Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/19/2021 08:45 PM	Maritimo Sporting CP	15.9% 68.7%	15.4%	+845 -300 +875 -315	1 5	-0.32336-0.32646	-0.37603
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	Rio Ave Nacional	40.4% 29.5%	30.0%	-167 +435 -170 +425	2 1	-0.51478-0.51395	-0.90525
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	SC Farense Santa Clara	27.6% 45.8%	26.6%	+253 +107 +240 +110	0 4	-0.77375-0.79644	-0.78010
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	Braga Portimonense	67.3% 17.2%	15.6%	+235 +138 +200 +140	0 0	-1.05161-1.03872	-1.07956
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	Boavista Gil Vicente FC	31.4% 38.6%	30.0%	+140 +215 +150 +200	2 1	-0.90333-0.97069	-1.15776
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	Benfica Vitoria	46.3% 28.7%	25.0%	+119 +217 +115 +200	3 1	-0.82123-0.81887	-0.76919
05/19/2021 07:00 PM	Famalicao Moreirense	32.2% 40.9%	26.9%	-112 +285 -110 +280	0 3	-1.39934-1.38725	-0.89411
05/19/2021 05:00 PM	Belenenses Porto	10.0% 79.8%	10.2%	+1200 -455 +1300 -500	0 4	-0.24030-0.23389	-0.22536
05/18/2021 07:15 PM	Pacos Tondela	45.6% 27.5%	27.0%	+134 +204 +145 +190	3 2	-0.89289-0.94631	-0.78566
05/16/2021 07:00 PM	Vitoria Maritimo	45.7% 27.6%	26.8%	+121 +268 +115 +275	0 0	-1.09269-1.09168	-1.03630
05/16/2021 04:00 PM	Santa Clara Belenenses	36.1% 32.0%	31.9%	+132 +234 +130 +230	2 0	-0.89028-0.88201	-1.01860
05/16/2021 02:00 PM	Nacional Famalicao	28.6% 45.5%	25.8%	+351 -133 +315 -125	0 3	-0.61164-0.63626	-0.78706
05/15/2021 07:30 PM	Porto Rio Ave	66.1% 17.3%	16.7%	-227 +710 -240 +700	3 0	-0.40176-0.40004	-0.41421
05/15/2021 05:00 PM	Sporting CP Benfica	34.0% 38.5%	27.6%	+311 -105 +310 -110	3 4	-0.70556-0.69866	-0.95508
05/15/2021 02:30 PM	Portimonense Boavista	29.3% 40.8%	29.9%	+216 +144 +215 +140	0 1	-0.92541-0.92576	-0.89725
05/15/2021 02:30 PM	Tondela SC Farense	33.1% 36.9%	30.0%	+560 -196 +550 -210	0 1	-0.44469-0.44158	-0.99653

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).