Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+139
+205
+145
+205
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼-102
u2¼-115

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-240
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-122
u2½-123

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		26.1%
44.7%		29.3%
+258
+126
+230
+120
2
1		-1.29117-1.24434-1.34492
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+284
+149
+215
+145
2
3		-0.87671-0.94317-0.56365
Portimonense
Rio Ave		19.8%
53.2%		27.0%
+237
+147
+220
+135
0
1		-0.91068-0.90372-0.63027
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+269
+126
+275
+115
2
3		-0.84485-0.81353-0.50005
Pacos
Famalicao		41.1%
31.8%		27.1%
+400
-110
+390
-125
1
2		-0.66355-0.64014-1.14432
Benfica
Porto		21.8%
54.4%		23.8%
+221
+141
+215
+130
1
0		-1.19092-1.19690-1.52450
Maritimo
Boavista		33.6%
35.2%		31.2%
+388
-109
+375
-130
1
1		-1.28111-1.33306-1.16504
Vitoria
Pacos		37.2%
33.6%		29.1%
+128
+257
+120
+240
1
0		-0.84749-0.83884-0.98779
Rio Ave
Benfica		12.4%
68.0%		19.5%
+1602
-500
+1500
-610
2
4		-0.19834-0.20125-0.38505
Porto
Portimonense		80.5%
5.9%		13.6%
-233
+822
-280
+775
2
0		-0.34905-0.35525-0.21740
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-200
+638
-200
+575
2
1		-0.42118-0.45703-0.42975
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+298
+119
+295
+105
0
4		-0.79116-0.76992-0.76520
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		27.5%
43.1%		29.4%
+230
+151
+230
+140
0
1		-0.94199-0.92712-0.84278
Benfica
Vitoria		50.0%
24.7%		25.3%
-309
+900
-330
+850
0
0		-1.76949-1.77278-1.37563
Braga
Porto		20.5%
56.9%		22.6%
+310
-108
+330
-125
1
4		-0.67869-0.63779-0.56396
Gil Vicente FC
Sporting CP		8.6%
74.9%		16.4%
+959
-315
+875
-330
1
3		-0.30331-0.31522-0.28844
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).