Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 30 days ago

Upcoming Games for June 15, 2026

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Games for Jun 14, 2026

Games for Jun 16, 2026

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/14/2025 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Braga	9.3% 74.8%	15.9%	+415 -132 +500 -165	1 0	-1.69065-1.84288	-2.37645
09/13/2025 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Famalicao	67.0% 14.0%	19.0%	-202 +475 -225 +575	2 1	-0.46748-0.41746	-0.40115
09/13/2025 05:00 PM	Nacional Porto	4.8% 83.2%	11.9%	+1400 -500 +1800 -665	0 1	-0.22429-0.19058	-0.18335
09/13/2025 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Moreirense	32.6% 36.8%	30.5%	+275 +117 +290 +115	1 3	-0.82360-0.81369	-0.99840
09/12/2025 07:15 PM	Santa Clara Benfica	10.3% 72.2%	17.4%	+1100 -365 +1025 -340	1 1	-1.71535-1.71674	-1.74726
08/31/2025 07:30 PM	Braga Rio Ave	59.4% 18.0%	22.6%	-143 +410 -130 +365	2 2	-1.39143-1.35763	-1.48625
08/30/2025 07:30 PM	Porto Sporting CP	44.2% 28.8%	27.0%	+305 -112 +270 +110	2 1	-1.45406-1.35662	-0.81665
08/29/2025 07:15 PM	Moreirense Gil Vicente FC	37.6% 32.3%	30.1%	+230 +154 +235 +150	0 2	-0.97984-0.96451	-1.13075
08/24/2025 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Famalicao	28.2% 45.1%	26.7%	+370 -110 +400 -120	0 0	-1.24344-1.23045	-1.32114
08/23/2025 07:30 PM	Tondela Benfica	7.4% 77.8%	14.8%	+1400 -675 +1800 -750	0 3	-0.19890-0.17326	-0.25102
08/23/2025 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Nacional	71.2% 10.2%	18.5%	-435 +1000 -400 +970	4 1	-0.26895-0.27402	-0.33912
08/23/2025 03:00 PM	Vitoria Moreirense	43.7% 28.1%	28.1%	+146 +200 +150 +205	0 2	-1.15916-1.16437	-1.26844
08/18/2025 07:15 PM	Porto Gil Vicente FC	77.6% 7.4%	15.0%	-233 +650 -260 +700	2 0	-0.40630-0.37545	-0.25319
08/17/2025 05:00 PM	Moreirense Santa Clara	33.7% 35.9%	30.4%	+375 -109 +350 +100	1 0	-1.60934-1.55296	-1.08773
08/17/2025 02:30 PM	Nacional Rio Ave	21.5% 50.9%	27.6%	+255 +119 +255 +115	1 1	-1.22363-1.24258	-1.28649
08/16/2025 02:30 PM	Famalicao Tondela	40.9% 31.4%	27.7%	-101 +315 -105 +330	1 0	-0.74261-0.72017	-0.89419

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).