Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-140
+400
-120
+345
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2½-120
u2½+102

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Santa Clara		74.9%
8.7%		16.4%
-130
+360
-135
+330
2
0		-0.59671-0.60684-0.28866
Moreirense
SC Farense		43.8%
28.0%		28.2%
+160
+173
+155
+190
2
1		-1.02641-0.98438-0.82567
Benfica
Famalicao		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-190
+470
-205
+525
0
2		-1.80169-1.88092-1.94449
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1000
-400
+1200
-480
0
3		-0.28595-0.23953-0.19798
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+1700
-850
+1600
-800
1
3		-0.17200-0.16940-0.38634
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+113
+235
+110
+230
1
0		-0.79367-0.79025-0.73856
Portimonense
SC Farense		30.6%
39.5%		29.9%
+115
+186
+120
+180
3
1		-0.83119-0.83977-1.18283
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-263
+575
-245
+610
1
1		-1.71158-1.65921-1.48488
Boavista
Porto		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1600
-725
+1750
-800
1
2		-0.18849-0.16485-0.19288
SC Farense
Gil Vicente FC		27.1%
44.9%		28.0%
+340
-135
+360
-135
0
2		-0.60181-0.60462-0.80060
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
+121
+230
+120
+205
3
2		-0.83736-0.83637-0.72371
Rio Ave
Portimonense		44.9%
25.5%		29.6%
+195
+140
+205
+135
2
2		-1.26167-1.25956-1.21790
Benfica
Famalicao		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-238
+575
-260
+625
0
2		-1.96049-2.03042-1.94449
Portimonense
Sporting CP		6.8%
78.2%		15.0%
+1800
-1500
+2200
-1350
0
3		-0.11979-0.12161-0.24604
Vitoria
Rio Ave		41.6%
29.4%		29.0%
+125
+230
+145
+200
1
2		-1.25685-1.15119-1.22509
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+177
+175
+180
+165
1
1		-1.16632-1.19806-1.18215
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).