Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1500
-500
+1450
-500
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-120
u2¾-123

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Maritimo
Sporting CP		15.9%
68.7%		15.4%
+845
-300
+875
-315
1
5		-0.32336-0.32646-0.37603
Rio Ave
Nacional		40.4%
29.5%		30.0%
-167
+435
-170
+425
2
1		-0.51478-0.51395-0.90525
SC Farense
Santa Clara		27.6%
45.8%		26.6%
+253
+107
+240
+110
0
4		-0.77375-0.79644-0.78010
Braga
Portimonense		67.3%
17.2%		15.6%
+235
+138
+200
+140
0
0		-1.05161-1.03872-1.07956
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		31.4%
38.6%		30.0%
+140
+215
+150
+200
2
1		-0.90333-0.97069-1.15776
Benfica
Vitoria		46.3%
28.7%		25.0%
+119
+217
+115
+200
3
1		-0.82123-0.81887-0.76919
Famalicao
Moreirense		32.2%
40.9%		26.9%
-112
+285
-110
+280
0
3		-1.39934-1.38725-0.89411
Belenenses
Porto		10.0%
79.8%		10.2%
+1200
-455
+1300
-500
0
4		-0.24030-0.23389-0.22536
Pacos
Tondela		45.6%
27.5%		27.0%
+134
+204
+145
+190
3
2		-0.89289-0.94631-0.78566
Vitoria
Maritimo		45.7%
27.6%		26.8%
+121
+268
+115
+275
0
0		-1.09269-1.09168-1.03630
Santa Clara
Belenenses		36.1%
32.0%		31.9%
+132
+234
+130
+230
2
0		-0.89028-0.88201-1.01860
Nacional
Famalicao		28.6%
45.5%		25.8%
+351
-133
+315
-125
0
3		-0.61164-0.63626-0.78706
Porto
Rio Ave		66.1%
17.3%		16.7%
-227
+710
-240
+700
3
0		-0.40176-0.40004-0.41421
Sporting CP
Benfica		34.0%
38.5%		27.6%
+311
-105
+310
-110
3
4		-0.70556-0.69866-0.95508
Portimonense
Boavista		29.3%
40.8%		29.9%
+216
+144
+215
+140
0
1		-0.92541-0.92576-0.89725
Tondela
SC Farense		33.1%
36.9%		30.0%
+560
-196
+550
-210
0
1		-0.44469-0.44158-0.99653
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).