Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Santa Clara
Vitoria 		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+310
+101
+320
+100
0.85
1.61		2.46
o2+100
u2-120

Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Boavista		35.9%
33.1%		30.9%
-125
+420
-130
+435
0
1		-1.69396-1.72648-1.10422
Famalicao
Nacional		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+178
+170
+165
+185
1
2		-1.05472-1.09688-1.14816
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+360
-120
+430
-140
1
1		-1.31052-1.32950-1.69898
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.4%
37.6%		28.0%
+220
+144
+260
+130
0
2		-0.95368-0.88317-0.97790
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1600
-714
+1900
-850
0
3		-0.19405-0.16002-0.27409
Nacional
Braga		8.0%
76.9%		15.0%
+540
-190
+550
-210
0
1		-0.48246-0.43925-0.26207
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+235
+133
+235
+135
2
0		-1.27243-1.25956-1.01294
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
+225
+125
+255
+125
0
0		-1.23674-1.17899-1.37334
Porto
SC Farense		81.4%
5.9%		12.7%
-159
+460
-170
+500
1
0		-0.54877-0.51089-0.20626
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
+101
+310
-105
+325
1
0		-0.75534-0.71832-0.42682
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+400
-149
+410
-150
0
2		-0.57325-0.55890-0.29077
Nacional
SC Farense		32.7%
37.1%		30.2%
+205
+145
+225
+145
2
0		-1.17707-1.22666-1.11783
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+135
+220
+150
+210
0
0		-1.19023-1.16437-1.36900
Moreirense
Benfica		11.5%
70.1%		18.3%
+1200
-500
+1275
-510
2
3		-0.23805-0.22941-0.35473
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+160
+175
+160
+185
1
1		-1.19985-1.19902-1.40360
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-227
+575
-295
+775
2
2		-1.54891-1.70854-1.69925
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).