Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 7, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Boavista
Rio Ave 		23.2%
48.8%		27.9%
+330
-118
+335
-115
0.84
1.35		2.19
o2¼-115
u2¼-105

Braga
Sporting CP 		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+475
-185
+475
-180
1.15
1.43		2.58
o2¾-104
u2¾-112

Games for Apr 6, 2025
Games for Apr 11, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
SC Farense
Benfica		7.0%
79.4%		13.6%
+1500
-675
+1700
-725
2
3		-0.19497-0.17860-0.23011
Gil Vicente FC
Boavista		32.4%
37.0%		30.7%
+144
+225
+140
+225
3
1		-0.94161-0.92637-1.12803
Vitoria
Moreirense		43.7%
28.1%		28.1%
+122
+255
+110
+280
2
2		-1.18469-1.21372-1.26798
Nacional
Santa Clara		24.8%
46.5%		28.6%
+370
-120
+445
-135
0
1		-0.65716-0.60508-0.76477
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		69.0%
12.1%		18.9%
-290
+750
-260
+725
3
0		-0.36152-0.37589-0.37154
Boavista
Moreirense		24.6%
47.4%		28.0%
+440
-140
+400
-130
0
1		-0.60387-0.62021-0.74676
Benfica
Rio Ave		60.4%
16.9%		22.7%
-345
+840
-350
+900
3
2		-0.31006-0.29888-0.50397
Famalicao
Sporting CP		10.1%
73.9%		16.0%
+800
-325
+1000
-325
1
3		-0.32748-0.31866-0.30213
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		34.6%
34.5%		30.8%
+193
+170
+180
+180
1
0		-1.14034-1.07614-1.06007
Braga
SC Farense		73.4%
10.3%		16.4%
+102
+290
+100
+310
1
0		-0.74767-0.74345-0.30937
Rio Ave
Famalicao		35.7%
35.6%		28.7%
+320
+101
+390
-115
0
1		-0.74053-0.67590-1.03218
Vitoria
Boavista		52.4%
21.5%		26.1%
-150
+460
-135
+420
2
1		-0.57313-0.60547-0.64649
Moreirense
Santa Clara		33.7%
35.9%		30.4%
+310
+106
+350
+100
1
1		-1.12921-1.16402-1.19099
Porto
Braga		47.8%
27.1%		25.1%
+126
+235
+110
+270
0
1		-1.26107-1.35662-1.30564
Nacional
Benfica		7.6%
77.3%		15.1%
+1100
-480
+1225
-500
0
3		-0.25425-0.23270-0.25718
Braga
Rio Ave		59.4%
18.0%		22.6%
-103
+285
-120
+310
1
2		-1.38478-1.46218-1.71424
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).