Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+139
+205
+145
+205
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼-102
u2¼-115

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-240
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-122
u2½-123

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.3%
34.2%		30.5%
+282
+128
+345
-110
1
0		-1.34831-1.54318-1.04109
Santa Clara
Portimonense		40.6%
29.1%		30.3%
+285
+121
+275
+115
0
0		-1.18322-1.19548-1.19363
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+216
+150
+205
+145
0
1		-0.93560-0.94348-0.99552
Sporting CP
Maritimo		67.1%
12.7%		20.3%
-262
+849
-275
+800
0
1		-2.28131-2.24460-2.06743
Rio Ave
Vitoria		23.0%
50.2%		26.7%
+307
+112
+280
+110
0
0		-1.21416-1.21372-1.31905
Portimonense
Benfica		6.9%
78.6%		14.4%
+1767
-588
+1700
-625
0
1		-0.18113-0.19898-0.24026
Braga
Santa Clara		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%


4
0
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-169
+573
-165
+490
2
1		-0.49438-0.52118-0.40115
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+2352
-998
+2000
-1050
1
3		-0.12792-0.14126-0.28378
Braga
Portimonense		72.6%
10.1%		17.3%
+111
+260
-110
+290
2
1		-0.77577-0.69589-0.32037
Maritimo
Vitoria		18.1%
57.6%		24.2%
+309
+112
+315
-105
0
1		-0.76778-0.71943-0.55097
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-387
+1283
-400
+1200
4
1		-0.26027-0.27273-0.24567
Famalicao
Maritimo		34.7%
36.9%		28.4%
+179
+177
+170
+170
0
0		-1.19677-1.21503-1.25931
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+223
+146
+195
+160
0
1		-0.93029-1.00570-0.71654
Vitoria
Sporting CP		18.1%
58.8%		23.0%
+680
-231
+700
-250
0
3		-0.39065-0.38509-0.53020
Pacos
Porto		9.0%
74.8%		16.2%
+2598
-823
+2250
-900
0
4		-0.14527-0.15478-0.29081
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).