Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-217
+530
-225
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾-107
u2¾-110

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210
+125
+220
1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-124
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
SC Farense		73.4%
10.3%		16.4%
+102
+290
+100
+310
1
0		-0.74767-0.74345-0.30937
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+320
+101
+390
-115
0
1		-0.74053-0.67590-1.03218
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
-150
+460
-135
+420
2
1		-0.57313-0.60547-0.64649
Moreirense
Santa Clara		33.7%
35.9%		30.4%
+310
+106
+350
+100
1
1		-1.12921-1.16402-1.19099
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+126
+235
+110
+270
0
1		-1.26107-1.35662-1.30564
Nacional
Benfica		7.6%
77.3%		15.1%
+1100
-480
+1225
-500
0
3		-0.25425-0.23270-0.25718
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-103
+285
-120
+310
1
2		-1.38478-1.46218-1.71424
Santa Clara
Boavista		35.9%
33.1%		30.9%
-125
+420
-130
+435
0
1		-1.69396-1.72648-1.10422
Famalicao
Nacional		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+178
+170
+165
+185
1
2		-1.05472-1.09688-1.14816
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+360
-120
+430
-140
1
1		-1.31052-1.32950-1.69898
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.4%
37.6%		28.0%
+220
+144
+260
+130
0
2		-0.95368-0.88317-0.97790
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1600
-714
+1900
-850
0
3		-0.19405-0.16002-0.27409
Nacional
Braga		8.0%
76.9%		15.0%
+540
-190
+550
-210
0
1		-0.48246-0.43925-0.26207
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+235
+133
+235
+135
2
0		-1.27243-1.25956-1.01294
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
+225
+125
+255
+125
0
0		-1.23674-1.17899-1.37334
Porto
SC Farense		81.4%
5.9%		12.7%
-159
+460
-170
+500
1
0		-0.54877-0.51089-0.20626
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).