Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/09/2021 07:00 PM	Vitoria Portimonense	52.0% 23.4%	24.6%	+182 +160 +185 +160	0 3	-1.00687-1.01195	-1.45355
04/05/2021 08:00 PM	Sporting CP Moreirense	57.2% 21.8%	21.0%	-230 +800 -230 +800	1 1	-1.30752-1.32980	-1.04000
04/05/2021 06:00 PM	Maritimo Benfica	16.4% 68.8%	14.8%	+1700 -588 +1700 -675	0 1	-0.18455-0.18839	-0.37410
04/05/2021 05:45 PM	Braga SC Farense	67.7% 17.8%	14.5%	-130 +360 -145 +425	2 1	-0.61201-0.57235	-0.38945
04/04/2021 07:00 PM	Pacos Famalicao	39.6% 33.3%	27.0%	+197 +153 +200 +155	0 2	-0.97453-0.98305	-1.09916
04/04/2021 04:30 PM	Tondela Vitoria	20.8% 58.2%	21.0%	+375 -121 +440 -150	2 1	-1.58323-1.73693	-1.56964
04/04/2021 02:00 PM	Boavista Belenenses	32.4% 35.3%	32.3%	+215 +154 +195 +175	2 0	-1.19201-1.13392	-1.12757
04/03/2021 07:30 PM	Santa Clara Porto	12.5% 76.2%	11.3%	+1016 -338 +1100 -350	1 2	-0.30396-0.29990	-0.27143
04/03/2021 05:00 PM	Gil Vicente FC Rio Ave	27.7% 44.3%	28.1%	+234 +126 +240 +125	2 0	-1.25987-1.27357	-1.28536
04/02/2021 07:30 PM	Portimonense Nacional	30.4% 38.7%	31.0%	+164 +189 +160 +190	5 1	-1.01608-1.00622	-1.19122
03/21/2021 08:00 PM	Benfica Braga	35.2% 38.4%	26.5%	+101 +250 +115 +210	2 0	-0.74750-0.81507	-0.48386
03/21/2021 05:30 PM	SC Farense Boavista	30.4% 41.0%	28.6%	+255 +125 +220 +140	1 0	-1.31751-1.21362	-0.52768
03/21/2021 05:30 PM	Famalicao Maritimo	35.1% 36.5%	28.4%	+180 +170 +185 +175	4 0	-1.07169-1.09404	-0.45479
03/21/2021 03:00 PM	Belenenses Rio Ave	25.6% 46.0%	28.4%	+335 +100 +350 -105	0 0	-1.12790-1.13714	-0.69628
03/20/2021 08:30 PM	Vitoria Sporting CP	24.0% 53.7%	22.3%	+450 -150 +650 -195	0 1	-0.55483-0.46348	-0.62153
03/20/2021 06:00 PM	Porto Portimonense	77.2% 11.6%	11.2%	-222 +700 -235 +725	2 1	-0.41078-0.40088	-0.12295

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).