Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 29 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/22/2023 08:30 PM	Rio Ave Famalicao	35.7% 35.6%	28.7%	+305 +116 +305 +105	0 0	-1.17435-1.19826	-1.24834
01/21/2023 08:30 PM	Porto Vitoria	62.9% 15.7%	21.4%	-335 +904 -320 +950	1 0	-0.31798-0.32021	-0.46380
01/21/2023 06:00 PM	Benfica Santa Clara	65.3% 14.2%	20.5%	-381 +1186 -400 +1100	3 0	-0.26948-0.27194	-0.42682
01/21/2023 03:30 PM	Braga Pacos	55.2% 21.4%	23.4%	-236 +692 -250 +720	2 1	-0.39386-0.38649	-0.59375
01/16/2023 09:15 PM	Vitoria Gil Vicente FC	51.1% 22.6%	26.3%	+211 +158 +205 +150	1 2	-0.97501-0.96551	-1.48598
01/15/2023 08:30 PM	Famalicao Porto	6.2% 81.8%	12.0%	+1550 -497 +1400 -500	1 4	-0.22354-0.23256	-0.20038
01/15/2023 06:00 PM	Sporting CP Benfica	32.9% 39.5%	27.6%	+351 -112 +330 -120	2 2	-1.31442-1.34542	-1.28801
01/14/2023 08:30 PM	Boavista Braga	8.8% 75.6%	15.6%	+943 -318 +870 -325	0 1	-0.30500-0.31669	-0.28020
01/14/2023 06:00 PM	Pacos Rio Ave	35.3% 34.2%	30.5%	+282 +128 +345 -110	1 0	-1.34831-1.54318	-1.04109
01/13/2023 08:15 PM	Santa Clara Portimonense	40.6% 29.1%	30.3%	+285 +121 +275 +115	0 0	-1.18322-1.19548	-1.19363
01/08/2023 08:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Boavista	32.4% 37.0%	30.7%	+216 +150 +205 +145	0 1	-0.93560-0.94348	-0.99552
01/08/2023 06:00 PM	Sporting CP Maritimo	67.1% 12.7%	20.3%	-262 +849 -275 +800	0 1	-2.28131-2.24460	-2.06743
01/07/2023 06:00 PM	Rio Ave Vitoria	23.0% 50.2%	26.7%	+307 +112 +280 +110	0 0	-1.21416-1.21372	-1.31905
01/06/2023 07:00 PM	Portimonense Benfica	6.9% 78.6%	14.4%	+1767 -588 +1700 -625	0 1	-0.18113-0.19898	-0.24026
01/05/2023 08:15 PM	Braga Santa Clara	50.0% 50.0%	0.0%		4 0
11/13/2022 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Famalicao	67.0% 14.0%	19.0%	-169 +573 -165 +490	2 1	-0.49438-0.52118	-0.40115

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).