Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-104
+310
+100
+300
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-110
u2¼-110

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+185
+195
+155
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-105
u2-112

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-309
+900
-330
+850
0
0		-1.76949-1.77278-1.37563
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+310
-108
+330
-125
1
4		-0.67869-0.63779-0.56396
Gil Vicente FC
Sporting CP		8.6%
74.9%		16.4%
+959
-315
+875
-330
1
3		-0.30331-0.31522-0.28844
Maritimo
Benfica		9.4%
73.9%		16.7%
+2334
-847
+2100
-900
0
5		-0.14212-0.15483-0.30228
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-230
+693
-240
+675
1
2		-2.10941-2.09867-2.18961
Pacos
Santa Clara		40.2%
30.7%		29.1%
+426
-116
+390
-120
1
1		-1.22792-1.24514-1.23529
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%
+283
+107
+275
+105
2
2		-1.28634-1.27122-1.19069
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-173
+525
-180
+510
3
2		-0.48475-0.49127-0.52168
Gil Vicente FC
Maritimo		29.9%
40.1%		30.0%
+174
+178
+170
+170
2
1		-1.03440-1.04512-1.20892
Portimonense
Sporting CP		6.8%
78.2%		15.0%
+841
-308
+800
-325
0
4		-0.30703-0.31680-0.24604
Benfica
Famalicao		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-238
+743
-240
+650
1
0		-0.37212-0.39899-0.40066
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+317
+109
+300
+100
0
1		-0.75294-0.74482-0.59283
Pacos
Boavista		46.0%
26.0%		28.0%
+345
-102
+345
-110
0
1		-0.70680-0.69689-1.34584
Famalicao
Portimonense		42.7%
29.6%		27.7%
+205
+155
+195
+150
0
1		-0.95532-0.96648-1.21831
Maritimo
Santa Clara		29.2%
41.1%		29.7%
+302
+115
+310
+100
1
2		-0.77690-0.74345-0.88992
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-330
+1007
-340
+950
2
0		-0.29737-0.30961-0.25319
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).