Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 3 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/19/2021 09:00 PM	Belenenses Braga	14.5% 68.2%	17.3%	+1286 -455 +1300 -475	0 1	-0.24280-0.24114	-0.38246
12/19/2021 05:00 PM	Moreirense Boavista	39.0% 33.1%	27.9%	+165 +187 +175 +175	0 1	-1.09664-1.06025	-1.10527
12/19/2021 05:00 PM	Maritimo Benfica	15.8% 66.4%	17.7%	+1410 -526 +1900 -650	1 7	-0.21972-0.19189	-0.40889
12/18/2021 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Gil Vicente FC	61.8% 18.2%	20.0%	-130 +440 -160 +515	3 0	-0.58817-0.53616	-0.48180
12/18/2021 03:30 PM	Pacos Tondela	46.1% 27.7%	26.2%	+182 +149 +185 +155	1 0	-1.08666-1.09679	-0.77501
12/17/2021 07:00 PM	Vitoria Santa Clara	44.4% 29.4%	26.2%	+140 +235 +130 +215	0 1	-1.22254-1.19690	-1.22520
12/12/2021 08:30 PM	Braga Porto	26.2% 51.8%	22.0%	+650 -227 +650 -240	0 1	-0.40236-0.39686	-0.65743
12/12/2021 06:00 PM	Benfica Famalicao	59.9% 21.5%	18.6%	-171 +450 -170 +465	4 1	-0.51228-0.51191	-0.51183
12/12/2021 03:30 PM	Portimonense Moreirense	25.4% 48.3%	26.3%	+210 +140 +230 +140	1 0	-1.17818-1.24039	-1.37030
12/11/2021 08:30 PM	Boavista Sporting CP	14.1% 68.3%	17.6%	+1335 -420 +1650 -550	0 2	-0.24595-0.21722	-0.38139
12/11/2021 06:00 PM	Tondela Vitoria	20.4% 57.2%	22.4%	+425 -170 +450 -175	2 5	-0.51602-0.51795	-0.55879
12/11/2021 03:30 PM	Santa Clara Maritimo	34.9% 36.9%	28.2%	+174 +170 +190 +170	1 4	-1.04760-1.04064	-0.99590
12/10/2021 08:15 PM	Gil Vicente FC Pacos	25.8% 49.2%	25.0%	+117 +270 +110 +265	1 0	-0.81096-0.79376	-1.35325
12/05/2021 06:00 PM	Famalicao Gil Vicente FC	37.5% 36.7%	25.8%	+125 +220 +130 +215	0 4	-1.21049-1.19690	-1.00169
12/04/2021 08:30 PM	Vitoria Pacos	38.0% 35.4%	26.7%	+156 +189 +140 +220	2 1	-0.99269-0.92591	-0.96787
12/04/2021 06:00 PM	Maritimo Boavista	35.1% 36.4%	28.5%	+245 +140 +210 +150	1 1	-1.17112-1.16437	-1.25506

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).