Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Games for Jun 8, 2025

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/08/2025 08:30 PM	Porto Braga	47.8% 27.1%	25.1%	+126 +235 +110 +270	0 1	-1.26107-1.35662	-1.30564
03/08/2025 06:00 PM	Nacional Benfica	7.6% 77.3%	15.1%	+1100 -480 +1225 -500	0 3	-0.25425-0.23270	-0.25718
03/02/2025 08:30 PM	Braga Rio Ave	59.4% 18.0%	22.6%	-103 +285 -120 +310	1 2	-1.38478-1.46218	-1.71424
03/02/2025 03:30 PM	Santa Clara Boavista	35.9% 33.1%	30.9%	-125 +420 -130 +435	0 1	-1.69396-1.72648	-1.10422
03/01/2025 03:30 PM	Famalicao Nacional	40.1% 31.7%	28.2%	+178 +170 +165 +185	1 2	-1.05472-1.09688	-1.14816
02/24/2025 08:15 PM	Vitoria Porto	11.4% 70.3%	18.3%	+360 -120 +430 -140	1 1	-1.31052-1.32950	-1.69898
02/23/2025 08:30 PM	Moreirense Famalicao	34.4% 37.6%	28.0%	+220 +144 +260 +130	0 2	-0.95368-0.88317	-0.97790
02/22/2025 06:00 PM	Boavista Benfica	8.3% 76.0%	15.7%	+1600 -714 +1900 -850	0 3	-0.19405-0.16002	-0.27409
02/21/2025 08:15 PM	Nacional Braga	8.0% 76.9%	15.0%	+540 -190 +550 -210	0 1	-0.48246-0.43925	-0.26207
02/17/2025 08:15 PM	Famalicao Gil Vicente FC	36.3% 35.3%	28.4%	+235 +133 +235 +135	2 0	-1.27243-1.25956	-1.01294
02/16/2025 08:30 PM	Braga Vitoria	48.5% 26.2%	25.3%	+225 +125 +255 +125	0 0	-1.23674-1.17899	-1.37334
02/16/2025 06:00 PM	Porto SC Farense	81.4% 5.9%	12.7%	-159 +460 -170 +500	1 0	-0.54877-0.51089	-0.20626
02/15/2025 06:00 PM	Benfica Santa Clara	65.3% 14.2%	20.5%	+101 +310 -105 +325	1 0	-0.75534-0.71832	-0.42682
02/09/2025 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Braga	9.3% 74.8%	15.9%	+400 -149 +410 -150	0 2	-0.57325-0.55890	-0.29077
02/09/2025 03:30 PM	Nacional SC Farense	32.7% 37.1%	30.2%	+205 +145 +225 +145	2 0	-1.17707-1.22666	-1.11783
02/08/2025 08:30 PM	Vitoria Famalicao	47.9% 26.7%	25.4%	+135 +220 +150 +210	0 0	-1.19023-1.16437	-1.36900

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).