Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/24/2021 08:15 PM	Porto Gil Vicente FC	70.2% 13.3%	16.5%	-241 +700 -270 +700	2 1	-0.39065-0.36837	-0.35334
09/24/2021 06:00 PM	Maritimo Sporting CP	15.4% 66.2%	18.4%	+1200 -360 +1200 -420	0 1	-0.27801-0.26359	-0.41226
09/20/2021 08:15 PM	Tondela Braga	14.2% 69.9%	15.9%	+850 -325 +900 -360	1 3	-0.31120-0.29323	-0.35765
09/20/2021 06:00 PM	Boavista Benfica	14.5% 68.6%	16.9%	+2500 -700 +1900 -725	1 3	-0.15780-0.17800	-0.37748
09/19/2021 05:00 PM	Moreirense Porto	12.9% 71.1%	16.0%	+1237 -500 +1700 -650	0 5	-0.22735-0.19152	-0.34075
09/18/2021 05:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Belenenses	34.7% 35.9%	29.4%	+119 +260 +125 +230	1 1	-1.21554-1.24316	-1.22394
09/18/2021 02:30 PM	Maritimo Famalicao	32.4% 42.0%	25.6%	+380 -120 +375 -135	0 0	-1.32208-1.37215	-1.36442
09/17/2021 07:15 PM	Santa Clara Portimonense	40.0% 31.6%	28.4%	+251 +131 +260 +120	1 2	-0.88819-0.83704	-1.15331
08/29/2021 07:30 PM	Pacos Portimonense	47.3% 26.5%	26.2%	+240 +133 +250 +130	1 0	-1.26862-1.30001	-0.74898
08/29/2021 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Santa Clara	30.8% 41.7%	27.4%	+205 +160 +195 +165	0 1	-1.00570-1.02304	-0.87366
08/29/2021 05:00 PM	Tondela Benfica	13.4% 70.4%	16.2%	+2100 -665 +2500 -950	1 2	-0.15571-0.14742	-0.35118
08/29/2021 05:00 PM	Vitoria Braga	25.6% 52.4%	22.1%	+355 -129 +330 -125	0 0	-1.35023-1.38502	-1.51172
08/28/2021 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Famalicao	60.0% 21.0%	19.0%	-180 +548 -190 +600	1 1	-1.43050-1.43318	-1.66152
08/27/2021 06:00 PM	Moreirense Belenenses	39.5% 31.5%	28.9%	+121 +262 +120 +250	1 1	-1.20791-1.21456	-1.24098
08/23/2021 08:15 PM	Santa Clara Boavista	36.9% 34.8%	28.2%	+195 +161 +200 +160	0 2	-1.00611-1.00550	-1.05446
08/22/2021 05:00 PM	Porto Maritimo	68.9% 13.9%	17.2%	-220 +710 -240 +775	1 1	-1.49942-1.51000	-1.76131

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).