Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1400
-417
+1500
-525
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-120
u2¾-125

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Benfica		35.0%
39.6%		25.4%
+280
+112
+280
+110
3
1		-1.37484-1.38553-1.05074
Porto
Portimonense		73.1%
11.0%		15.9%
-230
+861
-270
+850
3
0		-0.37032-0.36613-0.31284
Vitoria
Porto		18.1%
63.0%		18.9%
+1000
-385
+1100
-425
1
2		-0.27867-0.26161-0.46127
Tondela
Sporting CP		13.0%
70.1%		16.9%
+1509
-600
+1300
-625
0
2		-0.20328-0.19830-0.35583
Pacos
Maritimo		41.6%
31.3%		27.1%
+221
+145
+255
+125
0
2		-0.93453-0.85849-1.16043
Portimonense
Famalicao		27.5%
47.9%		24.5%
+380
-125
+430
-140
3
0		-1.61244-1.71630-1.28953
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		29.2%
44.0%		26.8%
+192
+160
+200
+155
2
2		-1.21285-1.16709-1.31658
Braga
Benfica		33.9%
41.9%		24.2%
+424
-154
+470
-175
1
6		-0.54003-0.50069-0.86891
Sporting CP
Pacos		51.7%
25.0%		23.3%
-161
+534
-170
+625
2
0		-0.52017-0.51452-0.65989
Porto
Santa Clara		67.5%
14.9%		17.6%
-256
+791
-250
+725
3
0		-0.36060-0.38578-0.39272
Maritimo
Tondela		37.0%
34.4%		28.6%
+275
+109
+270
+110
2
4		-0.77483-0.79025-1.06729
Moreirense
Vitoria		26.5%
48.6%		24.9%
+445
-164
+490
-165
1
2		-0.52935-0.52118-0.72157
Belenenses
Portimonense		34.2%
35.4%		30.3%
+400
-122
+380
-120
0
2		-0.65166-0.65710-1.03755
Famalicao
Boavista		38.4%
35.6%		26.0%
-102
+300
-105
+310
5
2		-0.72792-0.71803-0.95737
Pacos
Moreirense		38.0%
34.9%		27.1%
+220
+140
+210
+145
1
1		-1.20614-1.19448-1.30453
Portimonense
Braga		13.4%
70.8%		15.8%
+625
-210
+575
-210
0
3		-0.43320-0.43615-0.34510
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).