Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1700
-1200
+1900
-1000
2.98
o3¾-102
u3¾-115

1st H
31:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Moreirense
Maritimo		36.8%
35.1%		28.0%
+231
+130
+255
+115
0
0		-1.23306-1.24258-1.27211
Belenenses
Pacos		23.7%
50.7%		25.6%
+425
-125
+390
-120
2
2		-1.26525-1.24514-1.36102
Braga
Santa Clara		57.8%
21.7%		20.5%
-107
+310
-105
+300
1
1		-1.29825-1.28910-1.58314
Famalicao
Tondela		40.4%
33.7%		25.9%
-104
+292
-105
+285
2
3		-1.41940-1.39659-1.08827
Benfica
Vitoria		46.8%
28.9%		24.3%
-141
+405
-165
+425
3
1		-0.57862-0.52374-0.75971
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		70.2%
13.3%		16.5%
-241
+700
-270
+700
2
1		-0.39065-0.36837-0.35334
Maritimo
Sporting CP		15.4%
66.2%		18.4%
+1200
-360
+1200
-420
0
1		-0.27801-0.26359-0.41226
Tondela
Braga		14.2%
69.9%		15.9%
+850
-325
+900
-360
1
3		-0.31120-0.29323-0.35765
Boavista
Benfica		14.5%
68.6%		16.9%
+2500
-700
+1900
-725
1
3		-0.15780-0.17800-0.37748
Moreirense
Porto		12.9%
71.1%		16.0%
+1237
-500
+1700
-650
0
5		-0.22735-0.19152-0.34075
Gil Vicente FC
Belenenses		34.7%
35.9%		29.4%
+119
+260
+125
+230
1
1		-1.21554-1.24316-1.22394
Maritimo
Famalicao		32.4%
42.0%		25.6%
+380
-120
+375
-135
0
0		-1.32208-1.37215-1.36442
Santa Clara
Portimonense		40.0%
31.6%		28.4%
+251
+131
+260
+120
1
2		-0.88819-0.83704-1.15331
Pacos
Portimonense		47.3%
26.5%		26.2%
+240
+133
+250
+130
1
0		-1.26862-1.30001-0.74898
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		30.8%
41.7%		27.4%
+205
+160
+195
+165
0
1		-1.00570-1.02304-0.87366
Tondela
Benfica		13.4%
70.4%		16.2%
+2100
-665
+2500
-950
1
2		-0.15571-0.14742-0.35118
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).