Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1300
-455
+1450
-500
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-119
u2½+100

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Moreirense
Braga		19.6%
63.4%		17.0%
+692
-260
+600
-270
1
2		-0.35625-0.36807-0.45528
Gil Vicente FC
Pacos		25.8%
49.1%		25.2%
+160
+196
+160
+200
2
0		-0.99463-1.00550-1.35588
Famalicao
Vitoria		25.9%
51.9%		22.2%
+169
+175
+175
+170
2
1		-1.03631-1.06178-1.35209
Boavista
Sporting CP		14.7%
71.2%		14.0%
+1039
-320
+950
-325
0
1		-0.30426-0.31745-0.33906
Benfica
Nacional		66.3%
17.4%		16.3%
-255
+700
-270
+675
3
1		-0.36586-0.36489-0.41077
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.7%
34.1%		31.2%
+229
+136
+220
+135
0
1		-0.89806-0.90372-1.07649
Belenenses
Tondela		32.0%
35.6%		32.4%
+191
+170
+200
+165
3
1		-1.11021-1.14709-1.13837
SC Farense
Porto		9.5%
82.8%		7.8%
+860
-300
+850
-320
1
5		-0.32795-0.32296-0.18908
Moreirense
Portimonense		41.3%
29.4%		29.3%
+415
-125
+380
-130
2
1		-1.66845-1.61868-0.88341
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		62.4%
20.1%		17.5%
-118
+330
-125
+350
1
1		-1.08656-1.10001-1.03836
Maritimo
Pacos		26.5%
47.5%		26.0%
+232
+144
+230
+135
1
1		-1.08728-1.07404-1.03591
Tondela
Boavista		30.5%
39.4%		30.1%
+290
+105
+300
+100
1
1		-1.08126-1.09140-1.05916
Santa Clara
Famalicao		33.2%
39.2%		27.6%
+226
+130
+210
+135
0
1		-0.87827-0.90429-0.93621
Vitoria
SC Farense		52.6%
24.3%		23.1%
+229
+130
+230
+125
2
2		-1.04423-1.05171-1.02812
Porto
Benfica		42.8%
31.1%		26.1%
+195
+143
+195
+145
1
1		-1.02606-1.03790-1.00868
Portimonense
Belenenses		29.6%
38.6%		31.9%
+179
+234
+180
+220
0
1		-1.22721-1.21598-0.95295
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).