Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Games for Nov 14, 2024
Games for Nov 16, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Boavista
37.1%
34.5%
28.4%
+227
+144
+235
+135
0
3
-0.55743-0.53150-0.73135
Porto
Gil Vicente FC
73.3%
13.9%
12.8%
-263
+750
-245
+750
2
0
-0.15047-0.15330-0.17344
Tondela
Portimonense
32.8%
35.5%
31.7%
+345
-105
+350
-115
0
3
-0.36376-0.34745-0.65443
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
17.0%
66.8%
16.2%
+808
-200
+800
-240
1
2
-0.15288-0.14618-0.22683
Nacional
Pacos
23.7%
52.1%
24.2%
+435
-132
+450
-145
1
2
-0.28406-0.26789-0.37514
Belenenses
Moreirense
26.6%
45.1%
28.3%
+190
+176
+190
+170
2
2
-0.69346-0.69378-0.72734
Rio Ave
Benfica
19.3%
62.5%
18.2%
+683
-238
+850
-300
0
2
-0.16668-0.13133-0.26912
Braga
Nacional
65.4%
18.3%
16.3%
-185
+510
-190
+525
2
1
-0.22517-0.21850-0.24619
Gil Vicente FC
Tondela
34.6%
34.1%
31.3%
+155
+195
+150
+200
0
1
-0.76867-0.78847-0.69967
Maritimo
Portimonense
36.9%
31.9%
31.2%
+350
+105
+350
-110
0
0
-0.76850-0.78237-0.69578
Sporting CP
Porto
27.0%
48.8%
24.2%
+312
-104
+290
+100
0
0
-0.76046-0.74789-0.73648
Pacos
Santa Clara
38.9%
32.1%
29.0%
+175
+180
+175
+185
0
3
-0.70221-0.71117-0.79321
SC Farense
Famalicao
28.2%
47.6%
24.2%
+210
+140
+205
+140
0
0
-0.70132-0.70031-0.72708
Boavista
Vitoria
22.1%
55.6%
22.3%
+255
+119
+255
+120
1
2
-0.48051-0.48225-0.33512

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).