Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/04/2025 06:00 PM	Braga Benfica	31.2% 42.9%	25.9%	+690 -290 +750 -300	2 1	-2.12410-2.18836	-1.16386
01/03/2025 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Vitoria	50.2% 24.0%	25.8%	-105 +270 -110 +285	4 4	-1.31875-1.36074	-1.35511
12/30/2024 08:15 PM	Santa Clara Famalicao	31.8% 40.5%	27.6%	+165 +210 +160 +230	2 1	-1.03008-1.00550	-1.14523
12/29/2024 08:30 PM	Benfica Sporting CP	31.7% 41.0%	27.3%	+170 +150 +195 +135	0 1	-0.97878-0.90342	-0.89270
12/29/2024 03:30 PM	Nacional Rio Ave	21.5% 50.9%	27.6%	+270 +110 +290 +110	1 2	-0.80390-0.79078	-0.67533
12/29/2024 03:30 PM	Vitoria SC Farense	57.5% 18.8%	23.7%	-130 +380 -130 +400	2 2	-1.33097-1.30247	-1.43801
12/28/2024 08:30 PM	Boavista Porto	5.2% 82.5%	12.3%	+1400 -600 +1550 -650	0 4	-0.21681-0.19259	-0.19288
12/23/2024 06:45 PM	Nacional Vitoria	14.8% 62.7%	22.5%	+750 -256 +600 -230	2 2	-1.59588-1.60724	-1.49148
12/22/2024 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Gil Vicente FC	68.7% 11.8%	19.4%	-290 +675 -295 +700	0 0	-1.67954-1.75701	-1.63887
12/22/2024 05:00 PM	Braga Santa Clara	64.3% 15.2%	20.5%	+149 +215 +135 +235	2 0	-0.95308-0.90503	-0.44128
12/21/2024 08:30 PM	Porto Moreirense	73.1% 9.7%	17.2%	-220 +600 -205 +575	3 0	-0.44091-0.44626	-0.31375
12/21/2024 03:30 PM	SC Farense Famalicao	23.8% 51.7%	24.5%	+330 -101 +340 -105	2 1	-1.50977-1.53229	-1.43666
12/19/2024 05:00 PM	Benfica Nacional	71.6% 10.4%	18.0%		2 0		-0.33428
12/16/2024 08:45 PM	Vitoria Rio Ave	41.6% 29.4%	29.0%	-130 +360 -110 +340	2 2	-1.32927-1.25734	-1.23705
12/16/2024 06:45 PM	Famalicao Braga	11.0% 73.1%	15.9%	+460 -170 +500 -175	3 3	-1.43330-1.44745	-1.83841
12/14/2024 08:30 PM	Boavista Sporting CP	8.2% 75.8%	16.0%	+1600 -800 +1850 -1000	2 3	-0.17378-0.14531	-0.27693

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).