Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-550
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-104
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Portimonense		57.0%
18.2%		24.8%
+219
+150
+185
+160
1
2		-0.93818-1.00709-1.70419
Maritimo
Braga		10.0%
73.2%		16.8%
+1011
-355
+1000
-380
0
5		-0.27106-0.28169-0.31222
Sporting CP
Porto		22.2%
53.2%		24.6%
+311
+105
+300
-105
0
3		-0.73453-0.71980-0.63168
Portimonense
Pacos		16.9%
59.1%		24.0%
+194
+174
+195
+155
3
0		-1.09584-1.12927-1.77922
Santa Clara
Boavista		35.9%
33.1%		30.9%
+243
+150
+215
+150
1
2		-0.93872-0.96582-1.10422
Rio Ave
Sporting CP		12.1%
68.0%		19.9%
+1150
-416
+1500
-500
0
3		-0.27379-0.23309-0.38634
Pacos
Gil Vicente FC		44.6%
27.3%		28.1%
+314
+103
+310
-105
0
1		-0.73176-0.71803-1.29876
Boavista
Portimonense		34.8%
33.4%		31.8%
+240
+139
+245
+125
1
0		-1.24285-1.28880-1.05656
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
-103
+308
-110
+305
3
3		-1.31278-1.31800-1.29986
Maritimo
Porto		5.8%
81.0%		13.1%
+1766
-588
+1550
-600
1
5		-0.18357-0.20397-0.21030
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		17.1%
59.5%		23.4%
+172
+160
+165
+150
0
5		-0.97923-0.96635-0.51919
Braga
Famalicao		65.7%
15.3%		19.0%
+127
+215
+125
+205
2
3		-1.17386-1.16402-1.87849
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		10.1%
71.9%		17.9%
+928
-333
+950
-360
0
4		-0.29010-0.29558-0.32960
Portimonense
Maritimo		24.7%
46.1%		29.1%
+207
+137
+230
+120
1
0		-1.14907-1.24434-1.39691
Boavista
Tondela		33.3%
35.3%		31.3%
+397
-133
+400
-140
2
2		-1.38127-1.37054-1.16047
Benfica
Pacos		56.5%
20.1%		23.4%
-110
+302
-185
+455
2
0		-0.67329-0.48475-0.57105
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).