Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+185
+165
+205
1.11
1.36		2.47
o2+100
u2-112

Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Porto
Vitoria 		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-104
+310
-110
+325
2.77
o2¼-108
u2¼-110

1st H
32:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Maritimo
Porto		5.8%
81.0%		13.1%
+1766
-588
+1550
-600
1
5		-0.18357-0.20397-0.21030
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+172
+160
+165
+150
0
5		-0.97923-0.96635-0.51919
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
+127
+215
+125
+205
2
3		-1.17386-1.16402-1.87849
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		10.1%
71.9%		17.9%
+928
-333
+950
-360
0
4		-0.29010-0.29558-0.32960
Portimonense
Maritimo		24.7%
46.1%		29.1%
+207
+137
+230
+120
1
0		-1.14907-1.24434-1.39691
Boavista
Tondela		33.3%
35.3%		31.3%
+397
-133
+400
-140
2
2		-1.38127-1.37054-1.16047
Benfica
Pacos		56.5%
20.1%		23.4%
-110
+302
-185
+455
2
0		-0.67329-0.48475-0.57105
Famalicao
Belenenses		39.0%
32.0%		28.9%
+185
+160
+200
+145
3
2		-1.08960-1.15119-0.94089
Pacos
Santa Clara		40.2%
30.7%		29.1%
+390
-128
+340
-120
0
2		-0.60488-0.65541-1.18189
Tondela
Gil Vicente FC		27.6%
42.9%		29.5%
+367
-125
+345
-125
0
3		-0.61419-0.63709-0.84623
Sporting CP
Portimonense		72.9%
9.3%		17.7%
-259
+711
-300
+800
3
2		-0.35632-0.33798-0.31596
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+141
+199
+135
+195
1
0		-0.90567-0.90342-0.79118
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
+132
+252
+120
+225
1
1		-1.20551-1.28913-1.34331
Tondela
Pacos		18.1%
57.5%		24.4%
+150
+219
+135
+220
1
1		-1.19962-1.21244-1.40993
Gil Vicente FC
Sporting CP		8.6%
74.9%		16.4%
+746
-252
+760
-290
1
4		-0.35605-0.34540-0.28844
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+231
+141
+220
+140
2
1		-1.22608-1.21362-1.40344
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59609 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.57433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34308
0.25301
0.23125

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).