Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-225
+525

1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾+102
u2¾-122

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210

1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-125
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Porto
Moreirense 		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-380
+1000
-400
+1050
2.93
o2¾+100
u2¾-117

2nd H
90:00		2
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-202
+475
-225
+575
2
1		-0.46748-0.41746-0.40115
Nacional
Porto		4.8%
83.2%		11.9%
+1400
-500
+1800
-665
0
1		-0.22429-0.19058-0.18335
Rio Ave
Moreirense		32.6%
36.8%		30.5%
+275
+117
+290
+115
1
3		-0.82360-0.81369-0.99840
Santa Clara
Benfica		10.3%
72.2%		17.4%
+1100
-365
+1025
-340
1
1		-1.71535-1.71674-1.74726
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-143
+410
-130
+365
2
2		-1.39143-1.35763-1.48625
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+305
-112
+270
+110
2
1		-1.45406-1.35662-0.81665
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+230
+154
+235
+150
0
2		-0.97984-0.96451-1.13075
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+370
-110
+400
-120
0
0		-1.24344-1.23045-1.32114
Tondela
Benfica		7.4%
77.8%		14.8%
+1400
-675
+1800
-750
0
3		-0.19890-0.17326-0.25102
Sporting CP
Nacional		71.2%
10.2%		18.5%
-435
+1000
-400
+970
4
1		-0.26895-0.27402-0.33912
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+146
+200
+150
+205
0
2		-1.15916-1.16437-1.26844
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-233
+650
-260
+700
2
0		-0.40630-0.37545-0.25319
Moreirense
Santa Clara		33.7%
35.9%		30.4%
+375
-109
+350
+100
1
0		-1.60934-1.55296-1.08773
Nacional
Rio Ave		21.5%
50.9%		27.6%
+255
+119
+255
+115
1
1		-1.22363-1.24258-1.28649
Famalicao
Tondela		40.9%
31.4%		27.7%
-101
+315
-105
+330
1
0		-0.74261-0.72017-0.89419
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+625
-225
+610
-210
0
3		-0.42863-0.44164-0.35288
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).