Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 22 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/11/2024 07:30 PM	Braga Vitoria	48.5% 26.2%	25.3%	+121 +230 +120 +205	3 2	-0.83736-0.83637	-0.72371
05/11/2024 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Portimonense	44.9% 25.5%	29.6%	+195 +140 +205 +135	2 2	-1.26167-1.25956	-1.21790
05/05/2024 07:30 PM	Benfica Famalicao	67.0% 14.3%	18.7%	-238 +575 -260 +625	0 2	-1.96049-2.03042	-1.94449
05/04/2024 05:00 PM	Portimonense Sporting CP	6.8% 78.2%	15.0%	+1800 -1500 +2200 -1350	0 3	-0.11979-0.12161	-0.24604
05/04/2024 02:30 PM	Vitoria Rio Ave	41.6% 29.4%	29.0%	+125 +230 +145 +200	1 2	-1.25685-1.15119	-1.22509
05/04/2024 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Boavista	32.4% 37.0%	30.7%	+177 +175 +180 +165	1 1	-1.16632-1.19806	-1.18215
04/28/2024 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Porto	22.2% 53.2%	24.6%	+205 +140 +195 +140	2 2	-1.22960-1.27236	-1.40360
04/28/2024 02:30 PM	Moreirense Portimonense	43.6% 27.0%	29.4%	+179 +170 +170 +165	2 0	-1.07125-1.04276	-0.82970
04/27/2024 07:30 PM	Boavista Vitoria	16.2% 60.6%	23.2%	+390 -133 +390 -140	0 1	-0.61572-0.58834	-0.50005
04/27/2024 05:00 PM	Braga Benfica	31.2% 42.9%	25.9%	+420 -175 +410 -185	1 3	-0.50400-0.48225	-0.84714
04/22/2024 07:15 PM	Benfica SC Farense	74.0% 9.6%	16.3%	-315 +700 -300 +725	3 1	-0.34265-0.33626	-0.30062
04/21/2024 07:30 PM	Vitoria Sporting CP	18.1% 58.8%	23.0%	+1200 -476 +960 -375	0 3	-0.24192-0.28564	-0.53020
04/21/2024 02:30 PM	Portimonense Famalicao	23.0% 51.6%	25.4%	+420 -150 +420 -150	2 2	-1.39885-1.39885	-1.36908
04/20/2024 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Moreirense	25.8% 46.1%	28.1%	+195 +150 +210 +140	1 0	-1.13672-1.18185	-1.35534
04/16/2024 07:15 PM	Sporting CP Famalicao	67.0% 14.0%	19.0%	-345 +825 -350 +900	1 0	-0.31464-0.30171	-0.40115
04/14/2024 07:30 PM	Moreirense Benfica	11.5% 70.1%	18.3%	+750 -290 +800 -325	0 3	-0.33843-0.31680	-0.35473

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).