Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/06/2021 02:00 PM	Nacional Moreirense	26.6% 46.1%	27.3%	+231 +129 +225 +130	2 2	-1.04937-1.05474	-1.04895
05/05/2021 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Rio Ave	55.3% 22.5%	22.2%	-133 +425 -130 +410	2 0	-0.60278-0.62044	-0.59232
05/05/2021 06:00 PM	Pacos Braga	22.7% 58.0%	19.4%	+625 -200 +640 -205	1 1	-1.22972-1.24928	-1.01480
05/05/2021 06:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Maritimo	31.3% 38.7%	30.0%	+172 +194 +165 +200	1 0	-1.04523-1.02304	-1.16027
05/01/2021 07:30 PM	Nacional Sporting CP	13.8% 72.7%	13.5%	+1176 -312 +1200 -400	0 2	-0.28576-0.27273	-0.31877
05/01/2021 05:00 PM	Rio Ave Portimonense	42.3% 28.2%	29.4%	+210 +147 +220 +145	0 0	-1.05981-1.07700	-1.06233
05/01/2021 05:00 PM	Boavista Santa Clara	29.3% 41.8%	28.9%	+345 -110 +350 -115	3 3	-1.10264-1.11486	-1.05018
05/01/2021 02:30 PM	SC Farense Gil Vicente FC	29.7% 42.4%	27.9%	+195 +157 +195 +160	0 0	-1.05740-1.06884	-1.03571
04/30/2021 08:15 PM	Famalicao Porto	12.9% 77.8%	9.3%	+633 -246 +700 -250	2 3	-0.39955-0.38299	-0.25147
04/30/2021 06:00 PM	Benfica Tondela	66.9% 17.2%	15.9%	-345 +900 -350 +1000	2 0	-0.29697-0.30059	-0.40212
04/30/2021 04:00 PM	Moreirense Vitoria	26.3% 48.4%	25.3%	+341 -114 +360 -120	0 2	-0.66785-0.65356	-0.72656
04/30/2021 02:00 PM	Belenenses Pacos	23.7% 50.8%	25.4%	+309 +117 +245 +120	0 1	-0.80024-0.84381	-0.67645
04/29/2021 07:30 PM	Braga Maritimo	60.6% 20.7%	18.6%	-160 +485 -160 +480	0 1	-1.80454-1.80758	-1.57277
04/27/2021 08:45 PM	Portimonense SC Farense	31.9% 38.2%	29.8%	+245 +138 +240 +125	1 1	-1.07596-1.06716	-1.05162
04/26/2021 08:15 PM	Porto Moreirense	67.9% 16.7%	15.4%	-440 +1335 -425 +1225	1 1	-1.47185-1.44806	-1.08970
04/26/2021 06:00 PM	Tondela Famalicao	28.5% 46.2%	25.3%	+385 -128 +375 -125	2 2	-1.11958-1.12346	-1.01426

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).