Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC 		34.6%
34.5%		30.8%
+275
+135
+260
+130
1.00
1.00		2.00
o2+109
u2-125

Games for Nov 2, 2025
Games for Nov 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		36.4%
32.4%		31.2%
+180
+160
+180
+155
2
0		-1.07790-1.08063-1.01129
Moreirense
Porto		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+800
-275
+685
-275
0
5		-0.33771-0.36010-0.24193
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1700
-825
+1750
-850
0
2		-0.16222-0.16386-0.27409
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
-110
+300
-120
+320
2
1		-0.68631-0.65857-0.41960
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+318
-125
+330
-130
0
2		-0.63160-0.62023-0.56396
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1250
-480
+1500
-625
1
4		-0.21330-0.19679-0.38505
SC Farense
Portimonense		31.9%
37.7%		30.4%
+175
+162
+165
+165
0
1		-1.00608-1.02223-0.97530
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+234
+133
+230
+125
0
2		-0.86581-0.86022-1.24337
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+130
+189
+125
+200
1
0		-0.87266-0.86138-1.06740
Portimonense
Moreirense		21.0%
52.1%		26.9%
+434
-138
+400
-145
2
5		-0.57151-0.57481-0.65220
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
+130
+242
+110
+250
1
1		-1.22370-1.28884-1.34331
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+125
+233
+120
+225
1
1		-1.26819-1.28913-1.19945
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-140
+400
-150
+390
2
3		-1.63985-1.63897-1.42578
Famalicao
Portimonense		42.7%
29.6%		27.7%
+182
+155
+185
+150
1
1		-1.25323-1.25716-1.28287
SC Farense
Benfica		7.0%
79.4%		13.6%
+1475
-550
+1425
-635
1
1		-2.15650-2.14892-1.99760
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+187
+160
+165
+160
1
2		-0.98918-1.00605-0.92925
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.48461 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.46291 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56396
-0.07935
-0.10105

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).