Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Famalicao
Vitoria 		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+195
+152
+190
+160
2.80
o2¼-132
u2½-125

TIME
HALF		1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Maritimo		33.2%
36.0%		30.9%
+280
+125
+280
+115
1
3		-0.84579-0.81507-1.02285
Portimonense
Famalicao		23.0%
51.6%		25.4%
+390
-120
+380
-120
0
1		-0.64478-0.65710-0.66242
Boavista
Benfica		8.3%
76.0%		15.7%
+1900
-666
+1900
-725
1
3		-0.17606-0.17800-0.27409
Famalicao
Santa Clara		32.7%
39.6%		27.7%
+145
+226
+160
+200
3
1		-0.93902-1.00550-1.11862
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1463
-463
+1400
-525
0
1		-0.22436-0.22078-0.26130
Maritimo
Portimonense		37.8%
30.9%		31.2%
+214
+150
+210
+140
1
2		-0.94305-0.92591-1.17299
Braga
Maritimo		66.3%
13.8%		19.9%
-111
+330
-120
+330
2
1		-0.67082-0.65682-0.41075
Porto
Sporting CP		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
+197
+165
+190
+160
2
1		-1.11572-1.11541-0.81665
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+282
+112
+265
+105
1
0		-1.36665-1.34508-1.26429
Portimonense
Vitoria		13.5%
64.8%		21.7%
+348
-103
+350
-115
0
1		-0.69465-0.67566-0.43453
Sporting CP
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.5%		23.0%
-267
+911
-265
+850
1
0		-0.34817-0.36769-0.50345
Pacos
Portimonense		50.8%
22.3%		26.9%
+242
+138
+230
+135
0
1		-0.89377-0.90429-1.50076
Famalicao
Braga		11.0%
73.1%		15.9%
+571
-180
+575
-190
1
4		-0.46973-0.47188-0.31292
Boavista
Santa Clara		26.7%
44.3%		29.0%
+187
+191
+175
+185
2
2		-1.12371-1.13392-1.23729
Braga
Sporting CP		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+330
-109
+325
-115
0
5		-0.67505-0.67627-0.83667
Porto
Maritimo		76.4%
7.9%		15.7%
-370
+1278
-380
+1200
2
0		-0.26295-0.28279-0.26945
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).