Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 25, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk 		64.8%
15.3%		19.9%
-115
+265

2.10
0.92		3.02
o3-110
u3-110

Zwolle
Feyenoord 		11.5%
72.0%		16.4%
+800
-345

0.89
2.48		3.37
o3¼+102
u3¼-122

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ajax
Willem II		82.5%
6.0%		11.5%
-300
+750

2
1		-0.33917-0.19231
Twente
Zwolle		40.2%
33.9%		25.8%
+100
+255

1
1		-1.36900-1.35460
AZ Alkmaar
Heracles Almelo		64.2%
15.5%		20.3%
+108
+245

0
1		-1.28562-1.86304
Groningen
Utrecht		32.0%
40.2%		27.7%
+310
-105

1
3		-0.71398-0.91063
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam		41.0%
33.4%		25.6%
+300
-115

1
3		-0.67264-1.09784
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard		64.6%
15.9%		19.4%
-205
+580

2
0		-0.44272-0.43634
Heracles Almelo
RKC Waalwijk		54.9%
21.2%		23.8%
+190
+140

0
0		-1.29891-1.43410
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen		50.8%
24.3%		24.9%
-230
+550

3
1		-0.43151-0.67710
Fortuna Sittard
Twente		26.3%
49.7%		24.0%
+625
-260

1
1		-1.64320-1.42766
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
+165
+151

1
0		-1.03423-1.35837
Willem II
Heerenveen		23.9%
52.8%		23.3%
+500
-195

1
3		-0.47768-0.63925
Groningen
Feyenoord		21.1%
54.5%		24.5%
+650
-244

1
4		-0.40866-0.60787
RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar		4.8%
84.6%		10.6%
+1100
-455

2
2		-1.94024-2.24517
Twente
Heracles Almelo		32.8%
40.5%		26.7%
-112
+295

1
2		-1.42770-0.90426
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven		55.9%
21.7%		22.3%
+440
-190

2
0		-1.73812-0.58073
Heerenveen
Utrecht		28.8%
46.2%		25.0%
+300
-111

0
2		-0.68762-0.77234
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.