Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 30 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/08/2022 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Benfica	12.4% 68.0%	19.5%	+1602 -500 +1500 -610	2 4	-0.19834-0.20125	-0.38505
10/08/2022 05:00 PM	Porto Portimonense	80.5% 5.9%	13.6%	-233 +822 -280 +775	2 0	-0.34905-0.35525	-0.21740
10/08/2022 02:30 PM	Sporting CP Santa Clara	65.1% 13.9%	21.0%	-200 +638 -200 +575	2 1	-0.42118-0.45703	-0.42975
10/02/2022 07:30 PM	Boavista Famalicao	26.9% 46.5%	26.5%	+298 +119 +295 +105	0 4	-0.79116-0.76992	-0.76520
10/02/2022 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Rio Ave	27.5% 43.1%	29.4%	+230 +151 +230 +140	0 1	-0.94199-0.92712	-0.84278
10/01/2022 07:30 PM	Benfica Vitoria	50.0% 24.7%	25.3%	-309 +900 -330 +850	0 0	-1.76949-1.77278	-1.37563
09/30/2022 08:15 PM	Braga Porto	20.5% 56.9%	22.6%	+310 -108 +330 -125	1 4	-0.67869-0.63779	-0.56396
09/30/2022 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP	8.6% 74.9%	16.4%	+959 -315 +875 -330	1 3	-0.30331-0.31522	-0.28844
09/18/2022 05:00 PM	Maritimo Benfica	9.4% 73.9%	16.7%	+2334 -847 +2100 -900	0 5	-0.14212-0.15483	-0.30228
09/17/2022 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Boavista	69.8% 11.2%	19.0%	-230 +693 -240 +675	1 2	-2.10941-2.09867	-2.18961
09/17/2022 02:30 PM	Pacos Santa Clara	40.2% 30.7%	29.1%	+426 -116 +390 -120	1 1	-1.22792-1.24514	-1.23529
09/17/2022 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Gil Vicente FC	38.9% 30.7%	30.4%	+283 +107 +275 +105	2 2	-1.28634-1.27122	-1.19069
09/11/2022 07:30 PM	Braga Rio Ave	59.4% 18.0%	22.6%	-173 +525 -180 +510	3 2	-0.48475-0.49127	-0.52168
09/11/2022 05:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Maritimo	29.9% 40.1%	30.0%	+174 +178 +170 +170	2 1	-1.03440-1.04512	-1.20892
09/10/2022 05:00 PM	Portimonense Sporting CP	6.8% 78.2%	15.0%	+841 -308 +800 -325	0 4	-0.30703-0.31680	-0.24604
09/10/2022 02:30 PM	Benfica Famalicao	67.0% 14.3%	18.7%	-238 +743 -240 +650	1 0	-0.37212-0.39899	-0.40066

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).