Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1300
-455
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-129
u2¾-118

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Belenenses
Braga		14.5%
68.2%		17.3%
+1286
-455
+1300
-475
0
1		-0.24280-0.24114-0.38246
Moreirense
Boavista		39.0%
33.1%		27.9%
+165
+187
+175
+175
0
1		-1.09664-1.06025-1.10527
Maritimo
Benfica		15.8%
66.4%		17.7%
+1410
-526
+1900
-650
1
7		-0.21972-0.19189-0.40889
Sporting CP
Gil Vicente FC		61.8%
18.2%		20.0%
-130
+440
-160
+515
3
0		-0.58817-0.53616-0.48180
Pacos
Tondela		46.1%
27.7%		26.2%
+182
+149
+185
+155
1
0		-1.08666-1.09679-0.77501
Vitoria
Santa Clara		44.4%
29.4%		26.2%
+140
+235
+130
+215
0
1		-1.22254-1.19690-1.22520
Braga
Porto		26.2%
51.8%		22.0%
+650
-227
+650
-240
0
1		-0.40236-0.39686-0.65743
Benfica
Famalicao		59.9%
21.5%		18.6%
-171
+450
-170
+465
4
1		-0.51228-0.51191-0.51183
Portimonense
Moreirense		25.4%
48.3%		26.3%
+210
+140
+230
+140
1
0		-1.17818-1.24039-1.37030
Boavista
Sporting CP		14.1%
68.3%		17.6%
+1335
-420
+1650
-550
0
2		-0.24595-0.21722-0.38139
Tondela
Vitoria		20.4%
57.2%		22.4%
+425
-170
+450
-175
2
5		-0.51602-0.51795-0.55879
Santa Clara
Maritimo		34.9%
36.9%		28.2%
+174
+170
+190
+170
1
4		-1.04760-1.04064-0.99590
Gil Vicente FC
Pacos		25.8%
49.2%		25.0%
+117
+270
+110
+265
1
0		-0.81096-0.79376-1.35325
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		37.5%
36.7%		25.8%
+125
+220
+130
+215
0
4		-1.21049-1.19690-1.00169
Vitoria
Pacos		38.0%
35.4%		26.7%
+156
+189
+140
+220
2
1		-0.99269-0.92591-0.96787
Maritimo
Boavista		35.1%
36.4%		28.5%
+245
+140
+210
+150
1
1		-1.17112-1.16437-1.25506
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).