Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Braga
Nacional 		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-135
+365
-145
+410
2.22
0.75		2.97
o3+105
u3-122

Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+1583
-500
+1400
-500
1
2		-0.21594-0.22429-0.30213
Boavista
Porto		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1650
-500
+1500
-600
0
1		-0.20066-0.20577-0.19288
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-354
+1046
-305
+775
2
0		-0.27952-0.33320-0.37154
Vitoria
Maritimo		49.1%
23.8%		27.0%
+217
+147
+200
+140
2
1		-1.18042-1.15031-0.71088
Portimonense
Braga		7.3%
78.2%		14.5%
+1100
-410
+1000
-400
1
4		-0.24692-0.27527-0.24590
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-240
+734
-250
+720
2
0		-0.37856-0.38649-0.68983
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		36.4%
32.4%		31.2%
+179
+166
+185
+155
0
1		-1.00726-0.98556-1.12766
Porto
Pacos		68.3%
12.4%		19.2%
-450
+1492
-360
+1030
2
0		-0.22464-0.29514-0.38092
Rio Ave
Boavista		40.4%
29.4%		30.2%
+229
+147
+225
+135
2
3		-0.93412-0.90387-1.22299
Maritimo
Famalicao		29.6%
43.1%		27.2%
+338
-105
+265
+110
2
3		-0.69896-0.79376-0.84079
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+845
-320
+790
-315
0
1		-0.30207-0.32755-0.29077
Santa Clara
Porto		6.4%
79.9%		13.7%
+2391
-725
+1750
-700
1
2		-0.14161-0.18257-0.22394
Pacos
Maritimo		42.7%
28.6%		28.7%
+256
+126
+250
+120
1
3		-0.84413-0.83986-1.25316
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+341
-102
+290
+105
1
2		-0.70629-0.76845-1.32189
Famalicao
Pacos		24.9%
50.1%		25.0%
+176
+189
+180
+180
3
1		-1.04569-1.07614-1.39175
Rio Ave
Portimonense		44.9%
25.5%		29.6%
+207
+162
+205
+155
2
2		-1.15204-1.16190-1.21790
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).