Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 3 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/03/2021 09:15 PM	Sporting CP Benfica	35.0% 39.6%	25.4%	+280 +112 +280 +110	3 1	-1.37484-1.38553	-1.05074
12/03/2021 07:00 PM	Porto Portimonense	73.1% 11.0%	15.9%	-230 +861 -270 +850	3 0	-0.37032-0.36613	-0.31284
11/28/2021 08:30 PM	Vitoria Porto	18.1% 63.0%	18.9%	+1000 -385 +1100 -425	1 2	-0.27867-0.26161	-0.46127
11/28/2021 06:00 PM	Tondela Sporting CP	13.0% 70.1%	16.9%	+1509 -600 +1300 -625	0 2	-0.20328-0.19830	-0.35583
11/28/2021 03:30 PM	Pacos Maritimo	41.6% 31.3%	27.1%	+221 +145 +255 +125	0 2	-0.93453-0.85849	-1.16043
11/27/2021 03:30 PM	Portimonense Famalicao	27.5% 47.9%	24.5%	+380 -125 +430 -140	3 0	-1.61244-1.71630	-1.28953
11/26/2021 08:15 PM	Gil Vicente FC Moreirense	29.2% 44.0%	26.8%	+192 +160 +200 +155	2 2	-1.21285-1.16709	-1.31658
11/07/2021 09:15 PM	Braga Benfica	33.9% 41.9%	24.2%	+424 -154 +470 -175	1 6	-0.54003-0.50069	-0.86891
11/07/2021 07:00 PM	Sporting CP Pacos	51.7% 25.0%	23.3%	-161 +534 -170 +625	2 0	-0.52017-0.51452	-0.65989
11/07/2021 05:00 PM	Porto Santa Clara	67.5% 14.9%	17.6%	-256 +791 -250 +725	3 0	-0.36060-0.38578	-0.39272
11/07/2021 02:00 PM	Maritimo Tondela	37.0% 34.4%	28.6%	+275 +109 +270 +110	2 4	-0.77483-0.79025	-1.06729
11/06/2021 08:30 PM	Moreirense Vitoria	26.5% 48.6%	24.9%	+445 -164 +490 -165	1 2	-0.52935-0.52118	-0.72157
11/06/2021 06:00 PM	Belenenses Portimonense	34.2% 35.4%	30.3%	+400 -122 +380 -120	0 2	-0.65166-0.65710	-1.03755
11/05/2021 09:15 PM	Famalicao Boavista	38.4% 35.6%	26.0%	-102 +300 -105 +310	5 2	-0.72792-0.71803	-0.95737
11/01/2021 09:15 PM	Pacos Moreirense	38.0% 34.9%	27.1%	+220 +140 +210 +145	1 1	-1.20614-1.19448	-1.30453
11/01/2021 07:00 PM	Portimonense Braga	13.4% 70.8%	15.8%	+625 -210 +575 -210	0 3	-0.43320-0.43615	-0.34510

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).