Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1450
-500
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-122
u2¾-123

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Portimonense
Tondela		31.6%
39.5%		28.9%
+174
+189
+160
+190
3
0		-1.03600-1.00622-1.15068
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.2%
68.2%		18.5%
+1500
-500
+1500
-500
0
2		-0.23240-0.23081-0.38227
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		61.9%
18.7%		19.4%
-150
+435
-150
+440
2
0		-0.55837-0.56138-0.48002
Braga
Moreirense		55.6%
23.2%		21.2%
-143
+400
-150
+450
3
2		-0.57796-0.56512-0.58731
Pacos
Boavista		43.9%
29.5%		26.6%
+155
+210
+150
+210
0
3		-1.16806-1.18581-1.22234
Moreirense
Santa Clara		35.3%
36.9%		27.8%
+310
+104
+325
-105
2
2		-1.24525-1.24320-1.28060
Porto
Famalicao		69.3%
15.6%		15.1%
-250
+683
-260
+725
2
1		-0.38353-0.37589-0.36671
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		37.1%
34.1%		28.7%
+215
+149
+210
+155
1
0		-1.18721-1.17837-0.99069
Sporting CP
Braga		36.4%
38.7%		25.0%
+145
+200
+155
+195
2
1		-0.94410-0.98840-1.01198
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		32.3%
39.7%		28.0%
+370
-111
+400
-120
0
3		-0.68780-0.65792-0.92455
Famalicao
Pacos		29.2%
47.0%		23.8%
+200
+165
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00728-1.00550-0.75604
Belenenses
Porto		9.4%
75.0%		15.6%
+1500
-610
+1450
-625
0
2		-0.20125-0.19872-0.28768
Santa Clara
Tondela		38.9%
32.9%		28.2%
+143
+215
+145
+215
0
3		-1.19571-1.19448-1.11066
Portimonense
Vitoria		19.4%
58.3%		22.3%
+320
-104
+330
-105
1
0		-1.47872-1.50973-1.63938
Braga
Maritimo		59.6%
20.4%		20.0%
-125
+390
-125
+375
2
0		-0.63059-0.63828-0.51736
Benfica
Moreirense		56.5%
22.1%		21.4%
-230
+630
-275
+750
2
1		-0.40455-0.35988-0.57093
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).