Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 22 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/13/2024 05:00 PM	Famalicao Porto	6.2% 81.8%	12.0%	+1100 -400 +1300 -475	2 2	-1.84049-1.92189	-2.12352
04/13/2024 02:30 PM	SC Farense Vitoria	13.9% 65.5%	20.7%	+500 -192 +560 -200	1 1	-1.47688-1.50810	-1.57687
04/12/2024 07:15 PM	Sporting CP Gil Vicente FC	68.7% 11.8%	19.4%	-360 +850 -380 +1000	4 0	-0.30945-0.28303	-0.37523
04/07/2024 07:30 PM	Vitoria Porto	11.4% 70.3%	18.3%	+730 -275 +750 -300	2 1	-2.17657-2.19149	-2.16840
04/06/2024 07:30 PM	Benfica Sporting CP	31.7% 41.0%	27.3%	+235 +112 +240 +110	1 2	-0.80975-0.79264	-0.89270
04/06/2024 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Rio Ave	24.4% 47.4%	28.3%	+205 +150 +230 +140	0 3	-0.97054-0.92712	-0.74693
04/05/2024 07:15 PM	Boavista SC Farense	34.8% 34.8%	30.4%	+255 +111 +260 +110	0 2	-0.80809-0.79308	-1.05512
04/01/2024 07:15 PM	Braga Portimonense	72.6% 10.1%	17.3%	-240 +600 -240 +650	5 3	-0.41234-0.39686	-0.32037
03/30/2024 06:00 PM	Rio Ave Boavista	40.4% 29.4%	30.2%	+155 +200 +145 +215	0 0	-1.16709-1.17847	-1.19845
03/30/2024 03:30 PM	Moreirense Vitoria	21.8% 52.5%	25.7%	+310 -102 +335 -110	0 1	-0.73829-0.69752	-0.64489
03/29/2024 03:30 PM	Famalicao Gil Vicente FC	36.3% 35.3%	28.4%	+195 +158 +220 +140	2 1	-1.12492-1.21362	-1.01294
03/17/2024 08:30 PM	Boavista Sporting CP	8.2% 75.8%	16.0%	+1800 -725 +1700 -650	1 6	-0.17712-0.19309	-0.27693
03/16/2024 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Braga	9.3% 74.8%	15.9%	+600 -240 +600 -235	1 2	-0.39591-0.40386	-0.29077
03/16/2024 06:00 PM	Rio Ave SC Farense	45.2% 26.5%	28.3%	+185 +177 +175 +175	1 1	-1.15414-1.18006	-1.26277
03/09/2024 08:30 PM	Famalicao Vitoria	20.2% 56.9%	22.9%	+295 +105 +280 +105	0 1	-0.75485-0.76613	-0.56365
03/09/2024 06:00 PM	Moreirense Boavista	38.9% 30.9%	30.1%	+145 +229 +145 +225	0 1	-1.23533-1.22666	-1.17296

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).