Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
+108
+285
+110
+275
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-106
u2¼-112

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+191
+155
+190
+160
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-125
u2+108

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Portimonense		44.9%
25.5%		29.6%
+207
+162
+205
+155
2
2		-1.15204-1.16190-1.21790
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
+209
+161
+195
+160
1
2		-0.98428-1.00570-1.53675
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+363
-120
+330
-115
2
1		-1.55822-1.50657-0.79118
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		68.7%
11.8%		19.4%
-264
+824
-255
+725
0
0		-1.67884-1.59855-1.63887
Portimonense
Porto		4.4%
84.1%		11.5%
+1839
-636
+1650
-750
0
1		-0.17072-0.17453-0.17319
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-361
+1396
-375
+1100
1
0		-0.27107-0.28648-0.50397
Boavista
Maritimo		28.6%
41.5%		30.0%
+239
+137
+245
+120
2
4		-0.88814-0.83924-0.88037
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		10.1%
71.9%		17.9%
+2303
-785
+2250
-1000
0
3		-0.15333-0.14566-0.32960
Pacos
Vitoria		26.8%
45.9%		27.3%
+290
+113
+300
+100
0
0		-1.23729-1.24559-1.29931
Famalicao
Boavista		37.7%
33.9%		28.4%
+199
+175
+210
+155
2
1		-1.12196-1.17837-0.97482
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+130
+233
+120
+230
0
0		-1.28764-1.27418-1.38174
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+1735
-625
+1800
-650
1
5		-0.17560-0.19439-0.52974
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.8%
34.0%		31.2%
+200
+183
+205
+160
2
0		-1.12396-1.16533-1.05527
Boavista
Sporting CP		8.2%
75.8%		16.0%
+1150
-373
+950
-370
0
3		-0.25742-0.28083-0.27693
Benfica
Maritimo		67.3%
12.9%		19.7%
-361
+1050
-385
+1000
3
0		-0.27537-0.28102-0.39559
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		24.4%
47.4%		28.3%
+218
+149
+220
+140
1
2		-0.93856-0.92591-0.74693
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).