Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 29 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/19/2023 03:30 PM	Famalicao Santa Clara	32.7% 39.6%	27.7%	+145 +226 +160 +200	3 1	-0.93902-1.00550	-1.11862
02/18/2023 08:30 PM	Rio Ave Porto	7.6% 77.0%	15.4%	+1463 -463 +1400 -525	0 1	-0.22436-0.22078	-0.26130
02/18/2023 06:00 PM	Maritimo Portimonense	37.8% 30.9%	31.2%	+214 +150 +210 +140	1 2	-0.94305-0.92591	-1.17299
02/12/2023 08:30 PM	Braga Maritimo	66.3% 13.8%	19.9%	-111 +330 -120 +330	2 1	-0.67082-0.65682	-0.41075
02/12/2023 06:00 PM	Porto Sporting CP	44.2% 28.8%	27.0%	+197 +165 +190 +160	2 1	-1.11572-1.11541	-0.81665
02/12/2023 03:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Famalicao	28.2% 45.1%	26.7%	+282 +112 +265 +105	1 0	-1.36665-1.34508	-1.26429
02/11/2023 08:30 PM	Portimonense Vitoria	13.5% 64.8%	21.7%	+348 -103 +350 -115	0 1	-0.69465-0.67566	-0.43453
02/06/2023 09:15 PM	Sporting CP Rio Ave	60.4% 16.5%	23.0%	-267 +911 -265 +850	1 0	-0.34817-0.36769	-0.50345
02/06/2023 07:00 PM	Pacos Portimonense	50.8% 22.3%	26.9%	+242 +138 +230 +135	0 1	-0.89377-0.90429	-1.50076
02/05/2023 03:30 PM	Famalicao Braga	11.0% 73.1%	15.9%	+571 -180 +575 -190	1 4	-0.46973-0.47188	-0.31292
02/04/2023 03:30 PM	Boavista Santa Clara	26.7% 44.3%	29.0%	+187 +191 +175 +185	2 2	-1.12371-1.13392	-1.23729
02/01/2023 09:15 PM	Braga Sporting CP	30.5% 43.3%	26.2%	+330 -109 +325 -115	0 5	-0.67505-0.67627	-0.83667
02/01/2023 07:00 PM	Porto Maritimo	76.4% 7.9%	15.7%	-370 +1278 -380 +1200	2 0	-0.26295-0.28279	-0.26945
01/31/2023 07:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Pacos	21.1% 53.3%	25.6%	+146 +217 +140 +210	1 2	-1.18293-1.18185	-0.62890
01/29/2023 06:00 PM	Portimonense Boavista	27.1% 42.9%	30.0%	+349 +100 +285 +105	2 4	-0.71857-0.76718	-0.84614
01/26/2023 08:15 PM	Benfica Pacos	56.5% 20.1%	23.4%	-510 +1801 -520 +1500	2 0	-0.20116-0.22620	-0.57105

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).