Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Boavista 		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-370
+1000
-385
+1000
2.15
0.73		2.88
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Games for Sep 22, 2024
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		29.2%
42.9%		27.9%
+340
-125
+365
-125
0
1		-0.63951-0.63875-0.84693
Belenenses
Maritimo		29.7%
41.2%		29.1%
+360
-115
+445
-135
1
1		-1.28587-1.27454-1.23464
Braga
Sporting CP		33.2%
42.2%		24.6%
+464
-154
+440
-165
2
1		-1.77561-1.73682-1.10163
Santa Clara
Moreirense		31.7%
40.9%		27.4%
+225
+150
+225
+145
2
0		-1.21362-1.22666-1.14898
Boavista
Pacos		24.9%
50.2%		24.9%
+210
+155
+215
+160
1
1		-1.14784-1.09892-1.39131
Vitoria
Portimonense		52.0%
23.4%		24.6%
+225
+130
+245
+115
1
1		-1.22758-1.26104-1.40214
Porto
Belenenses		70.7%
11.9%		17.4%
-375
+1200
-525
+1400
4
1		-0.27332-0.22269-0.34658
Pacos
Famalicao		40.7%
34.2%		25.1%
+290
+105
+305
+100
0
0		-1.24008-1.24268-1.38238
Tondela
Santa Clara		28.1%
44.8%		27.1%
+400
-128
+400
-135
2
2		-1.31935-1.33184-1.30560
Maritimo
Braga		16.7%
65.8%		17.5%
+712
-280
+725
-275
1
0		-2.14712-2.15961-1.79018
Moreirense
Benfica		18.2%
62.9%		18.9%
+1460
-500
+1400
-600
1
1		-2.00130-2.12712-1.66770
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		34.2%
37.6%		28.2%
+129
+225
+130
+240
1
1		-1.22724-1.18159-1.26553
Belenenses
Famalicao		29.1%
45.1%		25.7%
+650
-200
+620
-195
0
1		-0.44231-0.46267-0.79551
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		47.6%
27.0%		25.4%
+240
+125
+225
+125
2
3		-0.84395-0.86034-1.30859
Famalicao
Braga		18.5%
65.6%		15.9%
+444
-159
+480
-170
2
2		-1.46292-1.43700-1.83860
Pacos
Benfica		21.4%
58.2%		20.4%
+1311
-500
+1400
-525
0
2		-0.23068-0.22269-0.54072
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93089 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.90477 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88777
0.04312
0.01700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).