Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Pacos		29.2%
47.0%		23.8%
+200
+165
+200
+160
0
2		-1.00728-1.00550-0.75604
Belenenses
Porto		9.4%
75.0%		15.6%
+1500
-610
+1450
-625
0
2		-0.20125-0.19872-0.28768
Santa Clara
Tondela		38.9%
32.9%		28.2%
+143
+215
+145
+215
0
3		-1.19571-1.19448-1.11066
Portimonense
Vitoria		19.4%
58.3%		22.3%
+320
-104
+330
-105
1
0		-1.47872-1.50973-1.63938
Braga
Maritimo		59.6%
20.4%		20.0%
-125
+390
-125
+375
2
0		-0.63059-0.63828-0.51736
Benfica
Moreirense		56.5%
22.1%		21.4%
-230
+630
-275
+750
2
1		-0.40455-0.35988-0.57093
Maritimo
Sporting CP		15.9%
68.7%		15.4%
+845
-300
+875
-315
1
5		-0.32336-0.32646-0.37603
Rio Ave
Nacional		40.4%
29.5%		30.0%
-167
+435
-170
+425
2
1		-0.51478-0.51395-0.90525
SC Farense
Santa Clara		27.6%
45.8%		26.6%
+253
+107
+240
+110
0
4		-0.77375-0.79644-0.78010
Braga
Portimonense		67.3%
17.2%		15.6%
+235
+138
+200
+140
0
0		-1.05161-1.03872-1.07956
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		31.4%
38.6%		30.0%
+140
+215
+150
+200
2
1		-0.90333-0.97069-1.15776
Benfica
Vitoria		46.3%
28.7%		25.0%
+119
+217
+115
+200
3
1		-0.82123-0.81887-0.76919
Famalicao
Moreirense		32.2%
40.9%		26.9%
-112
+285
-110
+280
0
3		-1.39934-1.38725-0.89411
Belenenses
Porto		10.0%
79.8%		10.2%
+1200
-455
+1300
-500
0
4		-0.24030-0.23389-0.22536
Pacos
Tondela		45.6%
27.5%		27.0%
+134
+204
+145
+190
3
2		-0.89289-0.94631-0.78566
Vitoria
Maritimo		45.7%
27.6%		26.8%
+121
+268
+115
+275
0
0		-1.09269-1.09168-1.03630
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).