Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Maritimo		76.4%
7.9%		15.7%
-370
+1278
-380
+1200
2
0		-0.26295-0.28279-0.26945
Gil Vicente FC
Pacos		21.1%
53.3%		25.6%
+146
+217
+140
+210
1
2		-1.18293-1.18185-0.62890
Portimonense
Boavista		27.1%
42.9%		30.0%
+349
+100
+285
+105
2
4		-0.71857-0.76718-0.84614
Benfica
Pacos		56.5%
20.1%		23.4%
-510
+1801
-520
+1500
2
0		-0.20116-0.22620-0.57105
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+305
+116
+305
+105
0
0		-1.17435-1.19826-1.24834
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-335
+904
-320
+950
1
0		-0.31798-0.32021-0.46380
Benfica
Santa Clara		65.3%
14.2%		20.5%
-381
+1186
-400
+1100
3
0		-0.26948-0.27194-0.42682
Braga
Pacos		55.2%
21.4%		23.4%
-236
+692
-250
+720
2
1		-0.39386-0.38649-0.59375
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+211
+158
+205
+150
1
2		-0.97501-0.96551-1.48598
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+1550
-497
+1400
-500
1
4		-0.22354-0.23256-0.20038
Sporting CP
Benfica		32.9%
39.5%		27.6%
+351
-112
+330
-120
2
2		-1.31442-1.34542-1.28801
Boavista
Braga		8.8%
75.6%		15.6%
+943
-318
+870
-325
0
1		-0.30500-0.31669-0.28020
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.3%
34.2%		30.5%
+282
+128
+345
-110
1
0		-1.34831-1.54318-1.04109
Santa Clara
Portimonense		40.6%
29.1%		30.3%
+285
+121
+275
+115
0
0		-1.18322-1.19548-1.19363
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+216
+150
+205
+145
0
1		-0.93560-0.94348-0.99552
Sporting CP
Maritimo		67.1%
12.7%		20.3%
-262
+849
-275
+800
0
1		-2.28131-2.24460-2.06743
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).