Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 26 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/17/2023 07:30 PM	Moreirense Sporting CP	11.3% 69.9%	18.8%	+1025 -400 +1000 -430	0 3	-0.26166-0.25824	-0.35838
09/17/2023 05:00 PM	Portimonense Vitoria	13.5% 64.8%	21.7%	+550 -180 +500 -175	2 1	-1.90879-1.84049	-2.00107
09/16/2023 05:00 PM	Braga SC Farense	73.4% 10.3%	16.4%	-135 +368 -145 +355	1 3	-1.56974-1.56638	-2.27770
09/16/2023 02:30 PM	Famalicao Rio Ave	28.6% 44.3%	27.0%	+190 +166 +200 +150	1 1	-1.20241-1.19696	-1.30815
09/09/2023 05:00 PM	Braga Moreirense	61.5% 16.9%	21.6%	-104 +305 +100 +265	3 2	-0.69545-0.74360	-0.48591
09/03/2023 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Braga	34.7% 38.0%	27.3%	+110 +231 +110 +230	1 1	-1.37559-1.35662	-1.29986
09/02/2023 07:30 PM	Vitoria Benfica	18.6% 58.9%	22.5%	+950 -375 +1000 -400	0 4	-0.27653-0.27279	-0.52974
09/02/2023 05:00 PM	SC Farense Famalicao	23.8% 51.7%	24.5%	+221 +130 +275 +105	0 1	-0.88107-0.76947	-0.66037
08/28/2023 07:15 PM	Porto Rio Ave	71.3% 10.4%	18.3%	-237 +720 -210 +600	2 1	-0.39374-0.43841	-0.33864
08/27/2023 07:30 PM	Famalicao Sporting CP	10.1% 73.9%	16.0%	+1050 -420 +1050 -425	0 1	-0.25981-0.26042	-0.30213
08/26/2023 07:30 PM	Benfica Gil Vicente FC	69.0% 12.1%	18.9%	-345 +940 -350 +825	3 2	-0.28928-0.30254	-0.37154
08/21/2023 07:15 PM	Moreirense Famalicao	34.4% 37.6%	28.0%	+218 +130 +215 +130	0 0	-1.26624-1.25846	-1.27293
08/20/2023 05:00 PM	SC Farense Porto	4.4% 85.0%	10.6%	+1600 -550 +1550 -600	1 2	-0.20464-0.20397	-0.16248
08/19/2023 07:30 PM	Boavista Portimonense	34.8% 33.4%	31.8%	+140 +226 +150 +205	4 1	-0.90609-0.96551	-1.05656
08/19/2023 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Vitoria	17.1% 59.5%	23.4%	+275 +115 +265 +110	1 2	-0.79969-0.79376	-0.51919
08/14/2023 07:45 PM	Benfica Boavista	69.9% 11.4%	18.6%	-300 +950 -330 +875	2 3	-2.37645-2.32780	-2.16814

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).