Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-103
+310
+100
+300
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-110
u2¼-109

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+145
+205
+195
+155
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-121
u2+105

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+223
+146
+195
+160
0
1		-0.93029-1.00570-0.71654
Vitoria
Sporting CP		18.1%
58.8%		23.0%
+680
-231
+700
-250
0
3		-0.39065-0.38509-0.53020
Pacos
Porto		9.0%
74.8%		16.2%
+2598
-823
+2250
-900
0
4		-0.14527-0.15478-0.29081
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		26.1%
44.7%		29.3%
+258
+126
+230
+120
2
1		-1.29117-1.24434-1.34492
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+284
+149
+215
+145
2
3		-0.87671-0.94317-0.56365
Portimonense
Rio Ave		19.8%
53.2%		27.0%
+237
+147
+220
+135
0
1		-0.91068-0.90372-0.63027
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+269
+126
+275
+115
2
3		-0.84485-0.81353-0.50005
Pacos
Famalicao		41.1%
31.8%		27.1%
+400
-110
+390
-125
1
2		-0.66355-0.64014-1.14432
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+221
+141
+215
+130
1
0		-1.19092-1.19690-1.52450
Maritimo
Boavista		33.6%
35.2%		31.2%
+388
-109
+375
-130
1
1		-1.28111-1.33306-1.16504
Vitoria
Pacos		37.2%
33.6%		29.1%
+128
+257
+120
+240
1
0		-0.84749-0.83884-0.98779
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1602
-500
+1500
-610
2
4		-0.19834-0.20125-0.38505
Porto
Portimonense		80.5%
5.9%		13.6%
-233
+822
-280
+775
2
0		-0.34905-0.35525-0.21740
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-200
+638
-200
+575
2
1		-0.42118-0.45703-0.42975
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+298
+119
+295
+105
0
4		-0.79116-0.76992-0.76520
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		27.5%
43.1%		29.4%
+230
+151
+230
+140
0
1		-0.94199-0.92712-0.84278
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).