Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-217
+525
-225
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾-109
u2¾-110

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+121
+220
+125
+220
1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-124
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
+101
+310
-105
+325
1
0		-0.75534-0.71832-0.42682
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+400
-149
+410
-150
0
2		-0.57325-0.55890-0.29077
Nacional
SC Farense		32.7%
37.1%		30.2%
+205
+145
+225
+145
2
0		-1.17707-1.22666-1.11783
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+135
+220
+150
+210
0
0		-1.19023-1.16437-1.36900
Moreirense
Benfica		11.5%
70.1%		18.3%
+1200
-500
+1275
-510
2
3		-0.23805-0.22941-0.35473
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+160
+175
+160
+185
1
1		-1.19985-1.19902-1.40360
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-227
+575
-295
+775
2
2		-1.54891-1.70854-1.69925
Braga
Moreirense		61.5%
16.9%		21.6%
+142
+210
+105
+270
2
1		-0.93568-0.76873-0.48591
SC Farense
Sporting CP		6.9%
79.1%		14.0%
+1500
-575
+1600
-725
1
3		-0.22632-0.17678-0.23444
Famalicao
Boavista		37.7%
33.9%		28.4%
+112
+265
+120
+255
2
0		-0.80795-0.83605-0.97482
Boavista
Braga		8.8%
75.6%		15.6%
+775
-335
+1050
-400
0
3		-0.32850-0.27278-0.28020
Santa Clara
Porto		6.4%
79.9%		13.7%
+475
-149
+535
-165
1
1		-1.35004-1.35751-1.98777
Nacional
Sporting CP		7.5%
76.9%		15.6%
+1200
-588
+1175
-600
0
2		-0.21995-0.20281-0.26266
Rio Ave
SC Farense		45.2%
26.5%		28.3%
+205
+142
+235
+135
2
1		-1.17688-1.25956-0.79418
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-220
+600
-220
+625
1
3		-2.01208-2.02997-2.60369
SC Farense
Moreirense		21.7%
52.5%		25.7%
+340
-103
+355
-105
0
0		-1.19819-1.19567-1.35775
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).