Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-145
+420
-140
+400
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2½-119
u2½+102

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-135
+390
-140
+375
4
0		-0.59517-0.58805-0.36807
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-460
+1450
-425
+1200
3
3		-1.86659-1.85745-1.46833
Portimonense
Benfica		6.9%
78.6%		14.4%
+2400
-933
+2175
-1100
0
4		-0.15074-0.13726-0.24026
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-215
+615
-225
+625
1
1		-1.54778-1.55519-1.89986
Moreirense
SC Farense		43.8%
28.0%		28.2%
+180
+174
+170
+180
1
0		-1.07840-1.04214-0.82567
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-280
+815
-330
+900
2
0		-0.34672-0.31278-0.46860
SC Farense
Braga		7.4%
79.1%		13.6%
+535
-210
+550
-230
1
2		-0.41998-0.41059-0.23498
Vitoria
Portimonense		57.0%
18.2%		24.8%
-115
+320
-120
+340
1
1		-1.33245-1.33018-1.39404
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+290
+115
+295
+110
1
2		-0.80863-0.79257-1.03218
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-155
+440
-175
+460
2
2		-1.42841-1.49593-1.37563
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+580
-215
+550
-220
0
5		-0.42127-0.42318-0.83667
Famalicao
SC Farense		42.6%
30.7%		26.8%
+155
+200
+160
+190
1
1		-1.17834-1.18215-1.31849
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+565
-210
+610
-225
0
1		-0.43827-0.41703-0.36823
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+1550
-700
+1600
-725
0
3		-0.18223-0.17678-0.28378
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1375
-485
+1350
-500
0
0		-1.93427-1.95878-1.87145
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+116
+252
+120
+240
0
1		-1.30302-1.27418-1.48598
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).