Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1300
-725

0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-104
u3½-112

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+148
+216
+135
+230
2
1		-0.94376-0.90429-0.73856
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+1200
-476
+1200
-490
0
3		-0.22252-0.23479-0.52974
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		28.0%
42.9%		29.1%
+240
+144
+245
+135
0
1		-0.93402-0.90199-0.84560
Nacional
Famalicao		24.9%
49.0%		26.1%
+475
-172
+445
-165
0
1		-0.49903-0.52547-0.71392
Moreirense
Porto		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1450
-520
+1450
-500
0
3		-0.21354-0.23274-0.24193
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+195
+152
+190
+160
2
1		-1.11816-1.11541-1.59909
Rio Ave
Tondela		43.3%
27.1%		29.6%
+260
+120
+265
+120
1
0		-1.31390-1.34458-0.83667
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+216
+156
+225
+145
0
2		-0.97128-0.94410-1.35476
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+340
-103
+300
+105
2
2		-1.21797-1.21224-1.33716
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
+105
+290
+105
+265
2
2		-1.28226-1.28870-1.29986
Nacional
Moreirense		22.8%
49.7%		27.5%
+190
+160
+200
+150
1
1		-1.23018-1.19696-1.28942
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-175
+525
-175
+490
2
1		-0.48315-0.50055-0.37154
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
-119
+310
-115
+305
0
0		-1.38422-1.35907-1.30815
Santa Clara
Tondela		38.8%
30.8%		30.4%
+165
+215
+155
+215
2
2		-1.08028-1.12927-1.18938
Braga
Nacional		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-200
+525
-175
+480
2
1		-0.45800-0.50053-0.34308
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1900
-833
+2100
-950
0
1		-0.15072-0.14908-0.26130
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.99756 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.02304 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.88717
-0.88961
-0.86413

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).