Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-220
+550
-225
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾+104
u2¾-115

Famalicao
Nacional 		40.1%
31.7%		28.2%
+128
+210
+125
+220
1.24
1.07		2.31
o2¼-123
u2¼+105

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+300
-105
+295
-105
1
4		-0.71820-0.71885-1.25857
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
-167
+420
-175
+460
4
2		-0.52911-0.50099-1.05788
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+180
+165
+185
+185
0
1		-1.04979-1.09862-1.35476
Rio Ave
Boavista		40.4%
29.4%		30.2%
+165
+195
+170
+180
2
0		-1.01275-1.04214-0.90656
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		25.8%
46.1%		28.1%
+265
+121
+240
+130
2
3		-0.84590-0.88312-0.77496
Santa Clara
Nacional		38.2%
31.1%		30.7%
+157
+185
+150
+210
0
2		-1.10800-1.18061-1.16709
Moreirense
Vitoria		21.8%
52.5%		25.7%
+390
-119
+390
-120
0
1		-0.66363-0.65737-0.64489
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.0%		30.1%
+390
-130
+420
-140
2
1		-1.64672-1.70068-1.20481
Benfica
SC Farense		74.0%
9.6%		16.3%
-800
+1900
-660
+1625
2
1		-0.17410-0.19120-0.30062
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1700
-800
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.17803-0.16779-0.38505
SC Farense
Braga		7.4%
79.1%		13.6%
+810
-315
+800
-325
0
2		-0.32841-0.31680-0.23498
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-345
+900
-340
+1000
3
0		-0.31653-0.30882-0.40115
Moreirense
Boavista		38.9%
30.9%		30.1%
+140
+235
+125
+255
2
0		-0.92284-0.86353-0.94412
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		28.0%
42.9%		29.1%
+300
+113
+290
+115
1
2		-0.81846-0.81369-0.84560
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+500
-217
+550
-215
1
2		-0.44102-0.43209-0.56396
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+825
-265
+810
-275
2
2		-1.54122-1.61888-1.46266
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).