Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-225
+525

1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾+102
u2¾-122

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210

1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-125
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Nacional		54.6%
19.8%		25.5%
-104
+285
-115
+300
2
1		-0.73143-0.67598-0.60457
Famalicao
SC Farense		42.6%
30.7%		26.8%
+155
+184
+160
+190
1
2		-1.09904-1.11541-1.18228
Moreirense
Porto		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+725
-300
+935
-325
1
3		-0.35647-0.31706-0.24193
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-667
+1500
-700
+1800
5
0		-0.19236-0.17983-0.35949
Rio Ave
Vitoria		23.0%
50.2%		26.7%
+575
-227
+610
-225
0
3		-0.43231-0.41703-0.68834
Nacional
Moreirense		22.8%
49.7%		27.5%
+190
+155
+190
+165
1
1		-1.18925-1.16398-1.28942
SC Farense
Gil Vicente FC		27.1%
44.9%		28.0%
+220
+142
+240
+135
0
1		-0.94863-0.90604-0.80060
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
+112
+255
+120
+240
1
1		-1.21584-1.24434-1.66242
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-185
+460
-170
+460
3
0		-0.48812-0.51341-0.69241
Gil Vicente FC
Nacional		34.1%
34.4%		31.5%
+200
+153
+210
+150
3
0		-1.15353-1.18061-1.07658
Moreirense
Sporting CP		11.3%
69.9%		18.8%
+1700
-625
+1775
-535
1
3		-0.20525-0.21986-0.35838
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+510
-195
+625
-230
1
2		-0.48056-0.41198-0.20038
Boavista
SC Farense		34.8%
34.8%		30.4%
+385
-130
+420
-140
1
0		-1.63450-1.70068-1.05653
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		27.5%
43.1%		29.4%
+105
+300
+115
+275
1
1		-1.19000-1.19548-1.22350
Rio Ave
Moreirense		32.6%
36.8%		30.5%
+235
+126
+235
+135
2
0		-1.27554-1.25956-1.12024
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-180
+550
-180
+570
1
0		-0.49359-0.49238-0.42975
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.29296 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.27278 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.31375
-0.02079
-0.04097

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).