Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/08/2024 08:15 PM	Gil Vicente FC Moreirense	25.8% 46.1%	28.1%	+265 +121 +240 +130	2 3	-0.84590-0.88312	-0.77496
11/04/2024 08:15 PM	Santa Clara Nacional	38.2% 31.1%	30.7%	+157 +185 +150 +210	0 2	-1.10800-1.18061	-1.16709
11/03/2024 06:00 PM	Moreirense Vitoria	21.8% 52.5%	25.7%	+390 -119 +390 -120	0 1	-0.66363-0.65737	-0.64489
11/02/2024 08:30 PM	Boavista Gil Vicente FC	30.0% 40.0%	30.1%	+390 -130 +420 -140	2 1	-1.64672-1.70068	-1.20481
11/02/2024 06:00 PM	Benfica SC Farense	74.0% 9.6%	16.3%	-800 +1900 -660 +1625	2 1	-0.17410-0.19120	-0.30062
10/27/2024 06:00 PM	Rio Ave Benfica	12.4% 68.0%	19.5%	+1700 -800 +1850 -800	0 5	-0.17803-0.16779	-0.38505
10/27/2024 03:30 PM	SC Farense Braga	7.4% 79.1%	13.6%	+810 -315 +800 -325	0 2	-0.32841-0.31680	-0.23498
10/26/2024 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Famalicao	67.0% 14.0%	19.0%	-345 +900 -340 +1000	3 0	-0.31653-0.30882	-0.40115
10/26/2024 05:00 PM	Moreirense Boavista	38.9% 30.9%	30.1%	+140 +235 +125 +255	2 0	-0.92284-0.86353	-0.94412
10/25/2024 07:45 PM	Gil Vicente FC Santa Clara	28.0% 42.9%	29.1%	+300 +113 +290 +115	1 2	-0.81846-0.81369	-0.84560
10/06/2024 07:30 PM	Braga Porto	20.5% 56.9%	22.6%	+500 -217 +550 -215	1 2	-0.44102-0.43209	-0.56396
10/06/2024 02:30 PM	Boavista Vitoria	16.2% 60.6%	23.2%	+825 -265 +810 -275	2 2	-1.54122-1.61888	-1.46266
10/05/2024 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Moreirense	29.1% 41.7%	29.2%	+200 +165 +225 +160	0 1	-1.03431-1.00376	-0.87455
10/04/2024 07:15 PM	Famalicao Rio Ave	28.6% 44.3%	27.0%	+168 +180 +160 +190	1 1	-1.13712-1.18215	-1.30815
09/29/2024 07:30 PM	Rio Ave Braga	13.2% 67.3%	19.5%	+600 -189 +540 -195	0 4	-0.44356-0.46261	-0.39674
09/29/2024 07:30 PM	Boavista Santa Clara	26.7% 44.3%	29.0%	+550 -175 +520 -170	0 1	-0.50073-0.51204	-0.81500

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).