Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+166
+173
+155
+190
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼+105
u2¼-119

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-125
u2½-124

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Famalicao		60.0%
21.0%		19.0%
-180
+548
-190
+600
1
1		-1.43050-1.43318-1.66152
Moreirense
Belenenses		39.5%
31.5%		28.9%
+121
+262
+120
+250
1
1		-1.20791-1.21456-1.24098
Santa Clara
Boavista		36.9%
34.8%		28.2%
+195
+161
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00611-1.00550-1.05446
Porto
Maritimo		68.9%
13.9%		17.2%
-220
+710
-240
+775
1
1		-1.49942-1.51000-1.76131
Portimonense
Tondela		31.6%
39.5%		28.9%
+174
+189
+160
+190
3
0		-1.03600-1.00622-1.15068
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.2%
68.2%		18.5%
+1500
-500
+1500
-500
0
2		-0.23240-0.23081-0.38227
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		61.9%
18.7%		19.4%
-150
+435
-150
+440
2
0		-0.55837-0.56138-0.48002
Braga
Moreirense		55.6%
23.2%		21.2%
-143
+400
-150
+450
3
2		-0.57796-0.56512-0.58731
Pacos
Boavista		43.9%
29.5%		26.6%
+155
+210
+150
+210
0
3		-1.16806-1.18581-1.22234
Moreirense
Santa Clara		35.3%
36.9%		27.8%
+310
+104
+325
-105
2
2		-1.24525-1.24320-1.28060
Porto
Famalicao		69.3%
15.6%		15.1%
-250
+683
-260
+725
2
1		-0.38353-0.37589-0.36671
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		37.1%
34.1%		28.7%
+215
+149
+210
+155
1
0		-1.18721-1.17837-0.99069
Sporting CP
Braga		36.4%
38.7%		25.0%
+145
+200
+155
+195
2
1		-0.94410-0.98840-1.01198
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		32.3%
39.7%		28.0%
+370
-111
+400
-120
0
3		-0.68780-0.65792-0.92455
Famalicao
Pacos		29.2%
47.0%		23.8%
+200
+165
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00728-1.00550-0.75604
Belenenses
Porto		9.4%
75.0%		15.6%
+1500
-610
+1450
-625
0
2		-0.20125-0.19872-0.28768
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).