Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/18/2021 02:00 PM	Portimonense Famalicao	27.3% 47.6%	25.1%	+225 +140 +235 +135	1 0	-1.21963-1.25956	-1.29689
04/17/2021 07:30 PM	Braga Rio Ave	54.1% 24.0%	21.9%	-140 +375 -130 +355	0 0	-1.09638-1.09322	-1.02008
04/17/2021 05:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Benfica	15.8% 70.3%	13.9%	+1400 -455 +1500 -525	2 1	-2.74264-2.82195	-1.84820
04/17/2021 05:00 PM	Maritimo Belenenses	34.2% 33.3%	32.5%	+285 +116 +260 +125	0 2	-0.80948-0.85982	-1.10081
04/17/2021 02:30 PM	Tondela Moreirense	26.4% 46.7%	26.9%	+190 +152 +200 +150	3 2	-1.11654-1.14816	-1.33237
04/17/2021 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Vitoria	24.9% 50.7%	24.4%	+240 +133 +245 +125	0 1	-0.87098-0.86140	-0.67871
04/16/2021 08:00 PM	Sporting CP SC Farense	68.6% 16.5%	14.9%	-141 +454 -155 +450	1 0	-0.56708-0.54932	-0.37685
04/16/2021 05:45 PM	Pacos Boavista	43.2% 29.0%	27.8%	+225 +146 +210 +150	0 2	-0.93930-0.96551	-1.23822
04/11/2021 07:00 PM	Famalicao Sporting CP	17.2% 66.4%	16.4%	+575 -182 +600 -205	1 1	-1.21935-1.22066	-1.08511
04/11/2021 04:30 PM	Belenenses Braga	14.5% 68.2%	17.3%	+730 -259 +700 -250	1 1	-1.27677-1.25656	-1.15795
04/11/2021 02:30 PM	Nacional Santa Clara	28.3% 44.2%	27.4%	+431 -130 +410 -135	1 5	-0.60440-0.60150	-0.81545
04/11/2021 02:00 PM	Moreirense Gil Vicente FC	38.1% 34.2%	27.7%	+257 +119 +265 +115	2 1	-1.31423-1.34504	-0.96532
04/10/2021 07:30 PM	Benfica Pacos	51.6% 25.6%	22.8%	-213 +610 -225 +575	5 0	-0.42757-0.41746	-0.66169
04/10/2021 05:00 PM	Porto Tondela	72.5% 11.7%	15.8%	-303 +850 -290 +825	2 0	-0.32999-0.34667	-0.32154
04/10/2021 02:30 PM	Rio Ave Boavista	39.9% 31.8%	28.3%	+176 +186 +170 +180	3 3	-1.07628-1.06033	-1.03238
04/10/2021 02:00 PM	SC Farense Maritimo	29.2% 44.3%	26.5%	+145 +207 +160 +200	0 1	-1.17662-1.14863	-0.81504

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).