Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Vitoria 		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+200
+148
+200
+140
0.98
1.82		2.80
o2¼-115
u2½-134

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		28.0%
42.2%		29.8%
+395
-133
+400
-135
1
2		-0.61378-0.60525-0.86192
Tondela
Moreirense		22.4%
50.4%		27.2%
+230
+135
+300
+105
0
1		-0.91447-0.76692-0.68571
Santa Clara
Nacional		38.2%
31.1%		30.7%
+185
+173
+190
+180
3
3		-1.12485-1.11042-1.18061
Porto
Santa Clara		74.9%
8.7%		16.4%
-202
+700
-220
+725
1
0		-0.45438-0.42317-0.28866
Nacional
Vitoria		14.8%
62.7%		22.5%
+325
-109
+330
-115
1
2		-0.70911-0.67368-0.46743
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-217
+575
-210
+610
1
1		-1.52184-1.50819-1.63887
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+2000
-1300
+1900
-1000
0
4		-0.13906-0.14410-0.38634
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+116
+275
+115
+255
2
2		-1.22608-1.24258-1.32852
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-227
+575
-230
+620
4
1		-0.42992-0.41066-0.68983
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+725
-270
+820
-300
0
1		-0.36668-0.33570-0.30013
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%
+295
-118
+435
-150
2
2		-1.32988-1.38390-1.19069
Santa Clara
Braga		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+700
-230
+725
-220
0
1		-0.42204-0.42317-0.33440
Tondela
Nacional		30.4%
38.5%		31.1%
+220
+145
+220
+135
1
3		-0.93843-0.90372-0.95493
Benfica
Moreirense		62.7%
15.9%		21.4%
-250
+725
-275
+775
4
0		-0.38361-0.36057-0.46654
Vitoria
Rio Ave		41.6%
29.4%		29.0%
+144
+212
+145
+205
1
0		-0.93869-0.94348-0.87724
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+169
+191
+180
+185
0
0		-1.13476-1.11621-1.45192
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).