Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1300
-725

0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-104
u3½-112

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Nacional		42.5%
27.4%		30.1%
+280
-107
+285
-105
0
4		-0.70899-0.71756-1.29412
Santa Clara
Moreirense		29.1%
41.7%		29.2%
+185
+200
+170
+200
0
1		-1.13311-1.14602-0.87455
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-204
+600
-215
+650
1
0		-0.44434-0.43183-0.46380
Braga
Tondela		71.5%
10.8%		17.6%
-189
+550
-195
+565
1
0		-0.47797-0.46501-0.33511
Famalicao
Santa Clara		32.7%
39.6%		27.7%
+158
+205
+155
+210
1
0		-1.00299-0.98305-1.11862
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-323
+850
-310
+825
2
0		-0.31605-0.33112-0.50397
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		28.0%
42.2%		29.8%
+395
-133
+400
-135
1
2		-0.61378-0.60525-0.86192
Tondela
Moreirense		22.4%
50.4%		27.2%
+230
+135
+300
+105
0
1		-0.91447-0.76692-0.68571
Santa Clara
Nacional		38.2%
31.1%		30.7%
+185
+173
+190
+180
3
3		-1.12485-1.11042-1.18061
Porto
Santa Clara		74.9%
8.7%		16.4%
-202
+700
-220
+725
1
0		-0.45438-0.42317-0.28866
Nacional
Vitoria		14.8%
62.7%		22.5%
+325
-109
+330
-115
1
2		-0.70911-0.67368-0.46743
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-217
+575
-210
+610
1
1		-1.52184-1.50819-1.63887
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+2000
-1300
+1900
-1000
0
4		-0.13906-0.14410-0.38634
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+116
+275
+115
+255
2
2		-1.22608-1.24258-1.32852
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-227
+575
-230
+620
4
1		-0.42992-0.41066-0.68983
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+725
-270
+820
-300
0
1		-0.36668-0.33570-0.30013
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.99756 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.02304 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.88717
-0.88961
-0.86413

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).