Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 2 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/15/2022 06:00 PM	Maritimo Braga	16.7% 65.8%	17.5%	+712 -280 +725 -275	1 0	-2.14712-2.15961	-1.79018
01/15/2022 06:00 PM	Moreirense Benfica	18.2% 62.9%	18.9%	+1460 -500 +1400 -600	1 1	-2.00130-2.12712	-1.66770
01/15/2022 03:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Boavista	34.2% 37.6%	28.2%	+129 +225 +130 +240	1 1	-1.22724-1.18159	-1.26553
01/13/2022 06:00 PM	Belenenses Famalicao	29.1% 45.1%	25.7%	+650 -200 +620 -195	0 1	-0.44231-0.46267	-0.79551
01/10/2022 08:15 PM	Vitoria Gil Vicente FC	47.6% 27.0%	25.4%	+240 +125 +225 +125	2 3	-0.84395-0.86034	-1.30859
01/09/2022 06:00 PM	Famalicao Braga	18.5% 65.6%	15.9%	+444 -159 +480 -170	2 2	-1.46292-1.43700	-1.83860
01/09/2022 06:00 PM	Pacos Benfica	21.4% 58.2%	20.4%	+1311 -500 +1400 -525	0 2	-0.23068-0.22269	-0.54072
01/09/2022 03:30 PM	Maritimo Portimonense	38.1% 33.0%	28.9%	+295 +105 +265 +115	2 1	-1.41589-1.34504	-0.96451
01/08/2022 08:30 PM	Tondela Boavista	31.3% 40.5%	28.3%	+265 +115 +290 +100	1 1	-1.24587-1.27307	-1.26397
01/07/2022 06:30 PM	Sporting CP Santa Clara	58.6% 20.1%	21.3%	-227 +673 -250 +800	2 3	-2.08707-2.24857	-1.60261
01/03/2022 08:15 PM	Moreirense Tondela	41.0% 31.3%	27.7%	+170 +180 +160 +190	1 2	-1.05705-1.11541	-1.16245
12/30/2021 09:00 PM	Benfica Porto	27.0% 50.0%	23.0%	+380 -130 +350 -130	1 3	-0.61343-0.61990	-0.69241
12/30/2021 05:00 PM	Santa Clara Pacos	28.1% 46.0%	25.9%	+197 +165 +195 +170	1 2	-1.00854-1.04044	-0.77727
12/29/2021 09:00 PM	Portimonense Sporting CP	12.2% 70.8%	17.0%	+1050 -345 +1150 -380	2 3	-0.29453-0.28263	-0.34545
12/29/2021 07:00 PM	Boavista Vitoria	21.9% 55.0%	23.1%	+470 -150 +455 -160	1 1	-1.38071-1.41165	-1.46378
12/28/2021 05:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Tondela	36.1% 35.6%	28.4%	+125 +225 +115 +240	3 0	-0.84807-0.81744	-1.02004

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).