Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Belenenses		36.1%
32.0%		31.9%
+132
+234
+130
+230
2
0		-0.89028-0.88201-1.01860
Nacional
Famalicao		28.6%
45.5%		25.8%
+351
-133
+315
-125
0
3		-0.61164-0.63626-0.78706
Porto
Rio Ave		66.1%
17.3%		16.7%
-227
+710
-240
+700
3
0		-0.40176-0.40004-0.41421
Sporting CP
Benfica		34.0%
38.5%		27.6%
+311
-105
+310
-110
3
4		-0.70556-0.69866-0.95508
Portimonense
Boavista		29.3%
40.8%		29.9%
+216
+144
+215
+140
0
1		-0.92541-0.92576-0.89725
Tondela
SC Farense		33.1%
36.9%		30.0%
+560
-196
+550
-210
0
1		-0.44469-0.44158-0.99653
Moreirense
Braga		19.6%
63.4%		17.0%
+692
-260
+600
-270
1
2		-0.35625-0.36807-0.45528
Gil Vicente FC
Pacos		25.8%
49.1%		25.2%
+160
+196
+160
+200
2
0		-0.99463-1.00550-1.35588
Famalicao
Vitoria		25.9%
51.9%		22.2%
+169
+175
+175
+170
2
1		-1.03631-1.06178-1.35209
Boavista
Sporting CP		14.7%
71.2%		14.0%
+1039
-320
+950
-325
0
1		-0.30426-0.31745-0.33906
Benfica
Nacional		66.3%
17.4%		16.3%
-255
+700
-270
+675
3
1		-0.36586-0.36489-0.41077
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.7%
34.1%		31.2%
+229
+136
+220
+135
0
1		-0.89806-0.90372-1.07649
Belenenses
Tondela		32.0%
35.6%		32.4%
+191
+170
+200
+165
3
1		-1.11021-1.14709-1.13837
SC Farense
Porto		9.5%
82.8%		7.8%
+860
-300
+850
-320
1
5		-0.32795-0.32296-0.18908
Moreirense
Portimonense		41.3%
29.4%		29.3%
+415
-125
+380
-130
2
1		-1.66845-1.61868-0.88341
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		62.4%
20.1%		17.5%
-118
+330
-125
+350
1
1		-1.08656-1.10001-1.03836
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).