Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 30 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/13/2022 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Benfica	8.8% 75.3%	15.9%	+2352 -998 +2000 -1050	1 3	-0.12792-0.14126	-0.28378
11/13/2022 06:00 PM	Braga Portimonense	72.6% 10.1%	17.3%	+111 +260 -110 +290	2 1	-0.77577-0.69589	-0.32037
11/13/2022 03:30 PM	Maritimo Vitoria	18.1% 57.6%	24.2%	+309 +112 +315 -105	0 1	-0.76778-0.71943	-0.55097
11/12/2022 08:30 PM	Porto Boavista	78.2% 7.0%	14.8%	-387 +1283 -400 +1200	4 1	-0.26027-0.27273	-0.24567
11/06/2022 06:00 PM	Famalicao Maritimo	34.7% 36.9%	28.4%	+179 +177 +170 +170	0 0	-1.19677-1.21503	-1.25931
11/06/2022 03:30 PM	Boavista Rio Ave	23.2% 48.8%	27.9%	+223 +146 +195 +160	0 1	-0.93029-1.00570	-0.71654
11/05/2022 08:30 PM	Vitoria Sporting CP	18.1% 58.8%	23.0%	+680 -231 +700 -250	0 3	-0.39065-0.38509	-0.53020
11/05/2022 06:00 PM	Pacos Porto	9.0% 74.8%	16.2%	+2598 -823 +2250 -900	0 4	-0.14527-0.15478	-0.29081
11/04/2022 08:15 PM	Portimonense Gil Vicente FC	26.1% 44.7%	29.3%	+258 +126 +230 +120	2 1	-1.29117-1.24434	-1.34492
10/31/2022 08:15 PM	Famalicao Vitoria	20.2% 56.9%	22.9%	+284 +149 +215 +145	2 3	-0.87671-0.94317	-0.56365
10/24/2022 07:15 PM	Portimonense Rio Ave	19.8% 53.2%	27.0%	+237 +147 +220 +135	0 1	-0.91068-0.90372	-0.63027
10/23/2022 07:30 PM	Boavista Vitoria	16.2% 60.6%	23.2%	+269 +126 +275 +115	2 3	-0.84485-0.81353	-0.50005
10/22/2022 02:30 PM	Pacos Famalicao	41.1% 31.8%	27.1%	+400 -110 +390 -125	1 2	-0.66355-0.64014	-1.14432
10/21/2022 07:15 PM	Benfica Porto	21.8% 54.4%	23.8%	+221 +141 +215 +130	1 0	-1.19092-1.19690	-1.52450
10/09/2022 02:30 PM	Maritimo Boavista	33.6% 35.2%	31.2%	+388 -109 +375 -130	1 1	-1.28111-1.33306	-1.16504
10/08/2022 07:30 PM	Vitoria Pacos	37.2% 33.6%	29.1%	+128 +257 +120 +240	1 0	-0.84749-0.83884	-0.98779

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).