Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Portimonense		72.6%
10.1%		17.3%
-106
+331
-115
+340
2
1		-0.69003-0.67641-0.32037
Maritimo
Gil Vicente FC		32.5%
36.8%		30.6%
+432
-138
+410
-140
1
1		-1.35759-1.35681-1.18342
Moreirense
Pacos		26.4%
46.0%		27.5%
+254
+136
+235
+130
1
2		-0.87529-0.88242-0.77625
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-147
+415
-150
+400
3
1		-0.55396-0.55961-0.68983
Belenenses
Santa Clara		25.1%
45.1%		29.8%
+581
-180
+700
-225
0
0		-1.40605-1.49816-1.20992
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-230
+800
-225
+700
2
0		-0.38297-0.41899-0.46860
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+371
-129
+350
-125
1
0		-1.57745-1.55452-2.37645
Tondela
Porto		4.7%
83.8%		11.6%
+2841
-787
+2300
-950
0
4		-0.14134-0.15049-0.17720
Vitoria
Maritimo		49.1%
23.8%		27.0%
+175
+170
+165
+175
1
0		-1.05705-1.02666-0.71088
Boavista
Belenenses		31.8%
35.9%		32.3%
+117
+289
+110
+285
0
0		-1.21679-1.19942-1.13020
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+250
+128
+255
+120
0
0		-1.16600-1.19968-1.28591
Belenenses
Tondela		31.4%
36.2%		32.4%
+360
-109
+360
-120
1
1		-1.30752-1.30015-1.12720
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+190
+156
+175
+160
1
2		-0.96417-1.00550-0.56365
Porto
Pacos		68.3%
12.4%		19.2%
-309
+974
-340
+975
4
2		-0.31362-0.30750-0.38092
Maritimo
Moreirense		27.0%
44.2%		28.8%
+244
+135
+225
+135
1
0		-1.25727-1.22809-1.30859
Benfica
Portimonense		73.3%
9.5%		17.2%
-189
+547
-200
+550
2
1		-0.45260-0.45463-0.31068
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93089 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.90477 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88777
0.04312
0.01700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).