Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Santa Clara
Vitoria 		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+310
+101
+320
+100
0.85
1.61		2.46
o2+100
u2-120

Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Moreirense		61.5%
16.9%		21.6%
+142
+210
+105
+270
2
1		-0.93568-0.76873-0.48591
SC Farense
Sporting CP		6.9%
79.1%		14.0%
+1500
-575
+1600
-725
1
3		-0.22632-0.17678-0.23444
Famalicao
Boavista		37.7%
33.9%		28.4%
+112
+265
+120
+255
2
0		-0.80795-0.83605-0.97482
Boavista
Braga		8.8%
75.6%		15.6%
+775
-335
+1050
-400
0
3		-0.32850-0.27278-0.28020
Santa Clara
Porto		6.4%
79.9%		13.7%
+475
-149
+535
-165
1
1		-1.35004-1.35751-1.98777
Nacional
Sporting CP		7.5%
76.9%		15.6%
+1200
-588
+1175
-600
0
2		-0.21995-0.20281-0.26266
Rio Ave
SC Farense		45.2%
26.5%		28.3%
+205
+142
+235
+135
2
1		-1.17688-1.25956-0.79418
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-220
+600
-220
+625
1
3		-2.01208-2.02997-2.60369
SC Farense
Moreirense		21.7%
52.5%		25.7%
+340
-103
+355
-105
0
0		-1.19819-1.19567-1.35775
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-280
+720
-350
+825
3
0		-0.36635-0.30254-0.50345
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+1000
-420
+1000
-400
0
4		-0.27681-0.27279-0.30013
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%
+265
+116
+275
+115
1
1		-1.17795-1.19548-1.19069
SC Farense
Santa Clara		23.8%
49.3%		26.8%
+500
-149
+560
-150
0
0		-1.24890-1.25776-1.31606
Braga
Benfica		31.2%
42.9%		25.9%
+690
-290
+750
-300
2
1		-2.12410-2.18836-1.16386
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-105
+270
-110
+285
4
4		-1.31875-1.36074-1.35511
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+165
+210
+160
+230
2
1		-1.03008-1.00550-1.14523
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).