Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-105
+310
-110
+325
1.93
0.84		2.77
o2¼-110
u2¼-108

Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+189
+165
+205
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2-101
u2-112

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+826
-263
+775
-275
0
1		-0.34427-0.36057-0.55351
Pacos
Benfica		14.8%
64.8%		20.4%
+3588
-1330
+3600
-1400
2
3		-0.10784-0.11900-0.43417
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-312
+1037
-315
+950
1
3		-2.45644-2.40053-2.26068
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+295
+110
+260
+115
0
1		-0.76856-0.81482-0.90296
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-260
+866
-320
+875
3
0		-0.35281-0.32040-0.35763
Portimonense
Maritimo		24.7%
46.1%		29.1%
+161
+200
+155
+190
1
0		-0.97686-0.98438-1.39691
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+243
+127
+245
+115
0
0		-1.26005-1.27168-1.25896
Vitoria
Portimonense		57.0%
18.2%		24.8%
+219
+150
+185
+160
1
2		-0.93818-1.00709-1.70419
Maritimo
Braga		10.0%
73.2%		16.8%
+1011
-355
+1000
-380
0
5		-0.27106-0.28169-0.31222
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+311
+105
+300
-105
0
3		-0.73453-0.71980-0.63168
Portimonense
Pacos		16.9%
59.1%		24.0%
+194
+174
+195
+155
3
0		-1.09584-1.12927-1.77922
Santa Clara
Boavista		35.9%
33.1%		30.9%
+243
+150
+215
+150
1
2		-0.93872-0.96582-1.10422
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+1150
-416
+1500
-500
0
3		-0.27379-0.23309-0.38634
Pacos
Gil Vicente FC		44.6%
27.3%		28.1%
+314
+103
+310
-105
0
1		-0.73176-0.71803-1.29876
Boavista
Portimonense		34.8%
33.4%		31.8%
+240
+139
+245
+125
1
0		-1.24285-1.28880-1.05656
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
-103
+308
-110
+305
3
3		-1.31278-1.31800-1.29986
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).