Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Vitoria 		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+190
+160
+190
+160
0.98
1.82		2.80
o2¼-120
u2½-138

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Portimonense		73.3%
9.5%		17.2%
-447
+1160
-475
+1025
3
1		-0.23728-0.24261-0.31068
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1143
-447
+1050
-420
1
2		-0.23684-0.26322-0.19798
SC Farense
Moreirense		21.7%
52.5%		25.7%
+237
+123
+220
+120
0
1		-0.83241-0.83986-0.64367
Moreirense
Sporting CP		11.3%
69.9%		18.8%
+1025
-400
+1000
-430
0
3		-0.26166-0.25824-0.35838
Portimonense
Vitoria		13.5%
64.8%		21.7%
+550
-180
+500
-175
2
1		-1.90879-1.84049-2.00107
Braga
SC Farense		73.4%
10.3%		16.4%
-135
+368
-145
+355
1
3		-1.56974-1.56638-2.27770
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
+190
+166
+200
+150
1
1		-1.20241-1.19696-1.30815
Braga
Moreirense		61.5%
16.9%		21.6%
-104
+305
+100
+265
3
2		-0.69545-0.74360-0.48591
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
+110
+231
+110
+230
1
1		-1.37559-1.35662-1.29986
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+950
-375
+1000
-400
0
4		-0.27653-0.27279-0.52974
SC Farense
Famalicao		23.8%
51.7%		24.5%
+221
+130
+275
+105
0
1		-0.88107-0.76947-0.66037
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-237
+720
-210
+600
2
1		-0.39374-0.43841-0.33864
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+1050
-420
+1050
-425
0
1		-0.25981-0.26042-0.30213
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-345
+940
-350
+825
3
2		-0.28928-0.30254-0.37154
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.4%
37.6%		28.0%
+218
+130
+215
+130
0
0		-1.26624-1.25846-1.27293
SC Farense
Porto		4.4%
85.0%		10.6%
+1600
-550
+1550
-600
1
2		-0.20464-0.20397-0.16248
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).