Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Games for Nov 16, 2024

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/14/2021 08:15 PM	Moreirense Braga	19.6% 63.4%	17.0%	+692 -260 +600 -270	1 2	-0.35625-0.36807	-0.45528
05/14/2021 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Pacos	25.8% 49.1%	25.2%	+160 +196 +160 +200	2 0	-0.99463-1.00550	-1.35588
05/12/2021 07:15 PM	Famalicao Vitoria	25.9% 51.9%	22.2%	+169 +175 +175 +170	2 1	-1.03631-1.06178	-1.35209
05/11/2021 07:30 PM	Boavista Sporting CP	14.7% 71.2%	14.0%	+1039 -320 +950 -325	0 1	-0.30426-0.31745	-0.33906
05/11/2021 05:00 PM	Benfica Nacional	66.3% 17.4%	16.3%	-255 +700 -270 +675	3 1	-0.36586-0.36489	-0.41077
05/11/2021 03:00 PM	Rio Ave Santa Clara	34.7% 34.1%	31.2%	+229 +136 +220 +135	0 1	-0.89806-0.90372	-1.07649
05/11/2021 03:00 PM	Belenenses Tondela	32.0% 35.6%	32.4%	+191 +170 +200 +165	3 1	-1.11021-1.14709	-1.13837
05/10/2021 07:15 PM	SC Farense Porto	9.5% 82.8%	7.8%	+860 -300 +850 -320	1 5	-0.32795-0.32296	-0.18908
05/10/2021 05:00 PM	Moreirense Portimonense	41.3% 29.4%	29.3%	+415 -125 +380 -130	2 1	-1.66845-1.61868	-0.88341
05/09/2021 07:00 PM	Braga Gil Vicente FC	62.4% 20.1%	17.5%	-118 +330 -125 +350	1 1	-1.08656-1.10001	-1.03836
05/09/2021 02:00 PM	Maritimo Pacos	26.5% 47.5%	26.0%	+232 +144 +230 +135	1 1	-1.08728-1.07404	-1.03591
05/07/2021 08:15 PM	Tondela Boavista	30.5% 39.4%	30.1%	+290 +105 +300 +100	1 1	-1.08126-1.09140	-1.05916
05/07/2021 06:00 PM	Santa Clara Famalicao	33.2% 39.2%	27.6%	+226 +130 +210 +135	0 1	-0.87827-0.90429	-0.93621
05/06/2021 07:30 PM	Vitoria SC Farense	52.6% 24.3%	23.1%	+229 +130 +230 +125	2 2	-1.04423-1.05171	-1.02812
05/06/2021 05:30 PM	Porto Benfica	42.8% 31.1%	26.1%	+195 +143 +195 +145	1 1	-1.02606-1.03790	-1.00868
05/06/2021 04:00 PM	Portimonense Belenenses	29.6% 38.6%	31.9%	+179 +234 +180 +220	0 1	-1.22721-1.21598	-0.95295

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).