Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
+117
+290
+105
+275
1
1		-1.22670-1.26058-1.68110
Santa Clara
Braga		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+513
-158
+455
-160
0
0		-1.40393-1.41165-1.74675
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+951
-312
+850
-310
1
1		-1.79667-1.70876-2.07928
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+801
-297
+750
-310
0
3		-0.31811-0.33058-0.52974
Sporting CP
Maritimo		67.1%
12.7%		20.3%
-180
+613
-200
+625
1
1		-1.45060-1.45835-1.59692
Tondela
Famalicao		24.6%
49.8%		25.6%
+522
-165
+415
-145
1
2		-0.50848-0.57586-0.69681
Pacos
Belenenses		46.8%
24.5%		28.7%
+147
+232
+140
+210
2
0		-0.92357-0.92591-0.75824
Portimonense
Santa Clara		23.0%
49.0%		28.0%
+315
+106
+315
-105
1
1		-1.23354-1.25931-1.27193
Braga
Tondela		71.5%
10.8%		17.6%
-133
+399
-150
+400
1
0		-0.58415-0.55961-0.33511
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-307
+1013
-325
+950
1
0		-0.31154-0.31745-0.31375
Famalicao
Maritimo		34.7%
36.9%		28.4%
+188
+170
+185
+155
1
0		-1.07731-1.09679-1.05702
Belenenses
Gil Vicente FC		28.2%
40.9%		30.9%
+572
-176
+560
-190
0
2		-0.48044-0.47221-0.89504
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-221
+648
-255
+700
2
2		-1.59697-1.61898-1.68099
Vitoria
Belenenses		49.1%
24.8%		26.1%
+105
+298
+105
+280
0
1		-1.40181-1.38326-1.39485
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.9%
37.1%		28.0%
+308
+113
+265
+115
0
5		-0.78095-0.81577-0.99110
Boavista
Portimonense		34.6%
33.6%		31.8%
+226
+150
+210
+150
1
1		-1.19730-1.16437-1.14514
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93089 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.90477 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88777
0.04312
0.01700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).