Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-143
+390
-145
+410
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2¾-122
u2¾+105

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+310
-110
+295
-110
1
1		-1.33556-1.34442-1.27211
Moreirense
Rio Ave		29.8%
40.3%		29.9%
+174
+175
+180
+160
4
0		-1.04731-1.07790-1.20929
Sporting CP
SC Farense		73.8%
9.5%		16.8%
-275
+732
-260
+650
3
2		-0.34814-0.37577-0.30438
Famalicao
Boavista		37.7%
33.9%		28.4%
+197
+150
+195
+145
2
2		-1.23289-1.24289-1.25878
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+330
-115
+305
-115
0
1		-0.65385-0.67647-1.25857
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+1695
-570
+1600
-625
0
2		-0.19603-0.19713-0.38634
Boavista
Braga		8.8%
75.6%		15.6%
+480
-195
+460
-190
1
4		-0.45282-0.47050-0.28020
Benfica
Portimonense		73.3%
9.5%		17.2%
-447
+1160
-475
+1025
3
1		-0.23728-0.24261-0.31068
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1143
-447
+1050
-420
1
2		-0.23684-0.26322-0.19798
SC Farense
Moreirense		21.7%
52.5%		25.7%
+237
+123
+220
+120
0
1		-0.83241-0.83986-0.64367
Moreirense
Sporting CP		11.3%
69.9%		18.8%
+1025
-400
+1000
-430
0
3		-0.26166-0.25824-0.35838
Portimonense
Vitoria		13.5%
64.8%		21.7%
+550
-180
+500
-175
2
1		-1.90879-1.84049-2.00107
Braga
SC Farense		73.4%
10.3%		16.4%
-135
+368
-145
+355
1
3		-1.56974-1.56638-2.27770
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
+190
+166
+200
+150
1
1		-1.20241-1.19696-1.30815
Braga
Moreirense		61.5%
16.9%		21.6%
-104
+305
+100
+265
3
2		-0.69545-0.74360-0.48591
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
+110
+231
+110
+230
1
1		-1.37559-1.35662-1.29986
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).