Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-550
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-104
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Belenenses		39.0%
32.0%		28.9%
+185
+160
+200
+145
3
2		-1.08960-1.15119-0.94089
Pacos
Santa Clara		40.2%
30.7%		29.1%
+390
-128
+340
-120
0
2		-0.60488-0.65541-1.18189
Tondela
Gil Vicente FC		27.6%
42.9%		29.5%
+367
-125
+345
-125
0
3		-0.61419-0.63709-0.84623
Sporting CP
Portimonense		72.9%
9.3%		17.7%
-259
+711
-300
+800
3
2		-0.35632-0.33798-0.31596
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+141
+199
+135
+195
1
0		-0.90567-0.90342-0.79118
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
+132
+252
+120
+225
1
1		-1.20551-1.28913-1.34331
Tondela
Pacos		18.1%
57.5%		24.4%
+150
+219
+135
+220
1
1		-1.19962-1.21244-1.40993
Gil Vicente FC
Sporting CP		8.6%
74.9%		16.4%
+746
-252
+760
-290
1
4		-0.35605-0.34540-0.28844
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+231
+141
+220
+140
2
1		-1.22608-1.21362-1.40344
Santa Clara
Vitoria		19.8%
55.3%		24.9%
+394
-127
+410
-135
1
1		-1.34792-1.31789-1.38910
Braga
Belenenses		69.6%
11.5%		18.9%
-105
+332
-115
+335
1
0		-0.69643-0.67495-0.36281
Benfica
Maritimo		67.3%
12.9%		19.7%
-163
+455
-165
+460
1
0		-0.50988-0.52373-0.39559
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-225
+757
-240
+715
3
0		-0.39704-0.39787-0.35949
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
-129
+390
-130
+360
0
1		-1.61737-1.57417-1.30564
Vitoria
Tondela		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+119
+253
-110
+295
1
1		-1.27393-1.34442-1.38573
Pacos
Gil Vicente FC		44.6%
27.3%		28.1%
+400
-140
+430
-145
1
1		-1.37650-1.34780-1.27040
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).