Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 23 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/09/2024 06:00 PM	Braga Rio Ave	59.4% 18.0%	22.6%	-128 +342 -130 +350	0 0	-1.38454-1.38438	-1.48625
03/08/2024 06:45 PM	Porto Portimonense	80.5% 5.9%	13.6%	-475 +1300 -400 +1050	3 0	-0.24002-0.27278	-0.21740
03/04/2024 08:15 PM	Boavista Famalicao	26.9% 46.5%	26.5%	+260 +120 +280 +110	1 1	-1.19600-1.21372	-1.32652
03/03/2024 08:30 PM	Benfica Porto	21.8% 54.4%	23.8%	+201 +135 +195 +140	0 5	-0.90093-0.92402	-0.60897
03/03/2024 06:00 PM	SC Farense Sporting CP	6.9% 79.1%	14.0%	+1750 -725 +2250 -1100	2 3	-0.16823-0.13592	-0.23444
03/02/2024 03:30 PM	Rio Ave Moreirense	32.6% 36.8%	30.5%	+235 +140 +260 +130	0 0	-1.14599-1.13206	-1.18662
02/26/2024 08:15 PM	Braga Boavista	69.2% 12.2%	18.6%	-135 +390 -140 +375	4 0	-0.59517-0.58805	-0.36807
02/25/2024 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Rio Ave	60.4% 16.5%	23.0%	-460 +1450 -425 +1200	3 3	-1.86659-1.85745	-1.46833
02/25/2024 06:00 PM	Portimonense Benfica	6.9% 78.6%	14.4%	+2400 -933 +2175 -1100	0 4	-0.15074-0.13726	-0.24026
02/25/2024 06:00 PM	Porto Gil Vicente FC	77.6% 7.4%	15.0%	-215 +615 -225 +625	1 1	-1.54778-1.55519	-1.89986
02/24/2024 03:30 PM	Moreirense SC Farense	43.8% 28.0%	28.2%	+180 +174 +170 +180	1 0	-1.07840-1.04214	-0.82567
02/19/2024 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Moreirense	62.6% 15.5%	21.9%	-280 +815 -330 +900	2 0	-0.34672-0.31278	-0.46860
02/18/2024 08:30 PM	SC Farense Braga	7.4% 79.1%	13.6%	+535 -210 +550 -230	1 2	-0.41998-0.41059	-0.23498
02/17/2024 06:00 PM	Vitoria Portimonense	57.0% 18.2%	24.8%	-115 +320 -120 +340	1 1	-1.33245-1.33018	-1.39404
02/16/2024 08:15 PM	Rio Ave Famalicao	35.7% 35.6%	28.7%	+290 +115 +295 +110	1 2	-0.80863-0.79257	-1.03218
02/11/2024 08:30 PM	Benfica Vitoria	50.0% 24.7%	25.3%	-155 +440 -175 +460	2 2	-1.42841-1.49593	-1.37563

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).