Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/27/2025 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Vitoria	23.0% 50.2%	26.7%	+575 -227 +610 -225	0 3	-0.43231-0.41703	-0.68834
04/27/2025 02:30 PM	Nacional Moreirense	22.8% 49.7%	27.5%	+190 +155 +190 +165	1 1	-1.18925-1.16398	-1.28942
04/26/2025 05:00 PM	SC Farense Gil Vicente FC	27.1% 44.9%	28.0%	+220 +142 +240 +135	0 1	-0.94863-0.90604	-0.80060
04/25/2025 07:30 PM	Braga Famalicao	65.7% 15.3%	19.0%	+112 +255 +120 +240	1 1	-1.21584-1.24434	-1.66242
04/19/2025 07:30 PM	Benfica Vitoria	50.0% 24.7%	25.3%	-185 +460 -170 +460	3 0	-0.48812-0.51341	-0.69241
04/19/2025 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Nacional	34.1% 34.4%	31.5%	+200 +153 +210 +150	3 0	-1.15353-1.18061	-1.07658
04/18/2025 07:30 PM	Moreirense Sporting CP	11.3% 69.9%	18.8%	+1700 -625 +1775 -535	1 3	-0.20525-0.21986	-0.35838
04/18/2025 05:00 PM	Famalicao Porto	6.2% 81.8%	12.0%	+510 -195 +625 -230	1 2	-0.48056-0.41198	-0.20038
04/18/2025 02:30 PM	Boavista SC Farense	34.8% 34.8%	30.4%	+385 -130 +420 -140	1 0	-1.63450-1.70068	-1.05653
04/18/2025 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Rio Ave	27.5% 43.1%	29.4%	+105 +300 +115 +275	1 1	-1.19000-1.19548	-1.22350
04/13/2025 07:30 PM	Rio Ave Moreirense	32.6% 36.8%	30.5%	+235 +126 +235 +135	2 0	-1.27554-1.25956	-1.12024
04/12/2025 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Santa Clara	65.1% 13.9%	21.0%	-180 +550 -180 +570	1 0	-0.49359-0.49238	-0.42975
04/12/2025 02:30 PM	Nacional Boavista	29.1% 40.5%	30.4%	+135 +210 +145 +205	1 0	-0.91794-0.94348	-1.23560
04/11/2025 07:15 PM	Vitoria Gil Vicente FC	51.1% 22.6%	26.3%	+135 +260 +110 +280	1 0	-0.88513-0.79248	-0.67199
04/07/2025 07:45 PM	Braga Sporting CP	30.5% 43.3%	26.2%	+700 -275 +750 -280	1 1	-1.62475-1.67857	-1.33899
04/07/2025 07:15 PM	Boavista Rio Ave	23.2% 48.8%	27.9%	+275 +106 +310 -110	2 0	-1.36285-1.46305	-1.45964

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).