Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-145
+420
-140
+400
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2½-119
u2½+102

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
SC Farense		81.4%
5.9%		12.7%
-280
+800
-335
+925
3
1		-0.33799-0.30953-0.20626
Famalicao
Moreirense		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+210
+150
+220
+140
0
1		-0.95555-0.92591-0.84828
Portimonense
Boavista		27.1%
42.9%		30.0%
+320
-105
+295
+100
4
1		-1.47046-1.42412-1.30549
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		36.4%
32.4%		31.2%
+180
+160
+180
+155
2
0		-1.07790-1.08063-1.01129
Moreirense
Porto		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+800
-275
+685
-275
0
5		-0.33771-0.36010-0.24193
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1700
-825
+1750
-850
0
2		-0.16222-0.16386-0.27409
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
-110
+300
-120
+320
2
1		-0.68631-0.65857-0.41960
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+318
-125
+330
-130
0
2		-0.63160-0.62023-0.56396
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1250
-480
+1500
-625
1
4		-0.21330-0.19679-0.38505
SC Farense
Portimonense		31.9%
37.7%		30.4%
+175
+162
+165
+165
0
1		-1.00608-1.02223-0.97530
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+234
+133
+230
+125
0
2		-0.86581-0.86022-1.24337
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+130
+189
+125
+200
1
0		-0.87266-0.86138-1.06740
Portimonense
Moreirense		21.0%
52.1%		26.9%
+434
-138
+400
-145
2
5		-0.57151-0.57481-0.65220
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
+130
+242
+110
+250
1
1		-1.22370-1.28884-1.34331
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+125
+233
+120
+225
1
1		-1.26819-1.28913-1.19945
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-140
+400
-150
+390
2
3		-1.63985-1.63897-1.42578
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).