Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
+108
+285
+110
+275
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-106
u2¼-112

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+191
+155
+190
+160
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-125
u2+108

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Pacos		24.2%
48.9%		26.9%
+301
+110
+255
+115
0
1		-0.76748-0.81410-0.71509
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+599
-178
+625
-200
0
2		-0.47506-0.45569-0.39674
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+187
+184
+180
+180
3
1		-1.07819-1.07614-0.76295
Maritimo
Gil Vicente FC		32.5%
36.8%		30.6%
+350
-110
+340
-115
0
2		-0.66865-0.67641-0.99886
Sporting CP
Portimonense		72.9%
9.3%		17.7%
-273
+872
-315
+900
1
0		-0.34250-0.32403-0.31596
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
-105
+318
+100
+290
1
2		-1.47081-1.41026-1.34044
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1630
-600
+1500
-620
2
1		-2.88993-2.82397-2.91029
Boavista
Pacos		20.0%
54.6%		25.4%
+185
+165
+185
+165
3
1		-1.09198-1.09688-1.60809
Santa Clara
Maritimo		33.2%
36.0%		30.9%
+280
+125
+280
+115
1
3		-0.84579-0.81507-1.02285
Portimonense
Famalicao		23.0%
51.6%		25.4%
+390
-120
+380
-120
0
1		-0.64478-0.65710-0.66242
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1900
-666
+1900
-725
1
3		-0.17606-0.17800-0.27409
Famalicao
Santa Clara		32.7%
39.6%		27.7%
+145
+226
+160
+200
3
1		-0.93902-1.00550-1.11862
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1463
-463
+1400
-525
0
1		-0.22436-0.22078-0.26130
Maritimo
Portimonense		37.8%
30.9%		31.2%
+214
+150
+210
+140
1
2		-0.94305-0.92591-1.17299
Braga
Maritimo		66.3%
13.8%		19.9%
-111
+330
-120
+330
2
1		-0.67082-0.65682-0.41075
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+197
+165
+190
+160
2
1		-1.11572-1.11541-0.81665
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).