Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-575
+1565
-555
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2¾+100
u2¾-120

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rio Ave
Tondela		43.3%
27.1%		29.6%
+260
+120
+265
+120
1
0		-1.31390-1.34458-0.83667
Vitoria
Santa Clara		46.6%
25.8%		27.6%
+216
+156
+225
+145
0
2		-0.97128-0.94410-1.35476
Porto
Benfica		45.3%
28.4%		26.3%
+340
-103
+300
+105
2
2		-1.21797-1.21224-1.33716
Sporting CP
Braga		34.7%
38.0%		27.3%
+105
+290
+105
+265
2
2		-1.28226-1.28870-1.29986
Nacional
Moreirense		22.8%
49.7%		27.5%
+190
+160
+200
+150
1
1		-1.23018-1.19696-1.28942
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-175
+525
-175
+490
2
1		-0.48315-0.50055-0.37154
Famalicao
Rio Ave		28.6%
44.3%		27.0%
-119
+310
-115
+305
0
0		-1.38422-1.35907-1.30815
Santa Clara
Tondela		38.8%
30.8%		30.4%
+165
+215
+155
+215
2
2		-1.08028-1.12927-1.18938
Braga
Nacional		71.0%
11.1%		17.9%
-200
+525
-175
+480
2
1		-0.45800-0.50053-0.34308
Rio Ave
Porto		7.6%
77.0%		15.4%
+1900
-833
+2100
-950
0
1		-0.15072-0.14908-0.26130
Vitoria
Braga		19.8%
57.5%		22.7%
+575
-189
+540
-200
2
3		-0.46142-0.45443-0.55351
Sporting CP
Moreirense		62.6%
15.5%		21.9%
-385
+1000
-420
+1100
3
0		-0.26876-0.26334-0.46860
Moreirense
Rio Ave		29.8%
40.3%		29.9%
+120
+260
+130
+235
2
1		-0.82860-0.88242-1.20929
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+850
-312
+900
-330
0
1		-0.32143-0.31278-0.30213
Porto
Nacional		79.3%
6.4%		14.2%
-244
+700
-265
+725
1
0		-0.38317-0.37021-0.23172
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		68.2%
12.9%		18.9%
-103
+340
+110
+295
1
2		-1.53146-1.42437-2.04965
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).