Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
+100
+310
+100
+300
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-110
u2¼-109

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+200
+145
+195
+155
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-122
u2+104

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+1550
-497
+1400
-500
1
4		-0.22354-0.23256-0.20038
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+351
-112
+330
-120
2
2		-1.31442-1.34542-1.28801
Boavista
Braga		8.8%
75.6%		15.6%
+943
-318
+870
-325
0
1		-0.30500-0.31669-0.28020
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.3%
34.2%		30.5%
+282
+128
+345
-110
1
0		-1.34831-1.54318-1.04109
Santa Clara
Portimonense		40.6%
29.1%		30.3%
+285
+121
+275
+115
0
0		-1.18322-1.19548-1.19363
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+216
+150
+205
+145
0
1		-0.93560-0.94348-0.99552
Sporting CP
Maritimo		67.1%
12.7%		20.3%
-262
+849
-275
+800
0
1		-2.28131-2.24460-2.06743
Rio Ave
Vitoria		23.0%
50.2%		26.7%
+307
+112
+280
+110
0
0		-1.21416-1.21372-1.31905
Portimonense
Benfica		6.9%
78.6%		14.4%
+1767
-588
+1700
-625
0
1		-0.18113-0.19898-0.24026
Braga
Santa Clara		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%


4
0
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-169
+573
-165
+490
2
1		-0.49438-0.52118-0.40115
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+2352
-998
+2000
-1050
1
3		-0.12792-0.14126-0.28378
Braga
Portimonense		72.6%
10.1%		17.3%
+111
+260
-110
+290
2
1		-0.77577-0.69589-0.32037
Maritimo
Vitoria		18.1%
57.6%		24.2%
+309
+112
+315
-105
0
1		-0.76778-0.71943-0.55097
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-387
+1283
-400
+1200
4
1		-0.26027-0.27273-0.24567
Famalicao
Maritimo		34.7%
36.9%		28.4%
+179
+177
+170
+170
0
0		-1.19677-1.21503-1.25931
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).