Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Moreirense		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-307
+1013
-325
+950
1
0		-0.31154-0.31745-0.31375
Famalicao
Maritimo		34.7%
36.9%		28.4%
+188
+170
+185
+155
1
0		-1.07731-1.09679-1.05702
Belenenses
Gil Vicente FC		28.2%
40.9%		30.9%
+572
-176
+560
-190
0
2		-0.48044-0.47221-0.89504
Benfica
Boavista		69.9%
11.4%		18.6%
-221
+648
-255
+700
2
2		-1.59697-1.61898-1.68099
Vitoria
Belenenses		49.1%
24.8%		26.1%
+105
+298
+105
+280
0
1		-1.40181-1.38326-1.39485
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.9%
37.1%		28.0%
+308
+113
+265
+115
0
5		-0.78095-0.81577-0.99110
Boavista
Portimonense		34.6%
33.6%		31.8%
+226
+150
+210
+150
1
1		-1.19730-1.16437-1.14514
Santa Clara
Benfica		17.5%
66.9%		15.7%
+911
-294
+825
-325
1
2		-0.31281-0.31837-0.40266
Pacos
Braga		22.7%
58.0%		19.4%
+827
-255
+785
-265
1
2		-0.36149-0.36853-0.54531
Sporting CP
Porto		27.0%
48.8%		24.2%
+341
-108
+285
+105
2
2		-1.29015-1.24327-1.42072
Belenenses
Moreirense		26.9%
45.4%		27.7%
+412
-125
+450
-135
1
4		-0.62215-0.60349-0.78858
Benfica
Tondela		64.9%
16.7%		18.5%
-275
+750
-330
+810
3
1		-0.33774-0.31467-0.43295
Famalicao
Sporting CP		17.2%
66.4%		16.4%
+1000
-310
+950
-350
0
2		-0.31466-0.30315-0.40961
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		36.1%
36.0%		28.0%
+285
+105
+310
+100
2
2		-1.26457-1.22895-1.27364
Braga
Vitoria		45.8%
30.2%		24.1%
-105
+285
+110
+260
1
2		-1.39010-1.32791-1.19852
Portimonense
Pacos		22.3%
53.6%		24.1%
+220
+156
+220
+150
1
1		-1.15903-1.13202-1.42292
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).