1%		25.5%
+137
+187
+155
+165
1
3		-1.09844-1.02449-0.81252
Sparta Rotterdam
VVV-Venlo		37.5%
36.8%		25.7%
-104
+292
-110
+300
1
0		-0.40573-0.39020-0.68369
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse		45.3%
29.8%		24.9%
+114
+235
+110
+235
1
2		-0.94212-0.95368-0.92382
Zwolle
Heracles Almelo		30.3%
45.4%		24.3%
+245
+116
+250
+105
1
2		-0.48618-0.46104-0.51061
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard		62.9%
21.5%		15.6%
-213
+540
-220
+525
3
1		-0.20669-0.20923-0.29338
Groningen
Ajax		14.9%
72.0%		13.1%
+1683
-714
+1100
-425
1
3		-0.06198-0.09798-0.18832
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk		58.9%
22.4%		18.7%
-189
+554
-200
+475
2
1		-0.21012-0.23179-0.32225
ADO Den Haag
Heerenveen		19.2%
65.5%		15.3%
+464
-169
+500
-170
0
3		-0.24859-0.23485-0.25710
Willem II
Twente		30.8%
45.0%		24.2%
+307
-109
+375
-145
1
1		-0.76235-0.82113-0.71090
VVV-Venlo
Feyenoord		18.9%
67.0%		14.1%
+1238
-476
+1100
-475
0
6		-0.08658-0.09610-0.24860
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99440 
Sportsbooks20-0-0 (0.500)2 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60590
0.38850

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.