Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1300
-455
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-129
u2¾-118

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Maritimo
Braga		16.7%
65.8%		17.5%
+712
-280
+725
-275
1
0		-2.14712-2.15961-1.79018
Moreirense
Benfica		18.2%
62.9%		18.9%
+1460
-500
+1400
-600
1
1		-2.00130-2.12712-1.66770
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		34.2%
37.6%		28.2%
+129
+225
+130
+240
1
1		-1.22724-1.18159-1.26553
Belenenses
Famalicao		29.1%
45.1%		25.7%
+650
-200
+620
-195
0
1		-0.44231-0.46267-0.79551
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		47.6%
27.0%		25.4%
+240
+125
+225
+125
2
3		-0.84395-0.86034-1.30859
Famalicao
Braga		18.5%
65.6%		15.9%
+444
-159
+480
-170
2
2		-1.46292-1.43700-1.83860
Pacos
Benfica		21.4%
58.2%		20.4%
+1311
-500
+1400
-525
0
2		-0.23068-0.22269-0.54072
Maritimo
Portimonense		38.1%
33.0%		28.9%
+295
+105
+265
+115
2
1		-1.41589-1.34504-0.96451
Tondela
Boavista		31.3%
40.5%		28.3%
+265
+115
+290
+100
1
1		-1.24587-1.27307-1.26397
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		58.6%
20.1%		21.3%
-227
+673
-250
+800
2
3		-2.08707-2.24857-1.60261
Moreirense
Tondela		41.0%
31.3%		27.7%
+170
+180
+160
+190
1
2		-1.05705-1.11541-1.16245
Benfica
Porto		27.0%
50.0%		23.0%
+380
-130
+350
-130
1
3		-0.61343-0.61990-0.69241
Santa Clara
Pacos		28.1%
46.0%		25.9%
+197
+165
+195
+170
1
2		-1.00854-1.04044-0.77727
Portimonense
Sporting CP		12.2%
70.8%		17.0%
+1050
-345
+1150
-380
2
3		-0.29453-0.28263-0.34545
Boavista
Vitoria		21.9%
55.0%		23.1%
+470
-150
+455
-160
1
1		-1.38071-1.41165-1.46378
Gil Vicente FC
Tondela		36.1%
35.6%		28.4%
+125
+225
+115
+240
3
0		-0.84807-0.81744-1.02004
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).