Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1500
-850
+1650
-800
0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-115
u3¾-130

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+510
-195
+625
-230
1
2		-0.48056-0.41198-0.20038
Boavista
SC Farense		34.8%
34.8%		30.4%
+385
-130
+420
-140
1
0		-1.63450-1.70068-1.05653
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		27.5%
43.1%		29.4%
+105
+300
+115
+275
1
1		-1.19000-1.19548-1.22350
Rio Ave
Moreirense		32.6%
36.8%		30.5%
+235
+126
+235
+135
2
0		-1.27554-1.25956-1.12024
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-180
+550
-180
+570
1
0		-0.49359-0.49238-0.42975
Nacional
Boavista		29.1%
40.5%		30.4%
+135
+210
+145
+205
1
0		-0.91794-0.94348-1.23560
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+135
+260
+110
+280
1
0		-0.88513-0.79248-0.67199
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+700
-275
+750
-280
1
1		-1.62475-1.67857-1.33899
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+275
+106
+310
-110
2
0		-1.36285-1.46305-1.45964
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+120
+225
+130
+220
4
1		-0.83924-0.88201-1.52450
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+220
+151
+235
+150
1
0		-1.21076-1.25716-0.97883
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+340
+100
+350
+100
0
2		-0.75305-0.74202-0.59283
SC Farense
Benfica		7.0%
79.4%		13.6%
+1500
-675
+1700
-725
2
3		-0.19497-0.17860-0.23011
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+144
+225
+140
+225
3
1		-0.94161-0.92637-1.12803
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+122
+255
+110
+280
2
2		-1.18469-1.21372-1.26798
Nacional
Santa Clara		24.8%
46.5%		28.6%
+370
-120
+445
-135
0
1		-0.65716-0.60508-0.76477
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).