Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+151
+188

1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼-102
u2¼-118

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-240
+700

1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-122
u2¼+102

Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+187
+160
+165
+160
1
2		-0.98918-1.00605-0.92925
SC Farense
Boavista		28.2%
43.1%		28.7%
+280
-105
+270
+100
3
1		-1.37960-1.35899-1.26634
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		38.9%
30.7%		30.4%
+245
+122
+260
+110
1
1		-1.26181-1.26012-1.19069
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-140
+405
-140
+390
2
1		-0.57927-0.58834-0.46380
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+170
+163
+165
+165
0
2		-1.01074-1.02641-0.71654
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+150
+190
+155
+190
0
1		-1.11410-1.11301-1.26844
Portimonense
Braga		7.3%
78.2%		14.5%
+1160
-435
+925
-410
1
6		-0.23685-0.26774-0.24590
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+257
+115
+275
+100
1
3		-0.80406-0.74421-0.79718
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-260
+750
-245
+625
2
0		-0.36647-0.39116-0.35949
SC Farense
Rio Ave		20.5%
53.8%		25.7%
+209
+145
+195
+145
4
3		-1.15461-1.13075-1.58645
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		68.2%
12.9%		18.9%
-124
+410
-165
+385
3
3		-1.49254-1.55391-1.66395
Portimonense
Porto		4.4%
84.1%		11.5%
+1300
-560
+1500
-650
0
1		-0.21209-0.19225-0.17319
Vitoria
Famalicao		47.9%
26.7%		25.4%
+170
+200
+170
+175
3
1		-1.02432-1.04344-0.73614
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+909
-325
+800
-310
1
2		-1.85751-1.73744-1.63312
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+310
-110
+295
-110
1
1		-1.33556-1.34442-1.27211
Moreirense
Rio Ave		29.8%
40.3%		29.9%
+174
+175
+180
+160
4
0		-1.04731-1.07790-1.20929
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.73006 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.79118 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.06427
-0.33421
-0.27309

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).