Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
+108
+285
+110
+275
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-107
u2¼-110

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+193
+155
+190
+160
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-122
u2+105

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+282
+112
+265
+105
1
0		-1.36665-1.34508-1.26429
Portimonense
Vitoria		13.5%
64.8%		21.7%
+348
-103
+350
-115
0
1		-0.69465-0.67566-0.43453
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-267
+911
-265
+850
1
0		-0.34817-0.36769-0.50345
Pacos
Portimonense		50.8%
22.3%		26.9%
+242
+138
+230
+135
0
1		-0.89377-0.90429-1.50076
Famalicao
Braga		11.0%
73.1%		15.9%
+571
-180
+575
-190
1
4		-0.46973-0.47188-0.31292
Boavista
Santa Clara		26.7%
44.3%		29.0%
+187
+191
+175
+185
2
2		-1.12371-1.13392-1.23729
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+330
-109
+325
-115
0
5		-0.67505-0.67627-0.83667
Porto
Maritimo		76.4%
7.9%		15.7%
-370
+1278
-380
+1200
2
0		-0.26295-0.28279-0.26945
Gil Vicente FC
Pacos		21.1%
53.3%		25.6%
+146
+217
+140
+210
1
2		-1.18293-1.18185-0.62890
Portimonense
Boavista		27.1%
42.9%		30.0%
+349
+100
+285
+105
2
4		-0.71857-0.76718-0.84614
Benfica
Pacos		56.5%
20.1%		23.4%
-510
+1801
-520
+1500
2
0		-0.20116-0.22620-0.57105
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+305
+116
+305
+105
0
0		-1.17435-1.19826-1.24834
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-335
+904
-320
+950
1
0		-0.31798-0.32021-0.46380
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
-381
+1186
-400
+1100
3
0		-0.26948-0.27194-0.42682
Braga
Pacos		55.2%
21.4%		23.4%
-236
+692
-250
+720
2
1		-0.39386-0.38649-0.59375
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+211
+158
+205
+150
1
2		-0.97501-0.96551-1.48598
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).