Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Santa Clara
Vitoria 		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+310
+105
+350
+100
0.85
1.61		2.46
o2+108
u2-128

Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Famalicao		76.9%
8.6%		14.5%
-263
+675
-255
+710
1
1		-1.59460-1.60909-1.92951
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.8%
34.0%		31.2%
+440
-145
+420
-135
0
1		-0.58927-0.60547-1.08022
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+875
-345
+925
-340
0
1		-0.32233-0.30862-0.52974
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		28.0%
42.2%		29.8%
+285
+108
+300
-105
1
2		-0.77499-0.71980-0.86192
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-305
+760
-330
+900
1
2		-2.21512-2.35388-1.86517
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+400
-133
+420
-140
0
4		-0.62360-0.58742-0.51919
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		10.1%
71.9%		17.9%
+1100
-400
+1225
-500
1
0		-2.52861-2.63443-2.28839
Boavista
Nacional		32.7%
35.7%		31.6%
+300
+104
+300
-105
0
0		-1.27837-1.28910-1.15280
Moreirense
Rio Ave		29.8%
40.3%		29.9%
+170
+165
+160
+190
2
3		-1.03305-1.11541-0.90989
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+300
-105
+295
-105
1
4		-0.71820-0.71885-1.25857
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
-167
+420
-175
+460
4
2		-0.52911-0.50099-1.05788
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+180
+165
+185
+185
0
1		-1.04979-1.09862-1.35476
Rio Ave
Boavista		40.4%
29.4%		30.2%
+165
+195
+170
+180
2
0		-1.01275-1.04214-0.90656
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		25.8%
46.1%		28.1%
+265
+121
+240
+130
2
3		-0.84590-0.88312-0.77496
Santa Clara
Nacional		38.2%
31.1%		30.7%
+157
+185
+150
+210
0
2		-1.10800-1.18061-1.16709
Moreirense
Vitoria		21.8%
52.5%		25.7%
+390
-119
+390
-120
0
1		-0.66363-0.65737-0.64489
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).