Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+139
+205
+145
+205
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼-102
u2¼-118

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-240
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-122
u2¼+102

Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Pacos		27.6%
43.7%		28.7%
+204
+152
+200
+140
1
3		-0.94567-0.92712-0.82819
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+360
-136
+340
-135
0
1		-0.58080-0.60475-0.51919
Porto
Famalicao		76.9%
8.6%		14.5%
-215
+630
-225
+620
4
2		-0.40285-0.41977-0.26276
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-150
+405
-165
+410
1
1		-1.49593-1.50864-1.68110
Portimonense
Santa Clara		23.0%
49.0%		28.0%
+364
-125
+255
+110
0
1		-0.61362-0.79264-0.71378
Santa Clara
Braga		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+1160
-362
+1150
-415
3
5		-0.26659-0.26706-0.33440
Vitoria
Rio Ave		41.6%
29.4%		29.0%
+128
+250
+140
+210
1
0		-0.84586-0.92591-0.87724
Maritimo
Sporting CP		9.2%
73.6%		17.2%
+1720
-625
+1500
-600
1
2		-0.17427-0.20577-0.30715
Benfica
Portimonense		73.3%
9.5%		17.2%
-569
+1600
-485
+1200
5
1		-0.18854-0.23712-0.31068
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.0%		30.1%
+189
+165
+185
+145
1
3		-0.99533-0.94788-0.91712
Sporting CP
Pacos		56.7%
19.6%		23.7%
-330
+972
-340
+875
4
0		-0.29252-0.30878-0.56770
Rio Ave
Maritimo		37.1%
31.9%		31.0%
+351
-105
+275
+105
2
2		-1.25141-1.26058-1.17147
Braga
Benfica		31.2%
42.9%		25.9%
+526
-182
+490
-185
0
1		-0.46781-0.48204-0.84714
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		28.0%
42.9%		29.1%
+206
+140
+165
+165
2
3		-0.90266-1.02641-0.84560
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+1583
-500
+1400
-500
1
2		-0.21594-0.22429-0.30213
Boavista
Porto		5.2%
82.5%		12.3%
+1650
-500
+1500
-600
0
1		-0.20066-0.20577-0.19288
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.73006 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.79118 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.06427
-0.33421
-0.27309

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).