Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+166
+175
+155
+190
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼+108
u2¼-119

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-125
u2½-124

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Pacos		28.1%
46.0%		25.9%
+197
+165
+195
+170
1
2		-1.00854-1.04044-0.77727
Portimonense
Sporting CP		12.2%
70.8%		17.0%
+1050
-345
+1150
-380
2
3		-0.29453-0.28263-0.34545
Boavista
Vitoria		21.9%
55.0%		23.1%
+470
-150
+455
-160
1
1		-1.38071-1.41165-1.46378
Gil Vicente FC
Tondela		36.1%
35.6%		28.4%
+125
+225
+115
+240
3
0		-0.84807-0.81744-1.02004
Belenenses
Braga		14.5%
68.2%		17.3%
+1286
-455
+1300
-475
0
1		-0.24280-0.24114-0.38246
Moreirense
Boavista		39.0%
33.1%		27.9%
+165
+187
+175
+175
0
1		-1.09664-1.06025-1.10527
Maritimo
Benfica		15.8%
66.4%		17.7%
+1410
-526
+1900
-650
1
7		-0.21972-0.19189-0.40889
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		61.8%
18.2%		20.0%
-130
+440
-160
+515
3
0		-0.58817-0.53616-0.48180
Pacos
Tondela		46.1%
27.7%		26.2%
+182
+149
+185
+155
1
0		-1.08666-1.09679-0.77501
Vitoria
Santa Clara		44.4%
29.4%		26.2%
+140
+235
+130
+215
0
1		-1.22254-1.19690-1.22520
Braga
Porto		26.2%
51.8%		22.0%
+650
-227
+650
-240
0
1		-0.40236-0.39686-0.65743
Benfica
Famalicao		59.9%
21.5%		18.6%
-171
+450
-170
+465
4
1		-0.51228-0.51191-0.51183
Portimonense
Moreirense		25.4%
48.3%		26.3%
+210
+140
+230
+140
1
0		-1.17818-1.24039-1.37030
Boavista
Sporting CP		14.1%
68.3%		17.6%
+1335
-420
+1650
-550
0
2		-0.24595-0.21722-0.38139
Tondela
Vitoria		20.4%
57.2%		22.4%
+425
-170
+450
-175
2
5		-0.51602-0.51795-0.55879
Santa Clara
Maritimo		34.9%
36.9%		28.2%
+174
+170
+190
+170
1
4		-1.04760-1.04064-0.99590
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).