Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Games for Jun 8, 2025

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/08/2025 06:00 PM	Moreirense Benfica	11.5% 70.1%	18.3%	+1200 -500 +1275 -510	2 3	-0.23805-0.22941	-0.35473
02/07/2025 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Porto	22.2% 53.2%	24.6%	+160 +175 +160 +185	1 1	-1.19985-1.19902	-1.40360
02/03/2025 08:45 PM	Porto Rio Ave	71.3% 10.4%	18.3%	-227 +575 -295 +775	2 2	-1.54891-1.70854	-1.69925
02/03/2025 06:45 PM	Braga Moreirense	61.5% 16.9%	21.6%	+142 +210 +105 +270	2 1	-0.93568-0.76873	-0.48591
02/02/2025 06:00 PM	SC Farense Sporting CP	6.9% 79.1%	14.0%	+1500 -575 +1600 -725	1 3	-0.22632-0.17678	-0.23444
01/31/2025 08:15 PM	Famalicao Boavista	37.7% 33.9%	28.4%	+112 +265 +120 +255	2 0	-0.80795-0.83605	-0.97482
01/26/2025 08:30 PM	Boavista Braga	8.8% 75.6%	15.6%	+775 -335 +1050 -400	0 3	-0.32850-0.27278	-0.28020
01/26/2025 06:00 PM	Santa Clara Porto	6.4% 79.9%	13.7%	+475 -149 +535 -165	1 1	-1.35004-1.35751	-1.98777
01/25/2025 08:30 PM	Nacional Sporting CP	7.5% 76.9%	15.6%	+1200 -588 +1175 -600	0 2	-0.21995-0.20281	-0.26266
01/25/2025 03:30 PM	Rio Ave SC Farense	45.2% 26.5%	28.3%	+205 +142 +235 +135	2 1	-1.17688-1.25956	-0.79418
01/19/2025 08:30 PM	Porto Gil Vicente FC	77.6% 7.4%	15.0%	-220 +600 -220 +625	1 3	-2.01208-2.02997	-2.60369
01/19/2025 03:30 PM	SC Farense Moreirense	21.7% 52.5%	25.7%	+340 -103 +355 -105	0 0	-1.19819-1.19567	-1.35775
01/18/2025 06:00 PM	Sporting CP Rio Ave	60.4% 16.5%	23.0%	-280 +720 -350 +825	3 0	-0.36635-0.30254	-0.50345
01/17/2025 08:15 PM	Famalicao Benfica	10.3% 74.1%	15.7%	+1000 -420 +1000 -400	0 4	-0.27681-0.27279	-0.30013
01/06/2025 08:15 PM	Rio Ave Gil Vicente FC	38.9% 30.7%	30.4%	+265 +116 +275 +115	1 1	-1.17795-1.19548	-1.19069
01/05/2025 03:30 PM	SC Farense Santa Clara	23.8% 49.3%	26.8%	+500 -149 +560 -150	0 0	-1.24890-1.25776	-1.31606

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).