Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 7, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boavista
Rio Ave 		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+350
-115
+355
-120
0.84
1.35		2.19
o2¼-120
u2¼+102

Braga
Sporting CP 		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+620
-230
+525
-200
1.15
1.43		2.58
o2¾-108
u2¾-109

Games for Apr 6, 2025
Games for Apr 11, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nacional
Famalicao		24.9%
49.0%		26.1%
+460
-135
+425
-145
0
0		-1.33135-1.36956-1.34415
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+1100
-480
+1375
-600
1
5		-0.25199-0.20516-0.28378
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-385
+1000
-475
+1175
3
0		-0.26876-0.24033-0.35763
Famalicao
Moreirense		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+185
+175
+195
0
0		-1.13286-1.11106-1.31174
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-104
+310
-110
+325
3
0		-0.72892-0.69848-0.46380
Braga
Nacional		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-135
+365
-145
+410
3
0		-0.59609-0.57433-0.34308
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+240
+111
+230
+125
2
0		-1.27615-1.24320-1.61979
SC Farense
Porto		4.4%
85.0%		10.6%
+2500
-850
+1900
-750
1
2		-0.14896-0.17396-0.16248
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+320
-102
+335
-115
1
1		-1.23898-1.30203-1.32114
Santa Clara
Benfica		10.3%
72.2%		17.4%
+900
-360
+1050
-400
1
4		-0.30450-0.27538-0.32537
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+295
-105
+325
-105
1
2		-0.74402-0.71832-0.56365
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		68.2%
12.9%		18.9%
-116
+310
-120
+315
0
0		-1.34819-1.38338-1.66395
SC Farense
Nacional		30.0%
40.4%		29.6%
+250
+105
+260
+105
0
2		-0.77538-0.76787-0.90659
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+275
+103
+300
-115
0
2		-0.74819-0.67598-1.24337
Benfica
Moreirense		62.7%
15.9%		21.4%
-230
+620
-230
+620
1
1		-1.55174-1.58655-1.54071
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+360
-139
+395
-150
1
3		-0.59906-0.56154-0.36823
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.02500 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.06958 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.25166
-0.22666
-0.18208

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).