Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 25 days ago

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Games for Jun 13, 2025

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/30/2023 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Boavista	69.8% 11.2%	19.0%	-260 +750 -245 +625	2 0	-0.36647-0.39116	-0.35949
10/29/2023 03:30 PM	SC Farense Rio Ave	20.5% 53.8%	25.7%	+209 +145 +195 +145	4 3	-1.15461-1.13075	-1.58645
10/28/2023 07:30 PM	Braga Gil Vicente FC	68.2% 12.9%	18.9%	-124 +410 -165 +385	3 3	-1.49254-1.55391	-1.66395
10/08/2023 05:00 PM	Portimonense Porto	4.4% 84.1%	11.5%	+1300 -560 +1500 -650	0 1	-0.21209-0.19225	-0.17319
10/08/2023 02:30 PM	Vitoria Famalicao	47.9% 26.7%	25.4%	+170 +200 +170 +175	3 1	-1.02432-1.04344	-0.73614
10/07/2023 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Braga	13.2% 67.3%	19.5%	+909 -325 +800 -310	1 2	-1.85751-1.73744	-1.63312
10/06/2023 07:15 PM	Boavista Moreirense	24.6% 47.4%	28.0%	+310 -110 +295 -110	1 1	-1.33556-1.34442	-1.27211
10/01/2023 07:30 PM	Moreirense Rio Ave	29.8% 40.3%	29.9%	+174 +175 +180 +160	4 0	-1.04731-1.07790	-1.20929
09/30/2023 07:30 PM	Sporting CP SC Farense	73.8% 9.5%	16.8%	-275 +732 -260 +650	3 2	-0.34814-0.37577	-0.30438
09/30/2023 05:00 PM	Famalicao Boavista	37.7% 33.9%	28.4%	+197 +150 +195 +145	2 2	-1.23289-1.24289	-1.25878
09/29/2023 07:15 PM	Porto Benfica	45.3% 28.4%	26.3%	+330 -115 +305 -115	0 1	-0.65385-0.67647	-1.25857
09/25/2023 07:15 PM	Rio Ave Sporting CP	12.1% 68.0%	19.9%	+1695 -570 +1600 -625	0 2	-0.19603-0.19713	-0.38634
09/24/2023 07:30 PM	Boavista Braga	8.8% 75.6%	15.6%	+480 -195 +460 -190	1 4	-0.45282-0.47050	-0.28020
09/24/2023 05:00 PM	Benfica Portimonense	73.3% 9.5%	17.2%	-447 +1160 -475 +1025	3 1	-0.23728-0.24261	-0.31068
09/23/2023 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Porto	5.4% 82.0%	12.5%	+1143 -447 +1050 -420	1 2	-0.23684-0.26322	-0.19798
09/23/2023 02:30 PM	SC Farense Moreirense	21.7% 52.5%	25.7%	+237 +123 +220 +120	0 1	-0.83241-0.83986	-0.64367

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).