Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 24 days ago

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Games for Jun 11, 2025

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/18/2023 08:15 PM	Porto Sporting CP	44.2% 28.8%	27.0%	+234 +133 +230 +125	0 2	-0.86581-0.86022	-1.24337
12/17/2023 08:30 PM	Benfica Braga	34.4% 39.1%	26.5%	+130 +189 +125 +200	1 0	-0.87266-0.86138	-1.06740
12/17/2023 03:30 PM	Portimonense Moreirense	21.0% 52.1%	26.9%	+434 -138 +400 -145	2 5	-0.57151-0.57481	-0.65220
12/16/2023 08:30 PM	Vitoria Boavista	52.4% 21.5%	26.1%	+130 +242 +110 +250	1 1	-1.22370-1.28884	-1.34331
12/11/2023 08:15 PM	Moreirense Gil Vicente FC	37.6% 32.3%	30.1%	+125 +233 +120 +225	1 1	-1.26819-1.28913	-1.19945
12/09/2023 06:00 PM	Sporting CP Vitoria	50.2% 24.0%	25.8%	-140 +400 -150 +390	2 3	-1.63985-1.63897	-1.42578
12/09/2023 03:30 PM	Famalicao Portimonense	42.7% 29.6%	27.7%	+182 +155 +185 +150	1 1	-1.25323-1.25716	-1.28287
12/08/2023 06:00 PM	SC Farense Benfica	7.0% 79.4%	13.6%	+1475 -550 +1425 -635	1 1	-2.15650-2.14892	-1.99760
11/12/2023 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Benfica	32.9% 39.5%	27.6%	+187 +160 +165 +160	1 2	-0.98918-1.00605	-0.92925
11/12/2023 03:30 PM	SC Farense Boavista	28.2% 43.1%	28.7%	+280 -105 +270 +100	3 1	-1.37960-1.35899	-1.26634
11/12/2023 03:30 PM	Rio Ave Gil Vicente FC	38.9% 30.7%	30.4%	+245 +122 +260 +110	1 1	-1.26181-1.26012	-1.19069
11/11/2023 08:30 PM	Porto Vitoria	62.9% 15.7%	21.4%	-140 +405 -140 +390	2 1	-0.57927-0.58834	-0.46380
11/05/2023 06:00 PM	Boavista Rio Ave	23.2% 48.8%	27.9%	+170 +163 +165 +165	0 2	-1.01074-1.02641	-0.71654
11/05/2023 03:30 PM	Vitoria Moreirense	43.7% 28.1%	28.1%	+150 +190 +155 +190	0 1	-1.11410-1.11301	-1.26844
11/04/2023 08:30 PM	Portimonense Braga	7.3% 78.2%	14.5%	+1160 -435 +925 -410	1 6	-0.23685-0.26774	-0.24590
11/04/2023 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Famalicao	28.2% 45.1%	26.7%	+257 +115 +275 +100	1 3	-0.80406-0.74421	-0.79718

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).