Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 31 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/20/2023 02:30 PM	Portimonense Santa Clara	23.0% 49.0%	28.0%	+364 -125 +255 +110	0 1	-0.61362-0.79264	-0.71378
05/14/2023 05:00 PM	Santa Clara Braga	11.0% 71.6%	17.4%	+1160 -362 +1150 -415	3 5	-0.26659-0.26706	-0.33440
05/14/2023 02:30 PM	Vitoria Rio Ave	41.6% 29.4%	29.0%	+128 +250 +140 +210	1 0	-0.84586-0.92591	-0.87724
05/13/2023 07:30 PM	Maritimo Sporting CP	9.2% 73.6%	17.2%	+1720 -625 +1500 -600	1 2	-0.17427-0.20577	-0.30715
05/13/2023 05:00 PM	Benfica Portimonense	73.3% 9.5%	17.2%	-569 +1600 -485 +1200	5 1	-0.18854-0.23712	-0.31068
05/12/2023 07:15 PM	Boavista Gil Vicente FC	30.0% 40.0%	30.1%	+189 +165 +185 +145	1 3	-0.99533-0.94788	-0.91712
05/07/2023 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Pacos	56.7% 19.6%	23.7%	-330 +972 -340 +875	4 0	-0.29252-0.30878	-0.56770
05/07/2023 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Maritimo	37.1% 31.9%	31.0%	+351 -105 +275 +105	2 2	-1.25141-1.26058	-1.17147
05/06/2023 07:30 PM	Braga Benfica	31.2% 42.9%	25.9%	+526 -182 +490 -185	0 1	-0.46781-0.48204	-0.84714
05/06/2023 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Santa Clara	28.0% 42.9%	29.1%	+206 +140 +165 +165	2 3	-0.90266-1.02641	-0.84560
04/30/2023 07:30 PM	Famalicao Sporting CP	10.1% 73.9%	16.0%	+1583 -500 +1400 -500	1 2	-0.21594-0.22429	-0.30213
04/30/2023 05:00 PM	Boavista Porto	5.2% 82.5%	12.3%	+1650 -500 +1500 -600	0 1	-0.20066-0.20577	-0.19288
04/29/2023 07:30 PM	Benfica Gil Vicente FC	69.0% 12.1%	18.9%	-354 +1046 -305 +775	2 0	-0.27952-0.33320	-0.37154
04/29/2023 02:30 PM	Vitoria Maritimo	49.1% 23.8%	27.0%	+217 +147 +200 +140	2 1	-1.18042-1.15031	-0.71088
04/29/2023 02:30 PM	Portimonense Braga	7.3% 78.2%	14.5%	+1100 -410 +1000 -400	1 4	-0.24692-0.27527	-0.24590
04/24/2023 07:15 PM	Sporting CP Vitoria	50.2% 24.0%	25.8%	-240 +734 -250 +720	2 0	-0.37856-0.38649	-0.68983

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).