Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Vitoria 		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+190
+160
+190
+160
0.98
1.82		2.80
o2¼-120
u2¼+101

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pacos
Vitoria		26.8%
45.9%		27.3%
+290
+113
+300
+100
0
0		-1.23729-1.24559-1.29931
Famalicao
Boavista		37.7%
33.9%		28.4%
+199
+175
+210
+155
2
1		-1.12196-1.17837-0.97482
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+130
+233
+120
+230
0
0		-1.28764-1.27418-1.38174
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+1735
-625
+1800
-650
1
5		-0.17560-0.19439-0.52974
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.8%
34.0%		31.2%
+200
+183
+205
+160
2
0		-1.12396-1.16533-1.05527
Boavista
Sporting CP		8.2%
75.8%		16.0%
+1150
-373
+950
-370
0
3		-0.25742-0.28083-0.27693
Benfica
Maritimo		67.3%
12.9%		19.7%
-361
+1050
-385
+1000
3
0		-0.27537-0.28102-0.39559
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		24.4%
47.4%		28.3%
+218
+149
+220
+140
1
2		-0.93856-0.92591-0.74693
Santa Clara
Pacos		24.2%
48.9%		26.9%
+301
+110
+255
+115
0
1		-0.76748-0.81410-0.71509
Rio Ave
Braga		13.2%
67.3%		19.5%
+599
-178
+625
-200
0
2		-0.47506-0.45569-0.39674
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+187
+184
+180
+180
3
1		-1.07819-1.07614-0.76295
Maritimo
Gil Vicente FC		32.5%
36.8%		30.6%
+350
-110
+340
-115
0
2		-0.66865-0.67641-0.99886
Sporting CP
Portimonense		72.9%
9.3%		17.7%
-273
+872
-315
+900
1
0		-0.34250-0.32403-0.31596
Braga
Vitoria		48.5%
26.2%		25.3%
-105
+318
+100
+290
1
2		-1.47081-1.41026-1.34044
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+1630
-600
+1500
-620
2
1		-2.88993-2.82397-2.91029
Boavista
Pacos		20.0%
54.6%		25.4%
+185
+165
+185
+165
3
1		-1.09198-1.09688-1.60809
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).