Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/20/2021 03:30 PM	Moreirense Pacos	29.4% 43.2%	27.4%	+370 -115 +360 -120	0 3	-0.66499-0.65356	-0.83868
03/20/2021 03:30 PM	Tondela Santa Clara	27.7% 44.2%	28.1%	+418 -120 +400 -120	1 1	-1.15843-1.15514	-0.69998
03/19/2021 08:30 PM	Nacional Gil Vicente FC	30.0% 40.3%	29.7%	+280 +107 +310 +100	0 2	-0.78373-0.74345	-0.90949
03/15/2021 08:15 PM	Braga Famalicao	59.6% 22.7%	17.7%	-179 +534 -190 +530	2 2	-1.02292-1.02741	-0.80484
03/14/2021 08:00 PM	Pacos Porto	16.0% 69.7%	14.3%	+915 -263 +750 -260	0 2	-0.34699-0.37459	-0.20695
03/14/2021 05:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Vitoria	22.9% 54.4%	22.7%	+310 -101 +325 -105	4 2	-0.65958-0.66859	-1.21709
03/14/2021 03:00 PM	Rio Ave Moreirense	33.2% 36.3%	30.5%	+144 +224 +135 +220	1 1	-0.78372-0.78276	-0.69410
03/13/2021 08:30 PM	Sporting CP Tondela	66.9% 16.8%	16.3%	-270 +801 -275 +825	1 0	-0.11183-0.10844	-0.22361
03/13/2021 06:00 PM	Boavista Benfica	15.1% 71.3%	13.6%	+900 -335 +975 -375	0 2	-0.30005-0.28438	-0.19230
03/13/2021 06:00 PM	Portimonense Santa Clara	26.6% 45.6%	27.8%	+230 +152 +220 +150	0 2	-0.96459-0.96648	-0.46028
03/13/2021 03:30 PM	Belenenses SC Farense	33.2% 35.4%	31.3%	+227 +152 +225 +155	1 0	-0.47268-0.46718	-0.72565
03/12/2021 08:30 PM	Maritimo Nacional	35.2% 33.3%	31.5%	+166 +197 +160 +200	2 1	-0.39195-0.38136	-0.66651
03/09/2021 09:45 PM	Vitoria Braga	25.6% 52.4%	22.1%	+450 -160 +475 -175	0 3	-0.25886-0.24160	-0.39757
03/08/2021 08:15 PM	Benfica Belenenses	65.0% 17.5%	17.5%	-270 +825 -260 +800	3 0	-0.13815-0.14310	-0.23803
03/07/2021 08:00 PM	SC Farense Rio Ave	25.2% 49.5%	25.3%	+329 -106 +330 -105	0 2	-0.37363-0.37434	-0.41155
03/07/2021 05:30 PM	Moreirense Maritimo	35.5% 33.9%	30.7%	+220 +142 +210 +140	2 0	-0.84255-0.82929	-0.66992

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).