Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 29 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/19/2026 07:30 PM	Famalicao Braga	11.0% 73.1%	15.9%	+295 -108 +310 -110	2 2	-1.30926-1.31517	-1.83841
04/19/2026 05:00 PM	Benfica Sporting CP	31.7% 41.0%	27.3%	+265 -101 +255 +105	2 1	-1.35507-1.31684	-1.14775
04/18/2026 07:30 PM	Vitoria Gil Vicente FC	51.1% 22.6%	26.3%	+310 +100 +305 +100	1 0	-1.46132-1.44745	-0.67199
04/13/2026 07:15 PM	Gil Vicente FC Tondela	34.7% 34.1%	31.3%	-115 +340 -120 +400	2 2	-1.25706-1.24126	-1.16293
04/12/2026 05:00 PM	Nacional Benfica	7.6% 77.3%	15.1%	+1400 -750 +1525 -730	0 2	-0.18656-0.17923	-0.25718
04/11/2026 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Santa Clara	34.8% 34.0%	31.2%	+435 -137 +430 -140	2 0	-1.73449-1.71630	-1.05527
04/10/2026 07:45 PM	Moreirense Famalicao	34.4% 37.6%	28.0%	+650 -220 +700 -220	1 1	-1.47368-1.48444	-1.27293
04/04/2026 07:30 PM	Famalicao Porto	6.2% 81.8%	12.0%	+860 -256 +700 -245	2 2	-1.59974-1.57726	-2.12352
04/04/2026 05:00 PM	Braga Moreirense	61.5% 16.9%	21.6%	-183 +640 -200 +620	1 0	-0.44498-0.45374	-0.48591
04/03/2026 07:30 PM	Santa Clara Sporting CP	10.1% 71.9%	17.9%	+900 -305 +850 -300	2 4	-0.32450-0.33774	-0.32960
04/03/2026 05:00 PM	Tondela Vitoria	14.5% 63.5%	22.0%	+350 -115 +335 -110	0 5	-0.66764-0.69752	-0.45391
03/22/2026 08:30 PM	Porto Braga	47.8% 27.1%	25.1%	+148 +216 +135 +230	2 1	-0.94376-0.90429	-0.73856
03/21/2026 06:00 PM	Vitoria Benfica	18.6% 58.9%	22.5%	+1200 -476 +1200 -490	0 3	-0.22252-0.23479	-0.52974
03/21/2026 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Santa Clara	28.0% 42.9%	29.1%	+240 +144 +245 +135	0 1	-0.93402-0.90199	-0.84560
03/21/2026 03:30 PM	Nacional Famalicao	24.9% 49.0%	26.1%	+475 -172 +445 -165	0 1	-0.49903-0.52547	-0.71392
03/15/2026 08:30 PM	Moreirense Porto	7.1% 78.5%	14.4%	+1450 -520 +1450 -500	0 3	-0.21354-0.23274	-0.24193

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).