Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%


1.09
0.94		2.03


Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1600
-769
+2500
-1000
1
1		-2.22544-2.32616-1.63286
Moreirense
Sporting CP		11.3%
69.9%		18.8%
+1100
-500
+1300
-550
0
3		-0.24014-0.21671-0.35838
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
-108
+305
-110
+325
1
1		-1.29288-1.28616-1.37334
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-270
+675
-325
+800
3
0		-0.35486-0.31825-0.33864
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+415
-132
+500
-165
1
0		-1.69065-1.84288-2.37645
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-202
+475
-225
+575
2
1		-0.46748-0.41746-0.40115
Nacional
Porto		4.8%
83.2%		11.9%
+1400
-500
+1800
-665
0
1		-0.22429-0.19058-0.18335
Rio Ave
Moreirense		32.6%
36.8%		30.5%
+275
+117
+290
+115
1
3		-0.82360-0.81369-0.99840
Santa Clara
Benfica		10.3%
72.2%		17.4%
+1100
-365
+1025
-340
1
1		-1.71535-1.71674-1.74726
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-143
+410
-130
+365
2
2		-1.39143-1.35763-1.48625
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+305
-112
+270
+110
2
1		-1.45406-1.35662-0.81665
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+230
+154
+235
+150
0
2		-0.97984-0.96451-1.13075
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+370
-110
+400
-120
0
0		-1.24344-1.23045-1.32114
Tondela
Benfica		7.4%
77.8%		14.8%
+1400
-675
+1800
-750
0
3		-0.19890-0.17326-0.25102
Sporting CP
Nacional		71.2%
10.2%		18.5%
-435
+1000
-400
+970
4
1		-0.26895-0.27402-0.33912
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+146
+200
+150
+205
0
2		-1.15916-1.16437-1.26844
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.68024 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.66344 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.64466
0.03557
0.01878

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).