Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Belenenses		62.8%
16.5%		20.7%
-385
+1250
-395
+1200
4
1		-0.26928-0.27776-0.46496
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		15.2%
67.8%		17.0%
+600
-220
+620
-230
2
1		-1.99033-2.02155-1.88453
Boavista
Santa Clara		29.8%
42.7%		27.5%
+310
+105
+300
+110
1
2		-0.76110-0.78955-0.85177
Maritimo
Porto		11.0%
73.8%		15.2%
+1400
-550
+1450
-600
1
2		-0.21218-0.20360-0.30403
Moreirense
Braga		19.2%
62.1%		18.7%
+725
-245
+750
-245
0
2		-0.38120-0.39109-0.47604
Tondela
Portimonense		34.0%
36.8%		29.1%
+240
+125
+240
+120
2
1		-1.25678-1.27418-1.07781
Famalicao
Porto		12.4%
74.6%		13.0%
+1187
-476
+1300
-510
1
3		-0.24098-0.22818-0.29291
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		29.2%
42.9%		27.9%
+340
-125
+365
-125
0
1		-0.63951-0.63875-0.84693
Belenenses
Maritimo		29.7%
41.2%		29.1%
+360
-115
+445
-135
1
1		-1.28587-1.27454-1.23464
Braga
Sporting CP		33.2%
42.2%		24.6%
+464
-154
+440
-165
2
1		-1.77561-1.73682-1.10163
Santa Clara
Moreirense		31.7%
40.9%		27.4%
+225
+150
+225
+145
2
0		-1.21362-1.22666-1.14898
Boavista
Pacos		24.9%
50.2%		24.9%
+210
+155
+215
+160
1
1		-1.14784-1.09892-1.39131
Vitoria
Portimonense		52.0%
23.4%		24.6%
+225
+130
+245
+115
1
1		-1.22758-1.26104-1.40214
Porto
Belenenses		70.7%
11.9%		17.4%
-375
+1200
-525
+1400
4
1		-0.27332-0.22269-0.34658
Pacos
Famalicao		40.7%
34.2%		25.1%
+290
+105
+305
+100
0
0		-1.24008-1.24268-1.38238
Tondela
Santa Clara		28.1%
44.8%		27.1%
+400
-128
+400
-135
2
2		-1.31935-1.33184-1.30560
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks33-0-0 (1.000)0-0.76570 
Sportsbooks32-0-0 (0.667)0-0.77282 
DRatings30-3-0 (0.000)0-1.22374
-0.45804
-0.45092

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).