Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 30 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/09/2022 07:15 PM	Santa Clara Vitoria	19.8% 55.3%	24.9%	+317 +109 +300 +100	0 1	-0.75294-0.74482	-0.59283
09/05/2022 06:00 PM	Pacos Boavista	46.0% 26.0%	28.0%	+345 -102 +345 -110	0 1	-0.70680-0.69689	-1.34584
09/04/2022 07:30 PM	Famalicao Portimonense	42.7% 29.6%	27.7%	+205 +155 +195 +150	0 1	-0.95532-0.96648	-1.21831
09/04/2022 05:00 PM	Maritimo Santa Clara	29.2% 41.1%	29.7%	+302 +115 +310 +100	1 2	-0.77690-0.74345	-0.88992
09/03/2022 07:30 PM	Porto Gil Vicente FC	77.6% 7.4%	15.0%	-330 +1007 -340 +950	2 0	-0.29737-0.30961	-0.25319
09/03/2022 02:30 PM	Vitoria Braga	19.8% 57.5%	22.7%	+826 -263 +775 -275	0 1	-0.34427-0.36057	-0.55351
08/30/2022 07:15 PM	Pacos Benfica	14.8% 64.8%	20.4%	+3588 -1330 +3600 -1400	2 3	-0.10784-0.11900	-0.43417
08/28/2022 07:30 PM	Porto Rio Ave	71.3% 10.4%	18.3%	-312 +1037 -315 +950	1 3	-2.45644-2.40053	-2.26068
08/28/2022 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Famalicao	31.8% 40.5%	27.6%	+295 +110 +260 +115	0 1	-0.76856-0.81482	-0.90296
08/27/2022 05:00 PM	Benfica Boavista	69.9% 11.4%	18.6%	-260 +866 -320 +875	3 0	-0.35281-0.32040	-0.35763
08/27/2022 02:30 PM	Portimonense Maritimo	24.7% 46.1%	29.1%	+161 +200 +155 +190	1 0	-0.97686-0.98438	-1.39691
08/22/2022 07:15 PM	Famalicao Gil Vicente FC	36.3% 35.3%	28.4%	+243 +127 +245 +115	0 0	-1.26005-1.27168	-1.25896
08/21/2022 07:30 PM	Vitoria Portimonense	57.0% 18.2%	24.8%	+219 +150 +185 +160	1 2	-0.93818-1.00709	-1.70419
08/21/2022 05:00 PM	Maritimo Braga	10.0% 73.2%	16.8%	+1011 -355 +1000 -380	0 5	-0.27106-0.28169	-0.31222
08/20/2022 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Porto	22.2% 53.2%	24.6%	+311 +105 +300 -105	0 3	-0.73453-0.71980	-0.63168
08/15/2022 07:30 PM	Portimonense Pacos	16.9% 59.1%	24.0%	+194 +174 +195 +155	3 0	-1.09584-1.12927	-1.77922

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).