Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 28, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boavista
Porto 		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1700
-725

0.52
2.66		3.18
o3¼-110
u3¼-105

Games for Dec 27, 2024
Games for Dec 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-345
+900
-340
+1000
3
0		-0.31653-0.30882-0.40115
Moreirense
Boavista		38.9%
30.9%		30.1%
+140
+235
+125
+255
2
0		-0.92284-0.86353-0.94412
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		28.0%
42.9%		29.1%
+300
+113
+290
+115
1
2		-0.81846-0.81369-0.84560
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+500
-217
+550
-215
1
2		-0.44102-0.43209-0.56396
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+825
-265
+810
-275
2
2		-1.54122-1.61888-1.46266
Santa Clara
Moreirense		29.1%
41.7%		29.2%
+200
+165
+225
+160
0
1		-1.03431-1.00376-0.87455
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
+168
+180
+160
+190
1
1		-1.13712-1.18215-1.30815
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+600
-189
+540
-195
0
4		-0.44356-0.46261-0.39674
Boavista
Santa Clara		26.7%
44.3%		29.0%
+550
-175
+520
-170
0
1		-0.50073-0.51204-0.81500
Nacional
Famalicao		24.9%
49.0%		26.1%
+460
-135
+425
-145
0
0		-1.33135-1.36956-1.34415
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+1100
-480
+1375
-600
1
5		-0.25199-0.20516-0.28378
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-385
+1000
-475
+1175
3
0		-0.26876-0.24033-0.35763
Famalicao
Moreirense		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+185
+175
+195
0
0		-1.13286-1.11106-1.31174
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-104
+310
-110
+325
3
0		-0.72892-0.69848-0.46380
Braga
Nacional		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-135
+365
-145
+410
3
0		-0.59609-0.57433-0.34308
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+240
+111
+230
+125
2
0		-1.27615-1.24320-1.61979
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).