Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 22 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/29/2024 02:30 PM	Nacional Famalicao	24.9% 49.0%	26.1%	+460 -135 +425 -145	0 0	-1.33135-1.36956	-1.34415
09/28/2024 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Benfica	8.8% 75.3%	15.9%	+1100 -480 +1375 -600	1 5	-0.25199-0.20516	-0.28378
09/23/2024 07:15 PM	Benfica Boavista	69.9% 11.4%	18.6%	-385 +1000 -475 +1175	3 0	-0.26876-0.24033	-0.35763
09/21/2024 07:30 PM	Famalicao Moreirense	30.2% 42.8%	26.9%	+165 +185 +175 +195	0 0	-1.13286-1.11106	-1.31174
09/21/2024 05:00 PM	Porto Vitoria	62.9% 15.7%	21.4%	-104 +310 -110 +325	3 0	-0.72892-0.69848	-0.46380
09/20/2024 07:15 PM	Braga Nacional	71.0% 11.1%	17.9%	-135 +365 -145 +410	3 0	-0.59609-0.57433	-0.34308
09/15/2024 07:30 PM	Vitoria Braga	19.8% 57.5%	22.7%	+240 +111 +230 +125	2 0	-1.27615-1.24320	-1.61979
09/15/2024 02:30 PM	SC Farense Porto	4.4% 85.0%	10.6%	+2500 -850 +1900 -750	1 2	-0.14896-0.17396	-0.16248
09/14/2024 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Famalicao	28.2% 45.1%	26.7%	+320 -102 +335 -115	1 1	-1.23898-1.30203	-1.32114
09/14/2024 07:30 PM	Santa Clara Benfica	10.3% 72.2%	17.4%	+900 -360 +1050 -400	1 4	-0.30450-0.27538	-0.32537
09/01/2024 07:30 PM	Famalicao Vitoria	20.2% 56.9%	22.9%	+295 -105 +325 -105	1 2	-0.74402-0.71832	-0.56365
09/01/2024 07:30 PM	Braga Gil Vicente FC	68.2% 12.9%	18.9%	-116 +310 -120 +315	0 0	-1.34819-1.38338	-1.66395
09/01/2024 02:30 PM	SC Farense Nacional	30.0% 40.4%	29.6%	+250 +105 +260 +105	0 2	-0.77538-0.76787	-0.90659
08/31/2024 07:30 PM	Porto Sporting CP	44.2% 28.8%	27.0%	+275 +103 +300 -115	0 2	-0.74819-0.67598	-1.24337
08/30/2024 07:15 PM	Benfica Moreirense	62.7% 15.9%	21.4%	-230 +620 -230 +620	1 1	-1.55174-1.58655	-1.54071
08/25/2024 07:30 PM	Moreirense Braga	12.3% 69.2%	18.5%	+360 -139 +395 -150	1 3	-0.59906-0.56154	-0.36823

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).