Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1400
-800
+1650
-800
0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-115
u3¾-128

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for May 2, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Benfica
Maritimo		67.3%
12.9%		19.7%
-163
+455
-165
+460
1
0		-0.50988-0.52373-0.39559
Sporting CP
Boavista		69.8%
11.2%		19.0%
-225
+757
-240
+715
3
0		-0.39704-0.39787-0.35949
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
-129
+390
-130
+360
0
1		-1.61737-1.57417-1.30564
Vitoria
Tondela		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+119
+253
-110
+295
1
1		-1.27393-1.34442-1.38573
Pacos
Gil Vicente FC		44.6%
27.3%		28.1%
+400
-140
+430
-145
1
1		-1.37650-1.34780-1.27040
Famalicao
Benfica		10.3%
74.1%		15.7%
+855
-273
+780
-300
0
0		-1.68190-1.71869-1.85406
Maritimo
Santa Clara		29.2%
41.1%		29.7%
+365
-103
+375
-110
2
2		-1.21480-1.19789-1.21375
Moreirense
Portimonense		43.6%
27.0%		29.4%
+224
+142
+210
+140
0
1		-0.90745-0.92591-1.31033
Benfica
Sporting CP		31.7%
41.0%		27.3%
+298
-106
+295
-110
2
0		-1.40650-1.42341-1.14775
Portimonense
Porto		4.4%
84.1%		11.5%
+3049
-900
+2000
-800
0
7		-0.12705-0.16733-0.17319
Boavista
Maritimo		28.6%
41.5%		30.0%
+266
+135
+235
+145
0
4		-0.86657-0.94631-0.88037
Tondela
Moreirense		22.4%
50.4%		27.2%
+252
+127
+240
+120
0
2		-0.83919-0.83884-0.68571
Pacos
Vitoria		26.8%
45.9%		27.3%
+415
-119
+380
-135
0
4		-0.61487-0.60602-0.77901
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		28.2%
45.1%		26.7%
+262
+116
+215
+135
2
2		-1.27740-1.22809-1.32114
Porto
Vitoria		62.9%
15.7%		21.4%
-259
+697
-285
+725
1
0		-0.35580-0.35140-0.46380
Famalicao
Portimonense		42.7%
29.6%		27.7%
+183
+187
+160
+200
0
1		-1.08669-1.14863-1.21831
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).