Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1700
-1200
+1900
-1000
2.98
o3¾-102
u3¾-115

2nd H
90:00		1
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Braga		25.6%
52.4%		22.1%
+355
-129
+330
-125
0
0		-1.35023-1.38502-1.51172
Sporting CP
Famalicao		60.0%
21.0%		19.0%
-180
+548
-190
+600
1
1		-1.43050-1.43318-1.66152
Moreirense
Belenenses		39.5%
31.5%		28.9%
+121
+262
+120
+250
1
1		-1.20791-1.21456-1.24098
Santa Clara
Boavista		36.9%
34.8%		28.2%
+195
+161
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00611-1.00550-1.05446
Porto
Maritimo		68.9%
13.9%		17.2%
-220
+710
-240
+775
1
1		-1.49942-1.51000-1.76131
Portimonense
Tondela		31.6%
39.5%		28.9%
+174
+189
+160
+190
3
0		-1.03600-1.00622-1.15068
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.2%
68.2%		18.5%
+1500
-500
+1500
-500
0
2		-0.23240-0.23081-0.38227
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		61.9%
18.7%		19.4%
-150
+435
-150
+440
2
0		-0.55837-0.56138-0.48002
Braga
Moreirense		55.6%
23.2%		21.2%
-143
+400
-150
+450
3
2		-0.57796-0.56512-0.58731
Pacos
Boavista		43.9%
29.5%		26.6%
+155
+210
+150
+210
0
3		-1.16806-1.18581-1.22234
Moreirense
Santa Clara		35.3%
36.9%		27.8%
+310
+104
+325
-105
2
2		-1.24525-1.24320-1.28060
Porto
Famalicao		69.3%
15.6%		15.1%
-250
+683
-260
+725
2
1		-0.38353-0.37589-0.36671
Gil Vicente FC
Portimonense		37.1%
34.1%		28.7%
+215
+149
+210
+155
1
0		-1.18721-1.17837-0.99069
Sporting CP
Braga		36.4%
38.7%		25.0%
+145
+200
+155
+195
2
1		-0.94410-0.98840-1.01198
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		32.3%
39.7%		28.0%
+370
-111
+400
-120
0
3		-0.68780-0.65792-0.92455
Famalicao
Pacos		29.2%
47.0%		23.8%
+200
+165
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00728-1.00550-0.75604
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).