Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 1, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Vitoria 		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-217
+590
-210
+560
1.57
1.02		2.59
o2½+102
u2½-120

Games for Oct 31, 2025
Games for Nov 2, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Sporting CP		8.2%
75.8%		16.0%
+1800
-725
+1700
-650
1
6		-0.17712-0.19309-0.27693
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+600
-240
+600
-235
1
2		-0.39591-0.40386-0.29077
Rio Ave
SC Farense		45.2%
26.5%		28.3%
+185
+177
+175
+175
1
1		-1.15414-1.18006-1.26277
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+295
+105
+280
+105
0
1		-0.75485-0.76613-0.56365
Moreirense
Boavista		38.9%
30.9%		30.1%
+145
+229
+145
+225
0
1		-1.23533-1.22666-1.17296
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-128
+342
-130
+350
0
0		-1.38454-1.38438-1.48625
Porto
Portimonense		80.5%
5.9%		13.6%
-475
+1300
-400
+1050
3
0		-0.24002-0.27278-0.21740
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+260
+120
+280
+110
1
1		-1.19600-1.21372-1.32652
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+201
+135
+195
+140
0
5		-0.90093-0.92402-0.60897
SC Farense
Sporting CP		6.9%
79.1%		14.0%
+1750
-725
+2250
-1100
2
3		-0.16823-0.13592-0.23444
Rio Ave
Moreirense		32.6%
36.8%		30.5%
+235
+140
+260
+130
0
0		-1.14599-1.13206-1.18662
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-135
+390
-140
+375
4
0		-0.59517-0.58805-0.36807
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-460
+1450
-425
+1200
3
3		-1.86659-1.85745-1.46833
Portimonense
Benfica		6.9%
78.6%		14.4%
+2400
-933
+2175
-1100
0
4		-0.15074-0.13726-0.24026
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-215
+615
-225
+625
1
1		-1.54778-1.55519-1.89986
Moreirense
SC Farense		43.8%
28.0%		28.2%
+180
+174
+170
+180
1
0		-1.07840-1.04214-0.82567
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.88583 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86074 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.91337
-0.02754
-0.05263

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).