Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-550
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-104
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-173
+525
-180
+510
3
2		-0.48475-0.49127-0.52168
Gil Vicente FC
Maritimo		29.9%
40.1%		30.0%
+174
+178
+170
+170
2
1		-1.03440-1.04512-1.20892
Portimonense
Sporting CP		6.8%
78.2%		15.0%
+841
-308
+800
-325
0
4		-0.30703-0.31680-0.24604
Benfica
Famalicao		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-238
+743
-240
+650
1
0		-0.37212-0.39899-0.40066
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+317
+109
+300
+100
0
1		-0.75294-0.74482-0.59283
Pacos
Boavista		46.0%
26.0%		28.0%
+345
-102
+345
-110
0
1		-0.70680-0.69689-1.34584
Famalicao
Portimonense		42.7%
29.6%		27.7%
+205
+155
+195
+150
0
1		-0.95532-0.96648-1.21831
Maritimo
Santa Clara		29.2%
41.1%		29.7%
+302
+115
+310
+100
1
2		-0.77690-0.74345-0.88992
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		77.6%
7.4%		15.0%
-330
+1007
-340
+950
2
0		-0.29737-0.30961-0.25319
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+826
-263
+775
-275
0
1		-0.34427-0.36057-0.55351
Pacos
Benfica		14.8%
64.8%		20.4%
+3588
-1330
+3600
-1400
2
3		-0.10784-0.11900-0.43417
Porto
Rio Ave		71.3%
10.4%		18.3%
-312
+1037
-315
+950
1
3		-2.45644-2.40053-2.26068
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+295
+110
+260
+115
0
1		-0.76856-0.81482-0.90296
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-260
+866
-320
+875
3
0		-0.35281-0.32040-0.35763
Portimonense
Maritimo		24.7%
46.1%		29.1%
+161
+200
+155
+190
1
0		-0.97686-0.98438-1.39691
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.3%
35.3%		28.4%
+243
+127
+245
+115
0
0		-1.26005-1.27168-1.25896
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).