Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Benfica		17.5%
66.9%		15.7%
+911
-294
+825
-325
1
2		-0.31281-0.31837-0.40266
Pacos
Braga		22.7%
58.0%		19.4%
+827
-255
+785
-265
1
2		-0.36149-0.36853-0.54531
Sporting CP
Porto		27.0%
48.8%		24.2%
+341
-108
+285
+105
2
2		-1.29015-1.24327-1.42072
Belenenses
Moreirense		26.9%
45.4%		27.7%
+412
-125
+450
-135
1
4		-0.62215-0.60349-0.78858
Benfica
Tondela		64.9%
16.7%		18.5%
-275
+750
-330
+810
3
1		-0.33774-0.31467-0.43295
Famalicao
Sporting CP		17.2%
66.4%		16.4%
+1000
-310
+950
-350
0
2		-0.31466-0.30315-0.40961
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		36.1%
36.0%		28.0%
+285
+105
+310
+100
2
2		-1.26457-1.22895-1.27364
Braga
Vitoria		45.8%
30.2%		24.1%
-105
+285
+110
+260
1
2		-1.39010-1.32791-1.19852
Portimonense
Pacos		22.3%
53.6%		24.1%
+220
+156
+220
+150
1
1		-1.15903-1.13202-1.42292
Sporting CP
Belenenses		62.8%
16.5%		20.7%
-385
+1250
-395
+1200
4
1		-0.26928-0.27776-0.46496
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		15.2%
67.8%		17.0%
+600
-220
+620
-230
2
1		-1.99033-2.02155-1.88453
Boavista
Santa Clara		29.8%
42.7%		27.5%
+310
+105
+300
+110
1
2		-0.76110-0.78955-0.85177
Maritimo
Porto		11.0%
73.8%		15.2%
+1400
-550
+1450
-600
1
2		-0.21218-0.20360-0.30403
Moreirense
Braga		19.2%
62.1%		18.7%
+725
-245
+750
-245
0
2		-0.38120-0.39109-0.47604
Tondela
Portimonense		34.0%
36.8%		29.1%
+240
+125
+240
+120
2
1		-1.25678-1.27418-1.07781
Famalicao
Porto		12.4%
74.6%		13.0%
+1187
-476
+1300
-510
1
3		-0.24098-0.22818-0.29291
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93089 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.90477 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88777
0.04312
0.01700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).