Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Vitoria 		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+200
+148
+200
+140
0.98
1.82		2.80
o2¼-115
u2½-134

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
-172
+575
-185
+580
2
1		-0.49456-0.48339-0.42682
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+208
+152
+205
+150
1
1		-1.18780-1.18061-1.40360
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+1500
-625
+1400
-575
0
3		-0.18977-0.20923-0.39674
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		25.8%
46.1%		28.1%
+112
+300
+115
+280
2
1		-0.79675-0.81507-1.35534
Benfica
Tondela		72.1%
10.2%		17.6%
-345
+1000
-360
+1025
0
0		-1.78856-1.77160-1.73523
Nacional
Sporting CP		7.5%
76.9%		15.6%
+1600
-667
+2400
-1075
1
2		-0.17284-0.13786-0.26266
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+180
+185
+185
+175
0
5		-1.09324-1.05834-1.04171
Moreirense
Vitoria		21.8%
52.5%		25.7%
+355
-114
+350
-115
0
1		-0.67533-0.67566-0.64489
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+800
-263
+775
-265
0
3		-0.36321-0.36976-0.19798
Tondela
Famalicao		24.6%
49.8%		25.6%
+525
-169
+510
-180
0
3		-0.49646-0.49127-0.69681
Rio Ave
Nacional		42.5%
27.4%		30.1%
+280
-107
+285
-105
0
4		-0.70899-0.71756-1.29412
Santa Clara
Moreirense		29.1%
41.7%		29.2%
+185
+200
+170
+200
0
1		-1.13311-1.14602-0.87455
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-204
+600
-215
+650
1
0		-0.44434-0.43183-0.46380
Braga
Tondela		71.5%
10.8%		17.6%
-189
+550
-195
+565
1
0		-0.47797-0.46501-0.33511
Famalicao
Santa Clara		32.7%
39.6%		27.7%
+158
+205
+155
+210
1
0		-1.00299-0.98305-1.11862
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-323
+850
-310
+825
2
0		-0.31605-0.33112-0.50397
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).