Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 8, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Vitoria
Tondela 		55.5%
19.5%		25.0%
+166
+173
+155
+190
1.60
0.83		2.43
o2¼+105
u2¼-121

Sporting CP
Santa Clara 		65.1%
13.9%		21.0%
-244
+700
-240
+725
1.93
0.76		2.69
o2¼-125
u2½-123

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 7, 2025
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Tondela		38.9%
32.9%		28.2%
+143
+215
+145
+215
0
3		-1.19571-1.19448-1.11066
Portimonense
Vitoria		19.4%
58.3%		22.3%
+320
-104
+330
-105
1
0		-1.47872-1.50973-1.63938
Braga
Maritimo		59.6%
20.4%		20.0%
-125
+390
-125
+375
2
0		-0.63059-0.63828-0.51736
Benfica
Moreirense		56.5%
22.1%		21.4%
-230
+630
-275
+750
2
1		-0.40455-0.35988-0.57093
Maritimo
Sporting CP		15.9%
68.7%		15.4%
+845
-300
+875
-315
1
5		-0.32336-0.32646-0.37603
Rio Ave
Nacional		40.4%
29.5%		30.0%
-167
+435
-170
+425
2
1		-0.51478-0.51395-0.90525
SC Farense
Santa Clara		27.6%
45.8%		26.6%
+253
+107
+240
+110
0
4		-0.77375-0.79644-0.78010
Braga
Portimonense		67.3%
17.2%		15.6%
+235
+138
+200
+140
0
0		-1.05161-1.03872-1.07956
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		31.4%
38.6%		30.0%
+140
+215
+150
+200
2
1		-0.90333-0.97069-1.15776
Benfica
Vitoria		46.3%
28.7%		25.0%
+119
+217
+115
+200
3
1		-0.82123-0.81887-0.76919
Famalicao
Moreirense		32.2%
40.9%		26.9%
-112
+285
-110
+280
0
3		-1.39934-1.38725-0.89411
Belenenses
Porto		10.0%
79.8%		10.2%
+1200
-455
+1300
-500
0
4		-0.24030-0.23389-0.22536
Pacos
Tondela		45.6%
27.5%		27.0%
+134
+204
+145
+190
3
2		-0.89289-0.94631-0.78566
Vitoria
Maritimo		45.7%
27.6%		26.8%
+121
+268
+115
+275
0
0		-1.09269-1.09168-1.03630
Santa Clara
Belenenses		36.1%
32.0%		31.9%
+132
+234
+130
+230
2
0		-0.89028-0.88201-1.01860
Nacional
Famalicao		28.6%
45.5%		25.8%
+351
-133
+315
-125
0
3		-0.61164-0.63626-0.78706
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).