Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/26/2021 06:00 PM	Vitoria Nacional	50.2% 24.7%	25.1%	+109 +274 +110 +270	0 1	-1.36422-1.35662	-1.39756
04/26/2021 06:00 PM	Santa Clara Benfica	17.5% 66.9%	15.7%	+875 -294 +950 -320	1 2	-0.32548-0.32021	-0.40266
04/26/2021 04:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Belenenses	33.4% 34.4%	32.2%	+178 +188 +190 +180	1 2	-1.09727-1.07537	-1.06575
04/25/2021 07:00 PM	Sporting CP Braga	35.2% 37.5%	27.3%	+165 +170 +165 +175	1 0	-1.01891-1.02210	-1.04279
04/25/2021 04:30 PM	Pacos Rio Ave	35.2% 34.4%	30.5%	+247 +129 +250 +125	1 1	-1.07210-1.07836	-1.05684
04/25/2021 02:00 PM	Maritimo Boavista	33.8% 35.0%	31.2%	+269 +126 +250 +120	1 0	-1.32844-1.29960	-1.08412
04/22/2021 08:00 PM	Vitoria Porto	18.6% 64.7%	16.7%	+791 -278 +750 -280	0 1	-0.34827-0.35472	-0.43530
04/22/2021 06:00 PM	Benfica Portimonense	68.3% 16.3%	15.4%	-219 +600 -220 +620	5 1	-0.42182-0.42454	-0.38182
04/22/2021 04:00 PM	Famalicao Gil Vicente FC	36.2% 35.4%	28.4%	+174 +166 +175 +170	3 0	-1.06854-1.06178	-1.01719
04/22/2021 02:00 PM	Nacional Tondela	32.2% 36.7%	31.1%	+244 +120 +260 +110	1 2	-0.82376-0.79308	-1.00346
04/21/2021 08:15 PM	Belenenses Sporting CP	13.9% 71.5%	14.6%	+810 -238 +775 -250	2 2	-1.31952-1.30232	-1.15450
04/21/2021 06:00 PM	Boavista Braga	15.9% 70.5%	13.6%	+575 -215 +600 -215	1 2	-0.42622-0.42846	-0.34977
04/21/2021 04:00 PM	Rio Ave Maritimo	36.4% 32.6%	31.0%	+182 +168 +180 +165	0 1	-1.03005-1.02521	-1.12043
04/21/2021 02:30 PM	Moreirense Santa Clara	34.0% 35.6%	30.4%	+385 -127 +400 -130	0 0	-1.12461-1.13966	-1.05566
04/20/2021 07:00 PM	SC Farense Pacos	23.3% 54.5%	22.2%	+185 +165 +190 +150	2 0	-1.08818-1.11145	-1.45504
04/18/2021 04:30 PM	Porto Nacional	75.7% 12.4%	11.9%	-474 +1276 -475 +1200	1 0	-0.24107-0.24095	-0.27891

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).