Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 11, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC 		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+110
+280

1.49
0.89		2.38
o2-122
u2+106

Games for Apr 10, 2025
Games for Apr 12, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Moreirense		62.7%
15.9%		21.4%
-230
+620
-230
+620
1
1		-1.55174-1.58655-1.54071
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+360
-139
+395
-150
1
3		-0.59906-0.56154-0.36823
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+500
-170
+525
-165
0
1		-0.52707-0.52192-0.76520
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1000
-400
+1075
-400
0
2		-0.27913-0.27362-0.26130
Sporting CP
SC Farense		73.8%
9.5%		16.8%
-550
+1200
-560
+1200
5
0		-0.23091-0.21348-0.30438
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-161
+440
-200
+510
1
0		-0.53684-0.45462-0.36807
Sporting CP
Nacional		71.2%
10.2%		18.5%
-435
+1000
-420
+1000
6
1		-0.27017-0.26469-0.33912
SC Farense
Rio Ave		20.5%
53.8%		25.7%
+280
+112
+280
+100
0
1		-0.78860-0.74482-0.61984
Porto
Santa Clara		74.9%
8.7%		16.4%
-130
+360
-135
+330
2
0		-0.59671-0.60684-0.28866
Moreirense
SC Farense		43.8%
28.0%		28.2%
+160
+173
+155
+190
2
1		-1.02641-0.98438-0.82567
Benfica
Famalicao		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-190
+470
-205
+525
0
2		-1.80169-1.88092-1.94449
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1000
-400
+1200
-480
0
3		-0.28595-0.23953-0.19798
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+1700
-850
+1600
-800
1
3		-0.17200-0.16940-0.38634
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+113
+235
+110
+230
1
0		-0.79367-0.79025-0.73856
Portimonense
SC Farense		30.6%
39.5%		29.9%
+115
+186
+120
+180
3
1		-0.83119-0.83977-1.18283
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-263
+575
-245
+610
1
1		-1.71158-1.65921-1.48488
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).