Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-150
+400
-145
+410
2.22
0.75		2.97
o2¾-128
u3-122

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+950
-375
+1000
-400
0
4		-0.27653-0.27279-0.52974
SC Farense
Famalicao		23.8%
51.7%		24.5%
+221
+130
+275
+105
0
1		-0.88107-0.76947-0.66037
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-237
+720
-210
+600
2
1		-0.39374-0.43841-0.33864
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+1050
-420
+1050
-425
0
1		-0.25981-0.26042-0.30213
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-345
+940
-350
+825
3
2		-0.28928-0.30254-0.37154
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.4%
37.6%		28.0%
+218
+130
+215
+130
0
0		-1.26624-1.25846-1.27293
SC Farense
Porto		4.4%
85.0%		10.6%
+1600
-550
+1550
-600
1
2		-0.20464-0.20397-0.16248
Boavista
Portimonense		34.8%
33.4%		31.8%
+140
+226
+150
+205
4
1		-0.90609-0.96551-1.05656
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+275
+115
+265
+110
1
2		-0.79969-0.79376-0.51919
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-300
+950
-330
+875
2
3		-2.37645-2.32780-2.16814
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-275
+700
-275
+700
2
1		-0.35956-0.35782-0.31375
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		26.1%
44.7%		29.3%
+335
-120
+335
-115
0
5		-0.65427-0.67495-0.80573
Famalicao
Braga		11.0%
73.1%		15.9%
+475
-185
+565
-220
2
1		-1.79830-1.94400-2.21174
Pacos
Braga		15.8%
63.8%		20.4%
+875
-382
+875
-400
0
3		-0.26938-0.27366-0.44998
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+1299
-540
+1185
-500
0
3		-0.20402-0.23208-0.35288
Santa Clara
Benfica		10.3%
72.2%		17.4%
+3199
-1500
+2300
-1720
0
3		-0.08578-0.10853-0.32537
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).