Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pacos
Vitoria		26.8%
45.9%		27.3%
+415
-119
+380
-135
0
4		-0.61487-0.60602-0.77901
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+262
+116
+215
+135
2
2		-1.27740-1.22809-1.32114
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-259
+697
-285
+725
1
0		-0.35580-0.35140-0.46380
Famalicao
Portimonense		42.7%
29.6%		27.7%
+183
+187
+160
+200
0
1		-1.08669-1.14863-1.21831
Sporting CP
Tondela		72.0%
10.0%		18.0%
-315
+1000
-350
+1000
3
1		-0.30507-0.30059-0.32866
Belenenses
Benfica		7.9%
76.0%		16.1%
+986
-325
+850
-350
1
3		-0.29420-0.29982-0.27423
Maritimo
Pacos		22.3%
51.4%		26.3%
+200
+178
+170
+190
0
2		-1.04316-1.11209-0.66547
Moreirense
Gil Vicente FC		37.6%
32.3%		30.1%
+440
-133
+380
-135
2
1		-1.70948-1.62035-0.97883
Santa Clara
Porto		6.4%
79.9%		13.7%
+1657
-544
+1400
-525
0
3		-0.20261-0.22269-0.22394
Pacos
Sporting CP		14.5%
64.8%		20.7%
+2060
-625
+1500
-550
0
2		-0.18140-0.21729-0.43339
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+135
+229
+115
+240
1
0		-0.87859-0.81744-0.82739
Tondela
Maritimo		26.3%
44.4%		29.3%
+272
+127
+280
+105
3
1		-1.33249-1.38758-1.33701
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+421
-120
+305
+105
2
1		-1.68077-1.44958-1.31215
Portimonense
Belenenses		27.9%
40.1%		31.9%
+145
+231
+125
+245
0
2		-1.22237-1.28880-0.91267
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+170
+176
+135
+200
2
3		-1.03030-1.15024-0.93877
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-271
+840
-265
+775
1
0		-0.35220-0.36976-0.24567
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93089 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.90477 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88777
0.04312
0.01700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).