Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 32 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/12/2022 08:30 PM	Boavista Belenenses	31.8% 35.9%	32.3%	+117 +289 +110 +285	0 0	-1.21679-1.19942	-1.13020
03/12/2022 03:30 PM	Santa Clara Famalicao	31.8% 40.5%	27.6%	+250 +128 +255 +120	0 0	-1.16600-1.19968	-1.28591
03/07/2022 08:15 PM	Belenenses Tondela	31.4% 36.2%	32.4%	+360 -109 +360 -120	1 1	-1.30752-1.30015	-1.12720
03/06/2022 08:30 PM	Famalicao Vitoria	20.2% 56.9%	22.9%	+190 +156 +175 +160	1 2	-0.96417-1.00550	-0.56365
03/06/2022 06:00 PM	Porto Pacos	68.3% 12.4%	19.2%	-309 +974 -340 +975	4 2	-0.31362-0.30750	-0.38092
03/06/2022 03:30 PM	Maritimo Moreirense	27.0% 44.2%	28.8%	+244 +135 +225 +135	1 0	-1.25727-1.22809	-1.30859
03/05/2022 06:00 PM	Benfica Portimonense	73.3% 9.5%	17.2%	-189 +547 -200 +550	2 1	-0.45260-0.45463	-0.31068
03/05/2022 03:30 PM	Braga Boavista	69.2% 12.2%	18.6%	+117 +290 +105 +275	1 1	-1.22670-1.26058	-1.68110
02/28/2022 08:15 PM	Santa Clara Braga	11.0% 71.6%	17.4%	+513 -158 +455 -160	0 0	-1.40393-1.41165	-1.74675
02/27/2022 08:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Porto	5.4% 82.0%	12.5%	+951 -312 +850 -310	1 1	-1.79667-1.70876	-2.07928
02/27/2022 06:00 PM	Vitoria Benfica	18.6% 58.9%	22.5%	+801 -297 +750 -310	0 3	-0.31811-0.33058	-0.52974
02/26/2022 06:00 PM	Sporting CP Maritimo	67.1% 12.7%	20.3%	-180 +613 -200 +625	1 1	-1.45060-1.45835	-1.59692
02/26/2022 03:30 PM	Tondela Famalicao	24.6% 49.8%	25.6%	+522 -165 +415 -145	1 2	-0.50848-0.57586	-0.69681
02/25/2022 08:15 PM	Pacos Belenenses	46.8% 24.5%	28.7%	+147 +232 +140 +210	2 0	-0.92357-0.92591	-0.75824
02/21/2022 08:15 PM	Portimonense Santa Clara	23.0% 49.0%	28.0%	+315 +106 +315 -105	1 1	-1.23354-1.25931	-1.27193
02/20/2022 08:45 PM	Braga Tondela	71.5% 10.8%	17.6%	-133 +399 -150 +400	1 0	-0.58415-0.55961	-0.33511

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).