Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 19, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Nacional 		34.1%
34.4%		31.5%
+210
+147
+200
+150
0.96
0.97		1.93
o2¼-102
u2¼-114

Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-156
+400
-170
+460
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2¾+100
u2¾-119

Games for Apr 18, 2025
Games for Apr 25, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+205
+140
+195
+140
2
2		-1.22960-1.27236-1.40360
Moreirense
Portimonense		43.6%
27.0%		29.4%
+179
+170
+170
+165
2
0		-1.07125-1.04276-0.82970
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+390
-133
+390
-140
0
1		-0.61572-0.58834-0.50005
Braga
Benfica		31.2%
42.9%		25.9%
+420
-175
+410
-185
1
3		-0.50400-0.48225-0.84714
Benfica
SC Farense		74.0%
9.6%		16.3%
-315
+700
-300
+725
3
1		-0.34265-0.33626-0.30062
Vitoria
Sporting CP		18.1%
58.8%		23.0%
+1200
-476
+960
-375
0
3		-0.24192-0.28564-0.53020
Portimonense
Famalicao		23.0%
51.6%		25.4%
+420
-150
+420
-150
2
2		-1.39885-1.39885-1.36908
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		25.8%
46.1%		28.1%
+195
+150
+210
+140
1
0		-1.13672-1.18185-1.35534
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-345
+825
-350
+900
1
0		-0.31464-0.30171-0.40115
Moreirense
Benfica		11.5%
70.1%		18.3%
+750
-290
+800
-325
0
3		-0.33843-0.31680-0.35473
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+1100
-400
+1300
-475
2
2		-1.84049-1.92189-2.12352
SC Farense
Vitoria		13.9%
65.5%		20.7%
+500
-192
+560
-200
1
1		-1.47688-1.50810-1.57687
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-360
+850
-380
+1000
4
0		-0.30945-0.28303-0.37523
Vitoria
Porto		11.4%
70.3%		18.3%
+730
-275
+750
-300
2
1		-2.17657-2.19149-2.16840
Benfica
Sporting CP		31.7%
41.0%		27.3%
+235
+112
+240
+110
1
2		-0.80975-0.79264-0.89270
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		24.4%
47.4%		28.3%
+205
+150
+230
+140
0
3		-0.97054-0.92712-0.74693
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.87758 
Sportsbooks42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.88200 
DRatings42-1-1 (0.625)0-0.70970
0.16788
0.17230

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).