Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Famalicao
Moreirense 		30.2%
42.8%		26.9%
+165
+185
+175
+195
2.47
o2+100
u2-112

1st H
39:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+231
+141
+220
+140
2
1		-1.22608-1.21362-1.40344
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+394
-127
+410
-135
1
1		-1.34792-1.31789-1.38910
Braga
Belenenses		69.6%
11.5%		18.9%
-105
+332
-115
+335
1
0		-0.69643-0.67495-0.36281
Benfica
Maritimo		67.3%
12.9%		19.7%
-163
+455
-165
+460
1
0		-0.50988-0.52373-0.39559
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-225
+757
-240
+715
3
0		-0.39704-0.39787-0.35949
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
-129
+390
-130
+360
0
1		-1.61737-1.57417-1.30564
Vitoria
Tondela		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+119
+253
-110
+295
1
1		-1.27393-1.34442-1.38573
Pacos
Gil Vicente FC		44.6%
27.3%		28.1%
+400
-140
+430
-145
1
1		-1.37650-1.34780-1.27040
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+855
-273
+780
-300
0
0		-1.68190-1.71869-1.85406
Maritimo
Santa Clara		29.2%
41.1%		29.7%
+365
-103
+375
-110
2
2		-1.21480-1.19789-1.21375
Moreirense
Portimonense		43.6%
27.0%		29.4%
+224
+142
+210
+140
0
1		-0.90745-0.92591-1.31033
Benfica
Sporting CP		31.7%
41.0%		27.3%
+298
-106
+295
-110
2
0		-1.40650-1.42341-1.14775
Portimonense
Porto		4.4%
84.1%		11.5%
+3049
-900
+2000
-800
0
7		-0.12705-0.16733-0.17319
Boavista
Maritimo		28.6%
41.5%		30.0%
+266
+135
+235
+145
0
4		-0.86657-0.94631-0.88037
Tondela
Moreirense		22.4%
50.4%		27.2%
+252
+127
+240
+120
0
2		-0.83919-0.83884-0.68571
Pacos
Vitoria		26.8%
45.9%		27.3%
+415
-119
+380
-135
0
4		-0.61487-0.60602-0.77901
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.72892 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.69848 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.46380
0.26512
0.23468

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).