Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/22/2021 02:30 PM	Portimonense Tondela	31.6% 39.5%	28.9%	+174 +189 +160 +190	3 0	-1.03600-1.00622	-1.15068
08/21/2021 07:30 PM	Belenenses Sporting CP	13.2% 68.2%	18.5%	+1500 -500 +1500 -500	0 2	-0.23240-0.23081	-0.38227
08/21/2021 05:00 PM	Benfica Gil Vicente FC	61.9% 18.7%	19.4%	-150 +435 -150 +440	2 0	-0.55837-0.56138	-0.48002
08/20/2021 08:15 PM	Braga Moreirense	55.6% 23.2%	21.2%	-143 +400 -150 +450	3 2	-0.57796-0.56512	-0.58731
08/16/2021 06:00 PM	Pacos Boavista	43.9% 29.5%	26.6%	+155 +210 +150 +210	0 3	-1.16806-1.18581	-1.22234
08/15/2021 07:30 PM	Moreirense Santa Clara	35.3% 36.9%	27.8%	+310 +104 +325 -105	2 2	-1.24525-1.24320	-1.28060
08/15/2021 05:00 PM	Porto Famalicao	69.3% 15.6%	15.1%	-250 +683 -260 +725	2 1	-0.38353-0.37589	-0.36671
08/15/2021 02:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Portimonense	37.1% 34.1%	28.7%	+215 +149 +210 +155	1 0	-1.18721-1.17837	-0.99069
08/14/2021 07:30 PM	Sporting CP Braga	36.4% 38.7%	25.0%	+145 +200 +155 +195	2 1	-0.94410-0.98840	-1.01198
08/09/2021 07:15 PM	Boavista Gil Vicente FC	32.3% 39.7%	28.0%	+370 -111 +400 -120	0 3	-0.68780-0.65792	-0.92455
08/08/2021 07:30 PM	Famalicao Pacos	29.2% 47.0%	23.8%	+200 +165 +200 +160	0 2	-1.00728-1.00550	-0.75604
08/08/2021 05:00 PM	Belenenses Porto	9.4% 75.0%	15.6%	+1500 -610 +1450 -625	0 2	-0.20125-0.19872	-0.28768
08/08/2021 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Tondela	38.9% 32.9%	28.2%	+143 +215 +145 +215	0 3	-1.19571-1.19448	-1.11066
08/08/2021 02:30 PM	Portimonense Vitoria	19.4% 58.3%	22.3%	+320 -104 +330 -105	1 0	-1.47872-1.50973	-1.63938
08/07/2021 07:30 PM	Braga Maritimo	59.6% 20.4%	20.0%	-125 +390 -125 +375	2 0	-0.63059-0.63828	-0.51736
08/07/2021 05:00 PM	Benfica Moreirense	56.5% 22.1%	21.4%	-230 +630 -275 +750	2 1	-0.40455-0.35988	-0.57093

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).