Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-220
+550
-225
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾+104
u2¾-115

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210
+125
+220
1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-123
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-280
+720
-350
+825
3
0		-0.36635-0.30254-0.50345
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+1000
-420
+1000
-400
0
4		-0.27681-0.27279-0.30013
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%
+265
+116
+275
+115
1
1		-1.17795-1.19548-1.19069
SC Farense
Santa Clara		23.8%
49.3%		26.8%
+500
-149
+560
-150
0
0		-1.24890-1.25776-1.31606
Braga
Benfica		31.2%
42.9%		25.9%
+690
-290
+750
-300
2
1		-2.12410-2.18836-1.16386
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-105
+270
-110
+285
4
4		-1.31875-1.36074-1.35511
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+165
+210
+160
+230
2
1		-1.03008-1.00550-1.14523
Benfica
Sporting CP		31.7%
41.0%		27.3%
+170
+150
+195
+135
0
1		-0.97878-0.90342-0.89270
Nacional
Rio Ave		21.5%
50.9%		27.6%
+270
+110
+290
+110
1
2		-0.80390-0.79078-0.67533
Vitoria
SC Farense		57.5%
18.8%		23.7%
-130
+380
-130
+400
2
2		-1.33097-1.30247-1.43801
Boavista
Porto		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1400
-600
+1550
-650
0
4		-0.21681-0.19259-0.19288
Nacional
Vitoria		14.8%
62.7%		22.5%
+750
-256
+600
-230
2
2		-1.59588-1.60724-1.49148
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-290
+675
-295
+700
0
0		-1.67954-1.75701-1.63887
Braga
Santa Clara		64.3%
15.2%		20.5%
+149
+215
+135
+235
2
0		-0.95308-0.90503-0.44128
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-220
+600
-205
+575
3
0		-0.44091-0.44626-0.31375
SC Farense
Famalicao		23.8%
51.7%		24.5%
+330
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.50977-1.53229-1.43666
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).