Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 27 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/14/2023 05:45 PM	Porto Moreirense	73.1% 9.7%	17.2%	-275 +700 -275 +700	2 1	-0.35956-0.35782	-0.31375
08/12/2023 02:30 PM	Portimonense Gil Vicente FC	26.1% 44.7%	29.3%	+335 -120 +335 -115	0 5	-0.65427-0.67495	-0.80573
08/11/2023 07:15 PM	Famalicao Braga	11.0% 73.1%	15.9%	+475 -185 +565 -220	2 1	-1.79830-1.94400	-2.21174
05/27/2023 07:30 PM	Pacos Braga	15.8% 63.8%	20.4%	+875 -382 +875 -400	0 3	-0.26938-0.27366	-0.44998
05/27/2023 05:00 PM	Vitoria Porto	11.4% 70.3%	18.3%	+1299 -540 +1185 -500	0 3	-0.20402-0.23208	-0.35288
05/27/2023 05:00 PM	Santa Clara Benfica	10.3% 72.2%	17.4%	+3199 -1500 +2300 -1720	0 3	-0.08578-0.10853	-0.32537
05/26/2023 06:00 PM	Famalicao Rio Ave	28.6% 44.3%	27.0%	+125 +229 +130 +220	2 2	-1.28630-1.24299	-1.30815
05/21/2023 07:30 PM	Benfica Sporting CP	31.7% 41.0%	27.3%	+140 +200 +135 +200	2 2	-1.30225-1.28591	-1.29825
05/21/2023 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Pacos	27.6% 43.7%	28.7%	+204 +152 +200 +140	1 3	-0.94567-0.92712	-0.82819
05/21/2023 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Vitoria	17.1% 59.5%	23.4%	+360 -136 +340 -135	0 1	-0.58080-0.60475	-0.51919
05/20/2023 07:30 PM	Porto Famalicao	76.9% 8.6%	14.5%	-215 +630 -225 +620	4 2	-0.40285-0.41977	-0.26276
05/20/2023 05:00 PM	Braga Boavista	69.2% 12.2%	18.6%	-150 +405 -165 +410	1 1	-1.49593-1.50864	-1.68110
05/20/2023 02:30 PM	Portimonense Santa Clara	23.0% 49.0%	28.0%	+364 -125 +255 +110	0 1	-0.61362-0.79264	-0.71378
05/14/2023 05:00 PM	Santa Clara Braga	11.0% 71.6%	17.4%	+1160 -362 +1150 -415	3 5	-0.26659-0.26706	-0.33440
05/14/2023 02:30 PM	Vitoria Rio Ave	41.6% 29.4%	29.0%	+128 +250 +140 +210	1 0	-0.84586-0.92591	-0.87724
05/13/2023 07:30 PM	Maritimo Sporting CP	9.2% 73.6%	17.2%	+1720 -625 +1500 -600	1 2	-0.17427-0.20577	-0.30715

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).