Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+166
+175
+155
+190
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼+108
u2¼-119

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-125
u2½-124

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Belenenses
Portimonense		34.2%
35.4%		30.3%
+400
-122
+380
-120
0
2		-0.65166-0.65710-1.03755
Famalicao
Boavista		38.4%
35.6%		26.0%
-102
+300
-105
+310
5
2		-0.72792-0.71803-0.95737
Pacos
Moreirense		38.0%
34.9%		27.1%
+220
+140
+210
+145
1
1		-1.20614-1.19448-1.30453
Portimonense
Braga		13.4%
70.8%		15.8%
+625
-210
+575
-210
0
3		-0.43320-0.43615-0.34510
Belenenses
Boavista		31.5%
39.0%		29.5%

+270
+120
0
0		-1.16648-1.22129
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		61.1%
19.7%		19.2%
-135
+375
-140
+400
1
0		-0.60135-0.58780-0.49274
Moreirense
Sporting CP		17.8%
62.8%		19.5%
+1435
-500
+1450
-500
0
1		-0.22522-0.23274-0.46553
Porto
Tondela		72.5%
11.7%		15.8%
-435
+1162
-400
+1000
3
1		-0.25720-0.27279-0.32154
Famalicao
Santa Clara		34.7%
39.6%		25.7%
+175
+165
+175
+165
2
0		-1.05734-1.05912-1.05878
Maritimo
Vitoria		23.5%
52.5%		24.0%
+600
-202
+600
-200
1
2		-0.45574-0.45751-0.64382
Boavista
Braga		15.4%
68.0%		16.6%
+740
-273
+740
-260
2
2		-1.63455-1.60864-1.79517
Portimonense
Benfica		12.6%
71.2%		16.2%
+1360
-476
+1450
-500
1
0		-2.73137-2.79116-2.06997
Tondela
Belenenses		31.8%
38.6%		29.6%
+165
+170
+170
+170
2
0		-1.02318-1.04055-1.14677
Pacos
Porto		15.5%
67.4%		17.1%
+1064
-370
+1300
-450
1
2		-0.28406-0.24909-0.39503
Vitoria
Famalicao		45.3%
30.5%		24.2%
+172
+165
+175
+150
2
1		-1.04322-1.05976-0.79169
Moreirense
Maritimo		36.8%
35.1%		28.0%
+231
+130
+255
+115
0
0		-1.23306-1.24258-1.27211
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).