Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-550
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-104
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pacos
Sporting CP		14.5%
64.8%		20.7%
+2060
-625
+1500
-550
0
2		-0.18140-0.21729-0.43339
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+135
+229
+115
+240
1
0		-0.87859-0.81744-0.82739
Tondela
Maritimo		26.3%
44.4%		29.3%
+272
+127
+280
+105
3
1		-1.33249-1.38758-1.33701
Boavista
Famalicao		26.9%
46.5%		26.5%
+421
-120
+305
+105
2
1		-1.68077-1.44958-1.31215
Portimonense
Belenenses		27.9%
40.1%		31.9%
+145
+231
+125
+245
0
2		-1.22237-1.28880-0.91267
Benfica
Braga		34.4%
39.1%		26.5%
+170
+176
+135
+200
2
3		-1.03030-1.15024-0.93877
Porto
Boavista		78.2%
7.0%		14.8%
-271
+840
-265
+775
1
0		-0.35220-0.36976-0.24567
Braga
Portimonense		72.6%
10.1%		17.3%
-106
+331
-115
+340
2
1		-0.69003-0.67641-0.32037
Maritimo
Gil Vicente FC		32.5%
36.8%		30.6%
+432
-138
+410
-140
1
1		-1.35759-1.35681-1.18342
Moreirense
Pacos		26.4%
46.0%		27.5%
+254
+136
+235
+130
1
2		-0.87529-0.88242-0.77625
Sporting CP
Vitoria		50.2%
24.0%		25.8%
-147
+415
-150
+400
3
1		-0.55396-0.55961-0.68983
Belenenses
Santa Clara		25.1%
45.1%		29.8%
+581
-180
+700
-225
0
0		-1.40605-1.49816-1.20992
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-230
+800
-225
+700
2
0		-0.38297-0.41899-0.46860
Gil Vicente FC
Braga		9.3%
74.8%		15.9%
+371
-129
+350
-125
1
0		-1.57745-1.55452-2.37645
Tondela
Porto		4.7%
83.8%		11.6%
+2841
-787
+2300
-950
0
4		-0.14134-0.15049-0.17720
Vitoria
Maritimo		49.1%
23.8%		27.0%
+175
+170
+165
+175
1
0		-1.05705-1.02666-0.71088
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).