Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1500
-850

0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-115
u3¾-130

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Tondela		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+150
+197
+175
+175
1
0		-0.97389-1.06025-0.58875
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		34.6%
34.5%		30.8%
+365
-102
+315
+110
0
1		-0.73006-0.79118-1.06427
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+525
-192
+550
-195
1
2		-0.48461-0.46291-0.56396
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-217
+650
-210
+560
3
0		-0.41832-0.43936-0.69241
Famalicao
Nacional		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+133
+215
+125
+220
1
0		-0.88583-0.86074-0.91337
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-380
+1000
-400
+1050
2
1		-0.29296-0.27278-0.31375
Sporting CP
Tondela		72.0%
10.0%		18.0%
-450
+1000
-425
+1025
3
0		-0.26747-0.26004-0.32866
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+375
-130
+375
-125
0
2		-0.61554-0.63828-1.32189
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+290
-105
+290
+100
0
0		-1.27389-1.27307-1.43469
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+525
-208
+500
-200
1
1		-1.56003-1.57552-1.33899
Tondela
Rio Ave		21.1%
51.8%		27.1%
+176
+155
+185
+150
0
3		-0.99201-0.96451-0.65836
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+166
+205
+165
+210
1
2		-1.16607-1.18097-0.59283
Moreirense
Nacional		41.2%
29.0%		29.9%
+240
+129
+260
+120
2
3		-0.88056-0.83704-1.23950
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+395
-152
+375
-140
0
0		-1.43046-1.41001-1.24834
Nacional
Braga		8.0%
76.9%		15.0%
+675
-238
+730
-250
1
0		-2.10161-2.16491-2.52361
Tondela
Santa Clara		24.5%
47.2%		28.3%
+425
-122
+470
-145
2
1		-1.70035-1.79210-1.40846
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.99756 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.02304 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.88717
-0.88961
-0.86413

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).