Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-132
u2¾-115

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Belenenses		31.8%
35.9%		32.3%
+117
+289
+110
+285
0
0		-1.21679-1.19942-1.13020
Santa Clara
Famalicao		31.8%
40.5%		27.6%
+250
+128
+255
+120
0
0		-1.16600-1.19968-1.28591
Belenenses
Tondela		31.4%
36.2%		32.4%
+360
-109
+360
-120
1
1		-1.30752-1.30015-1.12720
Famalicao
Vitoria		20.2%
56.9%		22.9%
+190
+156
+175
+160
1
2		-0.96417-1.00550-0.56365
Porto
Pacos		68.3%
12.4%		19.2%
-309
+974
-340
+975
4
2		-0.31362-0.30750-0.38092
Maritimo
Moreirense		27.0%
44.2%		28.8%
+244
+135
+225
+135
1
0		-1.25727-1.22809-1.30859
Benfica
Portimonense		73.3%
9.5%		17.2%
-189
+547
-200
+550
2
1		-0.45260-0.45463-0.31068
Braga
Boavista		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
+117
+290
+105
+275
1
1		-1.22670-1.26058-1.68110
Santa Clara
Braga		11.0%
71.6%		17.4%
+513
-158
+455
-160
0
0		-1.40393-1.41165-1.74675
Gil Vicente FC
Porto		5.4%
82.0%		12.5%
+951
-312
+850
-310
1
1		-1.79667-1.70876-2.07928
Vitoria
Benfica		18.6%
58.9%		22.5%
+801
-297
+750
-310
0
3		-0.31811-0.33058-0.52974
Sporting CP
Maritimo		67.1%
12.7%		20.3%
-180
+613
-200
+625
1
1		-1.45060-1.45835-1.59692
Tondela
Famalicao		24.6%
49.8%		25.6%
+522
-165
+415
-145
1
2		-0.50848-0.57586-0.69681
Pacos
Belenenses		46.8%
24.5%		28.7%
+147
+232
+140
+210
2
0		-0.92357-0.92591-0.75824
Portimonense
Santa Clara		23.0%
49.0%		28.0%
+315
+106
+315
-105
1
1		-1.23354-1.25931-1.27193
Braga
Tondela		71.5%
10.8%		17.6%
-133
+399
-150
+400
1
0		-0.58415-0.55961-0.33511
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).