Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+154
+185
+155
+190
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼-102
u2¼-116

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-125
u2½-124

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Portimonense		52.0%
23.4%		24.6%
+225
+130
+245
+115
1
1		-1.22758-1.26104-1.40214
Porto
Belenenses		70.7%
11.9%		17.4%
-375
+1200
-525
+1400
4
1		-0.27332-0.22269-0.34658
Pacos
Famalicao		40.7%
34.2%		25.1%
+290
+105
+305
+100
0
0		-1.24008-1.24268-1.38238
Tondela
Santa Clara		28.1%
44.8%		27.1%
+400
-128
+400
-135
2
2		-1.31935-1.33184-1.30560
Maritimo
Braga		16.7%
65.8%		17.5%
+712
-280
+725
-275
1
0		-2.14712-2.15961-1.79018
Moreirense
Benfica		18.2%
62.9%		18.9%
+1460
-500
+1400
-600
1
1		-2.00130-2.12712-1.66770
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		34.2%
37.6%		28.2%
+129
+225
+130
+240
1
1		-1.22724-1.18159-1.26553
Belenenses
Famalicao		29.1%
45.1%		25.7%
+650
-200
+620
-195
0
1		-0.44231-0.46267-0.79551
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		47.6%
27.0%		25.4%
+240
+125
+225
+125
2
3		-0.84395-0.86034-1.30859
Famalicao
Braga		18.5%
65.6%		15.9%
+444
-159
+480
-170
2
2		-1.46292-1.43700-1.83860
Pacos
Benfica		21.4%
58.2%		20.4%
+1311
-500
+1400
-525
0
2		-0.23068-0.22269-0.54072
Maritimo
Portimonense		38.1%
33.0%		28.9%
+295
+105
+265
+115
2
1		-1.41589-1.34504-0.96451
Tondela
Boavista		31.3%
40.5%		28.3%
+265
+115
+290
+100
1
1		-1.24587-1.27307-1.26397
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		58.6%
20.1%		21.3%
-227
+673
-250
+800
2
3		-2.08707-2.24857-1.60261
Moreirense
Tondela		41.0%
31.3%		27.7%
+170
+180
+160
+190
1
2		-1.05705-1.11541-1.16245
Benfica
Porto		27.0%
50.0%		23.0%
+380
-130
+350
-130
1
3		-0.61343-0.61990-0.69241
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).