Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1300
-725

0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-104
u3½-112

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+575
-189
+540
-200
2
3		-0.46142-0.45443-0.55351
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-385
+1000
-420
+1100
3
0		-0.26876-0.26334-0.46860
Moreirense
Rio Ave		29.8%
40.3%		29.9%
+120
+260
+130
+235
2
1		-0.82860-0.88242-1.20929
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+850
-312
+900
-330
0
1		-0.32143-0.31278-0.30213
Porto
Nacional		79.3%
6.4%		14.2%
-244
+700
-265
+725
1
0		-0.38317-0.37021-0.23172
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		68.2%
12.9%		18.9%
-103
+340
+110
+295
1
2		-1.53146-1.42437-2.04965
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
-172
+575
-185
+580
2
1		-0.49456-0.48339-0.42682
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+208
+152
+205
+150
1
1		-1.18780-1.18061-1.40360
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+1500
-625
+1400
-575
0
3		-0.18977-0.20923-0.39674
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		25.8%
46.1%		28.1%
+112
+300
+115
+280
2
1		-0.79675-0.81507-1.35534
Benfica
Tondela		72.1%
10.2%		17.6%
-345
+1000
-360
+1025
0
0		-1.78856-1.77160-1.73523
Nacional
Sporting CP		7.5%
76.9%		15.6%
+1600
-667
+2400
-1075
1
2		-0.17284-0.13786-0.26266
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+180
+185
+185
+175
0
5		-1.09324-1.05834-1.04171
Moreirense
Vitoria		21.8%
52.5%		25.7%
+355
-114
+350
-115
0
1		-0.67533-0.67566-0.64489
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+800
-263
+775
-265
0
3		-0.36321-0.36976-0.19798
Tondela
Famalicao		24.6%
49.8%		25.6%
+525
-169
+510
-180
0
3		-0.49646-0.49127-0.69681
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.99756 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.02304 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.88717
-0.88961
-0.86413

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).