Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Games for Jun 8, 2025
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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+580
-215
+550
-220
0
5		-0.42127-0.42318-0.83667
Famalicao
SC Farense		42.6%
30.7%		26.8%
+155
+200
+160
+190
1
1		-1.17834-1.18215-1.31849
Moreirense
Braga		12.3%
69.2%		18.5%
+565
-210
+610
-225
0
1		-0.43827-0.41703-0.36823
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+1550
-700
+1600
-725
0
3		-0.18223-0.17678-0.28378
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1375
-485
+1350
-500
0
0		-1.93427-1.95878-1.87145
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+116
+252
+120
+240
0
1		-1.30302-1.27418-1.48598
Porto
SC Farense		81.4%
5.9%		12.7%
-280
+800
-335
+925
3
1		-0.33799-0.30953-0.20626
Famalicao
Moreirense		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+210
+150
+220
+140
0
1		-0.95555-0.92591-0.84828
Portimonense
Boavista		27.1%
42.9%		30.0%
+320
-105
+295
+100
4
1		-1.47046-1.42412-1.30549
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		36.4%
32.4%		31.2%
+180
+160
+180
+155
2
0		-1.07790-1.08063-1.01129
Moreirense
Porto		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+800
-275
+685
-275
0
5		-0.33771-0.36010-0.24193
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1700
-825
+1750
-850
0
2		-0.16222-0.16386-0.27409
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
-110
+300
-120
+320
2
1		-0.68631-0.65857-0.41960
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+318
-125
+330
-130
0
2		-0.63160-0.62023-0.56396
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1250
-480
+1500
-625
1
4		-0.21330-0.19679-0.38505
SC Farense
Portimonense		31.9%
37.7%		30.4%
+175
+162
+165
+165
0
1		-1.00608-1.02223-0.97530
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).