Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 30 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/14/2022 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Boavista	35.9% 33.1%	30.9%	+243 +150 +215 +150	1 2	-0.93872-0.96582	-1.10422
08/13/2022 07:30 PM	Rio Ave Sporting CP	12.1% 68.0%	19.9%	+1150 -416 +1500 -500	0 3	-0.27379-0.23309	-0.38634
08/08/2022 07:15 PM	Pacos Gil Vicente FC	44.6% 27.3%	28.1%	+314 +103 +310 -105	0 1	-0.73176-0.71803	-1.29876
08/07/2022 07:30 PM	Boavista Portimonense	34.8% 33.4%	31.8%	+240 +139 +245 +125	1 0	-1.24285-1.28880	-1.05656
08/07/2022 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Braga	34.7% 38.0%	27.3%	-103 +308 -110 +305	3 3	-1.31278-1.31800	-1.29986
08/06/2022 07:30 PM	Maritimo Porto	5.8% 81.0%	13.1%	+1766 -588 +1550 -600	1 5	-0.18357-0.20397	-0.21030
05/15/2022 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Vitoria	17.1% 59.5%	23.4%	+172 +160 +165 +150	0 5	-0.97923-0.96635	-0.51919
05/15/2022 05:00 PM	Braga Famalicao	65.7% 15.3%	19.0%	+127 +215 +125 +205	2 3	-1.17386-1.16402	-1.87849
05/14/2022 07:30 PM	Santa Clara Sporting CP	10.1% 71.9%	17.9%	+928 -333 +950 -360	0 4	-0.29010-0.29558	-0.32960
05/14/2022 05:00 PM	Portimonense Maritimo	24.7% 46.1%	29.1%	+207 +137 +230 +120	1 0	-1.14907-1.24434	-1.39691
05/14/2022 02:30 PM	Boavista Tondela	33.3% 35.3%	31.3%	+397 -133 +400 -140	2 2	-1.38127-1.37054	-1.16047
05/13/2022 07:15 PM	Benfica Pacos	56.5% 20.1%	23.4%	-110 +302 -185 +455	2 0	-0.67329-0.48475	-0.57105
05/09/2022 07:15 PM	Famalicao Belenenses	39.0% 32.0%	28.9%	+185 +160 +200 +145	3 2	-1.08960-1.15119	-0.94089
05/08/2022 07:30 PM	Pacos Santa Clara	40.2% 30.7%	29.1%	+390 -128 +340 -120	0 2	-0.60488-0.65541	-1.18189
05/08/2022 02:30 PM	Tondela Gil Vicente FC	27.6% 42.9%	29.5%	+367 -125 +345 -125	0 3	-0.61419-0.63709	-0.84623
05/07/2022 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Portimonense	72.9% 9.3%	17.7%	-259 +711 -300 +800	3 2	-0.35632-0.33798	-0.31596

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).