Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 32 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/20/2022 08:00 PM	Porto Moreirense	73.1% 9.7%	17.2%	-307 +1013 -325 +950	1 0	-0.31154-0.31745	-0.31375
02/20/2022 03:30 PM	Famalicao Maritimo	34.7% 36.9%	28.4%	+188 +170 +185 +155	1 0	-1.07731-1.09679	-1.05702
02/19/2022 03:30 PM	Belenenses Gil Vicente FC	28.2% 40.9%	30.9%	+572 -176 +560 -190	0 2	-0.48044-0.47221	-0.89504
02/18/2022 08:15 PM	Benfica Boavista	69.9% 11.4%	18.6%	-221 +648 -255 +700	2 2	-1.59697-1.61898	-1.68099
02/13/2022 06:00 PM	Vitoria Belenenses	49.1% 24.8%	26.1%	+105 +298 +105 +280	0 1	-1.40181-1.38326	-1.39485
02/13/2022 03:30 PM	Moreirense Famalicao	34.9% 37.1%	28.0%	+308 +113 +265 +115	0 5	-0.78095-0.81577	-0.99110
02/12/2022 06:00 PM	Boavista Portimonense	34.6% 33.6%	31.8%	+226 +150 +210 +150	1 1	-1.19730-1.16437	-1.14514
02/12/2022 06:00 PM	Santa Clara Benfica	17.5% 66.9%	15.7%	+911 -294 +825 -325	1 2	-0.31281-0.31837	-0.40266
02/12/2022 03:30 PM	Pacos Braga	22.7% 58.0%	19.4%	+827 -255 +785 -265	1 2	-0.36149-0.36853	-0.54531
02/11/2022 08:15 PM	Sporting CP Porto	27.0% 48.8%	24.2%	+341 -108 +285 +105	2 2	-1.29015-1.24327	-1.42072
02/07/2022 09:15 PM	Belenenses Moreirense	26.9% 45.4%	27.7%	+412 -125 +450 -135	1 4	-0.62215-0.60349	-0.78858
02/07/2022 07:00 PM	Benfica Tondela	64.9% 16.7%	18.5%	-275 +750 -330 +810	3 1	-0.33774-0.31467	-0.43295
02/06/2022 08:30 PM	Famalicao Sporting CP	17.2% 66.4%	16.4%	+1000 -310 +950 -350	0 2	-0.31466-0.30315	-0.40961
02/06/2022 03:30 PM	Santa Clara Gil Vicente FC	36.1% 36.0%	28.0%	+285 +105 +310 +100	2 2	-1.26457-1.22895	-1.27364
02/05/2022 08:30 PM	Braga Vitoria	45.8% 30.2%	24.1%	-105 +285 +110 +260	1 2	-1.39010-1.32791	-1.19852
02/05/2022 06:00 PM	Portimonense Pacos	22.3% 53.6%	24.1%	+220 +156 +220 +150	1 1	-1.15903-1.13202	-1.42292

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).