Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%


1.09
0.94		2.03


Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 21, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Tondela
Nacional 		30.4%
38.5%		31.1%
+220
+145
+220
+135
1.96
o2¼-105
u2¼-105

2nd H
90:00		1
1
Santa Clara
Braga 		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+700
-230
+725
-220
3.06
o2¼-108
u2¼-109

1st H
42:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-217
+650
-210
+560
3
0		-0.41832-0.43936-0.69241
Famalicao
Nacional		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+133
+215
+125
+220
1
0		-0.88583-0.86074-0.91337
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-380
+1000
-400
+1050
2
1		-0.29296-0.27278-0.31375
Sporting CP
Tondela		72.0%
10.0%		18.0%
-450
+1000
-425
+1025
3
0		-0.26747-0.26004-0.32866
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+375
-130
+375
-125
0
2		-0.61554-0.63828-1.32189
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+290
-105
+290
+100
0
0		-1.27389-1.27307-1.43469
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+525
-208
+500
-200
1
1		-1.56003-1.57552-1.33899
Tondela
Rio Ave		21.1%
51.8%		27.1%
+176
+155
+185
+150
0
3		-0.99201-0.96451-0.65836
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+166
+205
+165
+210
1
2		-1.16607-1.18097-0.59283
Moreirense
Nacional		41.2%
29.0%		29.9%
+240
+129
+260
+120
2
3		-0.88056-0.83704-1.23950
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+395
-152
+375
-140
0
0		-1.43046-1.41001-1.24834
Nacional
Braga		8.0%
76.9%		15.0%
+675
-238
+730
-250
1
0		-2.10161-2.16491-2.52361
Tondela
Santa Clara		24.5%
47.2%		28.3%
+425
-122
+470
-145
2
1		-1.70035-1.79210-1.40846
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+950
-343
+1025
-345
1
2		-0.31409-0.30271-0.28378
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1600
-769
+2500
-1000
1
1		-2.22544-2.32616-1.63286
Moreirense
Sporting CP		11.3%
69.9%		18.8%
+1100
-500
+1300
-550
0
3		-0.24014-0.21671-0.35838
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).