Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%


1.09
0.94		2.03


Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 22, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-233
+650
-260
+700
2
0		-0.40630-0.37545-0.25319
Moreirense
Santa Clara		33.7%
35.9%		30.4%
+375
-109
+350
+100
1
0		-1.60934-1.55296-1.08773
Nacional
Rio Ave		21.5%
50.9%		27.6%
+255
+119
+255
+115
1
1		-1.22363-1.24258-1.28649
Famalicao
Tondela		40.9%
31.4%		27.7%
-101
+315
-105
+330
1
0		-0.74261-0.72017-0.89419
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+625
-225
+610
-210
0
3		-0.42863-0.44164-0.35288
Tondela
Braga		7.8%
77.4%		14.7%
+575
-189
+640
-210
0
3		-0.46968-0.43888-0.25583
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+260
+128
+275
+120
0
3		-0.87481-0.83637-0.90296
Gil Vicente FC
Nacional		34.1%
34.4%		31.5%
+195
+165
+190
+175
2
0		-1.14006-1.11663-1.07658
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
-185
+420
-190
+500
1
1		-1.54806-1.52956-1.32852
Santa Clara
SC Farense		40.7%
30.3%		29.0%
+174
+175
+175
+175
2
1		-1.05788-1.06025-0.89965
Vitoria
Sporting CP		18.1%
58.8%		23.0%
+725
-315
+960
-360
0
2		-0.33909-0.29618-0.53020
Nacional
Porto		4.8%
83.2%		11.9%
+770
-325
+800
-320
0
3		-0.31623-0.32223-0.18335
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		24.4%
47.4%		28.3%
+155
+172
+165
+180
1
1		-1.25485-1.19806-1.26390
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-245
+680
-245
+605
2
1		-0.40585-0.39297-0.24567
SC Farense
Vitoria		13.9%
65.5%		20.7%
+525
-189
+625
-200
2
1		-1.89167-2.02837-1.97595
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+215
+125
+240
+115
1
1		-1.24594-1.27576-1.28801
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.68024 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.66344 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.64466
0.03557
0.01878

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).