Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-104
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Vitoria		23.0%
50.2%		26.7%
+307
+112
+280
+110
0
0		-1.21416-1.21372-1.31905
Portimonense
Benfica		6.9%
78.6%		14.4%
+1767
-588
+1700
-625
0
1		-0.18113-0.19898-0.24026
Braga
Santa Clara		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%


4
0
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.0%
14.0%		19.0%
-169
+573
-165
+490
2
1		-0.49438-0.52118-0.40115
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		8.8%
75.3%		15.9%
+2352
-998
+2000
-1050
1
3		-0.12792-0.14126-0.28378
Braga
Portimonense		72.6%
10.1%		17.3%
+111
+260
-110
+290
2
1		-0.77577-0.69589-0.32037
Maritimo
Vitoria		18.1%
57.6%		24.2%
+309
+112
+315
-105
0
1		-0.76778-0.71943-0.55097
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-387
+1283
-400
+1200
4
1		-0.26027-0.27273-0.24567
Famalicao
Maritimo		34.7%
36.9%		28.4%
+179
+177
+170
+170
0
0		-1.19677-1.21503-1.25931
Boavista
Rio Ave		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+223
+146
+195
+160
0
1		-0.93029-1.00570-0.71654
Vitoria
Sporting CP		18.1%
58.8%		23.0%
+680
-231
+700
-250
0
3		-0.39065-0.38509-0.53020
Pacos
Porto		9.0%
74.8%		16.2%
+2598
-823
+2250
-900
0
4		-0.14527-0.15478-0.29081
Portimonense
Gil Vicente FC		26.1%
44.7%		29.3%
+258
+126
+230
+120
2
1		-1.29117-1.24434-1.34492
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+284
+149
+215
+145
2
3		-0.87671-0.94317-0.56365
Portimonense
Rio Ave		19.8%
53.2%		27.0%
+237
+147
+220
+135
0
1		-0.91068-0.90372-0.63027
Boavista
Vitoria		16.2%
60.6%		23.2%
+269
+126
+275
+115
2
3		-0.84485-0.81353-0.50005
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).