Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-235
+525
-225
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210
+125
+220
1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-125
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nacional
Boavista		29.1%
40.5%		30.4%
+135
+210
+145
+205
1
0		-0.91794-0.94348-1.23560
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+135
+260
+110
+280
1
0		-0.88513-0.79248-0.67199
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+700
-275
+750
-280
1
1		-1.62475-1.67857-1.33899
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+275
+106
+310
-110
2
0		-1.36285-1.46305-1.45964
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+120
+225
+130
+220
4
1		-0.83924-0.88201-1.52450
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+220
+151
+235
+150
1
0		-1.21076-1.25716-0.97883
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+340
+100
+350
+100
0
2		-0.75305-0.74202-0.59283
SC Farense
Benfica		7.0%
79.4%		13.6%
+1500
-675
+1700
-725
2
3		-0.19497-0.17860-0.23011
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+144
+225
+140
+225
3
1		-0.94161-0.92637-1.12803
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+122
+255
+110
+280
2
2		-1.18469-1.21372-1.26798
Nacional
Santa Clara		24.8%
46.5%		28.6%
+370
-120
+445
-135
0
1		-0.65716-0.60508-0.76477
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-290
+750
-260
+725
3
0		-0.36152-0.37589-0.37154
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+440
-140
+400
-130
0
1		-0.60387-0.62021-0.74676
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-345
+840
-350
+900
3
2		-0.31006-0.29888-0.50397
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+800
-325
+1000
-325
1
3		-0.32748-0.31866-0.30213
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		34.6%
34.5%		30.8%
+193
+170
+180
+180
1
0		-1.14034-1.07614-1.06007
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).