Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/25/2021 08:15 PM	Belenenses Boavista	31.5% 39.0%	29.5%	+270 +120	0 0	-1.16648	-1.22129
10/25/2021 06:00 PM	Braga Gil Vicente FC	61.1% 19.7%	19.2%	-135 +375 -140 +400	1 0	-0.60135-0.58780	-0.49274
10/23/2021 07:30 PM	Moreirense Sporting CP	17.8% 62.8%	19.5%	+1435 -500 +1450 -500	0 1	-0.22522-0.23274	-0.46553
10/23/2021 05:00 PM	Porto Tondela	72.5% 11.7%	15.8%	-435 +1162 -400 +1000	3 1	-0.25720-0.27279	-0.32154
10/23/2021 02:30 PM	Famalicao Santa Clara	34.7% 39.6%	25.7%	+175 +165 +175 +165	2 0	-1.05734-1.05912	-1.05878
10/22/2021 07:15 PM	Maritimo Vitoria	23.5% 52.5%	24.0%	+600 -202 +600 -200	1 2	-0.45574-0.45751	-0.64382
10/03/2021 07:30 PM	Boavista Braga	15.4% 68.0%	16.6%	+740 -273 +740 -260	2 2	-1.63455-1.60864	-1.79517
10/03/2021 05:00 PM	Portimonense Benfica	12.6% 71.2%	16.2%	+1360 -476 +1450 -500	1 0	-2.73137-2.79116	-2.06997
10/03/2021 02:30 PM	Tondela Belenenses	31.8% 38.6%	29.6%	+165 +170 +170 +170	2 0	-1.02318-1.04055	-1.14677
10/02/2021 05:00 PM	Pacos Porto	15.5% 67.4%	17.1%	+1064 -370 +1300 -450	1 2	-0.28406-0.24909	-0.39503
10/01/2021 08:15 PM	Vitoria Famalicao	45.3% 30.5%	24.2%	+172 +165 +175 +150	2 1	-1.04322-1.05976	-0.79169
10/01/2021 06:00 PM	Moreirense Maritimo	36.8% 35.1%	28.0%	+231 +130 +255 +115	0 0	-1.23306-1.24258	-1.27211
09/27/2021 06:00 PM	Belenenses Pacos	23.7% 50.7%	25.6%	+425 -125 +390 -120	2 2	-1.26525-1.24514	-1.36102
09/26/2021 05:00 PM	Braga Santa Clara	57.8% 21.7%	20.5%	-107 +310 -105 +300	1 1	-1.29825-1.28910	-1.58314
09/25/2021 07:30 PM	Famalicao Tondela	40.4% 33.7%	25.9%	-104 +292 -105 +285	2 3	-1.41940-1.39659	-1.08827
09/25/2021 05:00 PM	Benfica Vitoria	46.8% 28.9%	24.3%	-141 +405 -165 +425	3 1	-0.57862-0.52374	-0.75971

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).