Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 22 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/24/2024 07:30 PM	Boavista Famalicao	26.9% 46.5%	26.5%	+500 -170 +525 -165	0 1	-0.52707-0.52192	-0.76520
08/24/2024 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Porto	7.6% 77.0%	15.4%	+1000 -400 +1075 -400	0 2	-0.27913-0.27362	-0.26130
08/23/2024 07:15 PM	Sporting CP SC Farense	73.8% 9.5%	16.8%	-550 +1200 -560 +1200	5 0	-0.23091-0.21348	-0.30438
08/18/2024 07:30 PM	Braga Boavista	69.2% 12.2%	18.6%	-161 +440 -200 +510	1 0	-0.53684-0.45462	-0.36807
08/17/2024 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Nacional	71.2% 10.2%	18.5%	-435 +1000 -420 +1000	6 1	-0.27017-0.26469	-0.33912
08/17/2024 02:30 PM	SC Farense Rio Ave	20.5% 53.8%	25.7%	+280 +112 +280 +100	0 1	-0.78860-0.74482	-0.61984
08/16/2024 04:00 PM	Porto Santa Clara	74.9% 8.7%	16.4%	-130 +360 -135 +330	2 0	-0.59671-0.60684	-0.28866
08/11/2024 05:00 PM	Moreirense SC Farense	43.8% 28.0%	28.2%	+160 +173 +155 +190	2 1	-1.02641-0.98438	-0.82567
08/11/2024 05:00 PM	Benfica Famalicao	67.0% 14.3%	18.7%	-190 +470 -205 +525	0 2	-1.80169-1.88092	-1.94449
08/10/2024 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Porto	5.4% 82.0%	12.5%	+1000 -400 +1200 -480	0 3	-0.28595-0.23953	-0.19798
08/09/2024 07:15 PM	Rio Ave Sporting CP	12.1% 68.0%	19.9%	+1700 -850 +1600 -800	1 3	-0.17200-0.16940	-0.38634
05/18/2024 07:30 PM	Porto Braga	47.8% 27.1%	25.1%	+113 +235 +110 +230	1 0	-0.79367-0.79025	-0.73856
05/18/2024 02:30 PM	Portimonense SC Farense	30.6% 39.5%	29.9%	+115 +186 +120 +180	3 1	-0.83119-0.83977	-1.18283
05/17/2024 07:45 PM	Benfica Rio Ave	60.4% 16.9%	22.7%	-263 +575 -245 +610	1 1	-1.71158-1.65921	-1.48488
05/12/2024 07:30 PM	Boavista Porto	5.2% 82.5%	12.3%	+1600 -725 +1750 -800	1 2	-0.18849-0.16485	-0.19288
05/12/2024 02:30 PM	SC Farense Gil Vicente FC	27.1% 44.9%	28.0%	+340 -135 +360 -135	0 2	-0.60181-0.60462	-0.80060

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).