Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 6, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC 		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+190
+155
+205
+155
1.08
0.99		2.07
o2-113
u2-105

Benfica
Porto 		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+140
+185
+145
+200
1.00
1.72		2.72
o2½+102
u2½-122

Games for Apr 5, 2025
Games for Apr 7, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Moreirense
Vitoria		21.8%
52.5%		25.7%
+390
-119
+390
-120
0
1		-0.66363-0.65737-0.64489
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.0%		30.1%
+390
-130
+420
-140
2
1		-1.64672-1.70068-1.20481
Benfica
SC Farense		74.0%
9.6%		16.3%
-800
+1900
-660
+1625
2
1		-0.17410-0.19120-0.30062
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1700
-800
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.17803-0.16779-0.38505
SC Farense
Braga		7.4%
79.1%		13.6%
+810
-315
+800
-325
0
2		-0.32841-0.31680-0.23498
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-345
+900
-340
+1000
3
0		-0.31653-0.30882-0.40115
Moreirense
Boavista		38.9%
30.9%		30.1%
+140
+235
+125
+255
2
0		-0.92284-0.86353-0.94412
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		28.0%
42.9%		29.1%
+300
+113
+290
+115
1
2		-0.81846-0.81369-0.84560
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+500
-217
+550
-215
1
2		-0.44102-0.43209-0.56396
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+825
-265
+810
-275
2
2		-1.54122-1.61888-1.46266
Santa Clara
Moreirense		29.1%
41.7%		29.2%
+200
+165
+225
+160
0
1		-1.03431-1.00376-0.87455
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
+168
+180
+160
+190
1
1		-1.13712-1.18215-1.30815
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+600
-189
+540
-195
0
4		-0.44356-0.46261-0.39674
Boavista
Santa Clara		26.7%
44.3%		29.0%
+550
-175
+520
-170
0
1		-0.50073-0.51204-0.81500
Nacional
Famalicao		24.9%
49.0%		26.1%
+460
-135
+425
-145
0
0		-1.33135-1.36956-1.34415
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+1100
-480
+1375
-600
1
5		-0.25199-0.20516-0.28378
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.75305 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.74202 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59283
0.16022
0.14919

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).