Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 29 days ago

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Games for Jun 16, 2026

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/17/2026 08:30 PM	Benfica Rio Ave	60.4% 16.9%	22.7%	-323 +850 -310 +825	2 0	-0.31605-0.33112	-0.50397
01/17/2026 03:30 PM	Nacional Gil Vicente FC	28.0% 42.2%	29.8%	+395 -133 +400 -135	1 2	-0.61378-0.60525	-0.86192
01/11/2026 06:00 PM	Tondela Moreirense	22.4% 50.4%	27.2%	+230 +135 +300 +105	0 1	-0.91447-0.76692	-0.68571
01/11/2026 03:30 PM	Santa Clara Nacional	38.2% 31.1%	30.7%	+185 +173 +190 +180	3 3	-1.12485-1.11042	-1.18061
01/04/2026 06:00 PM	Porto Santa Clara	74.9% 8.7%	16.4%	-202 +700 -220 +725	1 0	-0.45438-0.42317	-0.28866
01/02/2026 08:45 PM	Nacional Vitoria	14.8% 62.7%	22.5%	+325 -109 +330 -115	1 2	-0.70911-0.67368	-0.46743
01/02/2026 06:45 PM	Sporting CP Gil Vicente FC	68.7% 11.8%	19.4%	-217 +575 -210 +610	1 1	-1.52184-1.50819	-1.63887
12/28/2025 08:30 PM	Rio Ave Sporting CP	12.1% 68.0%	19.9%	+2000 -1300 +1900 -1000	0 4	-0.13906-0.14410	-0.38634
12/28/2025 06:00 PM	Benfica Braga	34.4% 39.1%	26.5%	+116 +275 +115 +255	2 2	-1.22608-1.24258	-1.32852
12/23/2025 08:45 PM	Sporting CP Vitoria	50.2% 24.0%	25.8%	-227 +575 -230 +620	4 1	-0.42992-0.41066	-0.68983
12/22/2025 08:45 PM	Famalicao Benfica	10.3% 74.1%	15.7%	+725 -270 +820 -300	0 1	-0.36668-0.33570	-0.30013
12/20/2025 06:00 PM	Rio Ave Gil Vicente FC	38.9% 30.7%	30.4%	+295 -118 +435 -150	2 2	-1.32988-1.38390	-1.19069
12/15/2025 06:45 PM	Santa Clara Braga	11.0% 71.6%	17.4%	+700 -230 +725 -220	0 1	-0.42204-0.42317	-0.33440
12/15/2025 05:30 PM	Tondela Nacional	30.4% 38.5%	31.1%	+220 +145 +220 +135	1 3	-0.93843-0.90372	-0.95493
12/14/2025 06:00 PM	Benfica Moreirense	62.7% 15.9%	21.4%	-250 +725 -275 +775	4 0	-0.38361-0.36057	-0.46654
12/13/2025 06:00 PM	Vitoria Rio Ave	41.6% 29.4%	29.0%	+144 +212 +145 +205	1 0	-0.93869-0.94348	-0.87724

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).