Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%


1.09
0.94		2.03


Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Braga		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+700
-230
+725
-220
0
1		-0.42204-0.42317-0.33440
Tondela
Nacional		30.4%
38.5%		31.1%
+220
+145
+220
+135
1
3		-0.93843-0.90372-0.95493
Benfica
Moreirense		62.7%
15.9%		21.4%
-250
+725
-275
+775
4
0		-0.38361-0.36057-0.46654
Vitoria
Rio Ave		41.6%
29.4%		29.0%
+144
+212
+145
+205
1
0		-0.93869-0.94348-0.87724
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+169
+191
+180
+185
0
0		-1.13476-1.11621-1.45192
Porto
Tondela		79.9%
6.3%		13.8%
-350
+950
-425
+1250
2
0		-0.31288-0.26035-0.22418
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
+129
+225
+115
+245
2
1		-0.87486-0.81340-0.41960
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+166
+183
+160
+190
1
1		-1.17073-1.18215-1.28801
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		27.5%
43.1%		29.4%
+178
+172
+165
+190
1
1		-1.16890-1.16398-1.22350
Tondela
Gil Vicente FC		27.6%
42.9%		29.5%
+445
-149
+500
-165
1
0		-1.74997-1.84288-1.28649
Benfica
Nacional		71.6%
10.4%		18.0%
-290
+700
-240
+600
2
1		-0.35539-0.39591-0.33428
Famalicao
Moreirense		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+140
+212
+125
+235
2
2		-1.21164-1.22806-1.31174
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+725
-256
+750
-260
1
2		-0.38148-0.37459-0.36823
Porto
Famalicao		76.9%
8.6%		14.5%
-156
+475
-170
+475
1
0		-0.53425-0.51184-0.26276
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+725
-260
+750
2
1		-0.39487-0.37459-0.42975
Vitoria
Tondela		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+150
+197
+175
+175
1
0		-0.97389-1.06025-0.58875
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.68024 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.66344 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.64466
0.03557
0.01878

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).